Re: [Paddlewise] Kayaking safety

Dan wrote;

(SNIP)

>>
>> from Dr. Wilde's book:  "one's increased belief in personal skills
>> increases risk taking out of proportion to real risk."
>>
>> This is exactly what I was talking about.
>
>This quote seems somewhat out of context, at least as a statement of a
>general proposition.  For example, Wilde points out that the most
>skilled drivers of all--racing drivers--have higher accident rates (on
>public roads) than less skilled drivers. He rejects, however, the
>explanation that this is due to overconfidence, prefering instead to
>attribute the result to differences in risk targets:

This is a great point. I suspect the dividing line between "risk takers" -
those who actively seek risk - and the rest of us is a bit fuzzy. The
Tsunami Rangers are definitly a different breed but there must be a lot of
people who edge into but don't quite fully enter that category. It may even
be that the fuzzy area is the most dangerous.


(SNIP)

>Finally, if you are to be consistent in your application of Wilde's
>analysis, you should acknowledge that all of your talk of grave dangers
>awaiting ill-informed paddlers may contribute to the problem.  Warnings
>can be counterproductive if they exaggerate the risk.  As Wilde
>explains:
>
> "This is why over-use of warnings may be dangerous. A warning that is
>not perceived as needed will not be heeded--even when it is needed.
>...
> Similarly, 'a warning can increase danger when it overstates danger',
> meaning that a person's behaviour may become less cautious if that
> person has learned that the danger is usually less great than stated
>in
> the warning."

>The bottom line is that warnings are useful and productive only to the
>extent that the danger is not overstated. This is something that we
>should all keep in mind.

This is a real problem in paddling. Many people will never experience any
real danger when paddling. The converse is that if we don't warn about the
dangers then they might find out about them too quickly. This is why the
process of methodical risk assessment might be valuable. It might help one
to make a better decision regarding risks.  This is why a risk assessment
protocol  might be helpful.

Yesterday two girls disappeared while paddling a kayak from Oro Beach to
Kempenfelt Bay on Lake Simcoe. According to the news report the water
temperature was 15 C. The air temperature was 26 C. The winds were
Northwest gusting to 50 Km and blowing offshore. They had little
experience, were paddling a  "toy" kayak (one that is intended for messing
about at the cottage). They had only one paddle between them, no life
jackets and were dressed in swimsuits with "T" shirts.

There will be an inquest to determine fault.


Cheers,
John Winters
Redwing Designs
Specialists in Human Powered Watercraft
http://home.ican.net/~735769/



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