[Paddlewise] There but for . . . go I

Paul's post about his adventure off of Croton struck a chord with me, 
since I make a solo bike and kayak commute across the Tappan Zee, just 
south of there, two or three times a week.  The only reason I wasnt 
out there on Monday the 29th was because the marine forecast that 
morning was calling for small craft advisories for 20-25 kt 
southerlies  _and_  probable T-storms, and two loaded dice were more 
than I was willing to roll.  Ironically, I felt gypped by the 
forecast at the end of the day, because the 20-25 kts never 
materialized, at least outside of the storms.

   Like Paul., I have a lot of small boat and outdoors experience, 
but less kayak experience than most people on this list.  I also have 
ten years of sailing experience on the Hudson River in cruising 
sailboats, including not a 
few thunderboomers.  Some random thoughts . . .

   Six foot waves sounds high.  I dont think the Hudson ever gets 
waves that high -- there simply isnt enough fetch and depth to 
support them.  I was looking at a wave calculation chart a few weeks 
ago for some other project, and  the maximum, fully developed sea 
state for the ten mile fetch of Haverstraw Bay wasnt more than about 
6 feet.  That would require hurricane force winds blowing for several 
hours.  Waves look huge from a kayak  -- I know this from having 
paddled and sailed in the same conditions.  Remember that waves "over 
your head" in a kayak are really only 2-3' high.
   I am not minimizing the destructive force of Hudson River waves 
here by any means.  What the Hudson does get is very steep waves, as 
there is a strong  tidal current.  When the current opposes the 
waves, you get steep a steep, breaking chop that is probably much 
more difficult to deal with than much higher waves on the ocean.

  A 4 knot current is also unlikely.  Eldridges shows the maximum 
Hudson River currents off of Manhattan, where the river is much 
narrower, to be about 2.5 knots.  June 29 would have been close to 
the neap tide.  I have watched the knot meter on my sailboat while 
anchored across from Croton point, and it hasnt gotten above 1 knot.  
Hudson tides are strong, but they arent _that_ strong.

   The kind of storm that hit Paul is quite common during summer 
time.  53 knot gusts are believable.  Croton Point is a notorious 
wind funnel (windsurfers love the area), and gusts here can easily 
reach twice the prevailing wind speed elsewhere.

     I have tried to eyeball and 
dodge these storms before in my sailboat (never in my kayak).  
As Paul learned, it is really hard to predict where they will go.  
But you usually get some warning.  Some ominous signs that an alert 
paddler might have noticed were 1) if the dividing line  between 
clear sky and thuderhead appeared to be directly overhead, you are in 
trouble already, and should paddle directly for shore; 2) if 
Haverstraw (about 3 - 4 miles away) had disappeared into a rain 
squall, you are in trouble, and should paddle directly for  shore.  
(The Hudson is less than 1.5 miles wide at Croton Point); 3) if there 
are cumulo-nimbus clouds to the south of the blue sky and to the 
north, you are not likely to dodge all of the bullets. 

    Another clue, though probably hard to see from a kayak in the 
water, is disturbed water in the distance.  Last year I was about to 
leave the dock in my sailboat in a similar weather pattern when I 
noticed white water 3-4 miles away up at Croton.  Even though the 
wind at the dock was light, I lashed the sails and put out extra dock 
lines,  We had about 5 minutes before the fury hit.  Afterwards, we 
went sailing.  Check the horizon from your kayak -- disturbed water 
will show up as a lumpy horizon, even if the water around you is 
flat.  Even in a landlocked water like the Hudson, the kayaker's eye 
view horizon is only about 2 miles away, and will show up against the 
backdrop of shore.

   Also, why paddle out into the middle of the river when the weather is 
threatening?  I am not one to talk, since my commuter run takes me 
straight across the River twice a day, but if I were paddling for 
pleasure on a day that was at all threatening, I would stay a stones 
throw from shore the whole time.  That's where all the interesting 
stuff on the Hudson goes on, anyway.

  I paddle solo.  There is some extra risk with this, but, like some 
other posters, I am not sure that a companion would have been able to 
do anything more than provide moral support in the conditions 
described.  More likely, any companion would have also been in the 
water, and in addition to worrying about myself, I would be worrying 
about my companion as well.  Having a paddling buddy increases the 
chances of rescue in moderate (not severe) conditions, and also 
increases the chances that one paddler will make it to shore to start 
the S&R for the other.  Paul's buddy performed that function.  I 
always let someone know where I am and when I will get in, so that if 
I go missing someone will notice.

   Once the storm hit, a capsize was probably inevitable, especially 
with no spray skirt.  It doesnt take that much of steep sea to start 
washing into the cockpit, even if the rain doesnt swamp you.  A spray 
skirt might have increased survivability.  It's routine for me, even 
on the hottest, calmest day (you never know when you'll get  a motor 
boat wake, or you will want to do a practice roll)   Also, I wonder if heading 
into the wind might have reduced the chances of getting broadsided 
and capsizing.  It would be impossible to make headway, but it might 
have been possible to keep the boat pointed into the wind, at least 
if the paddle didnt blow out of your hands.

  A pre-rigged sea anchor might also have saved the day by keeping 
the bow pointed into the wind, but I doubt 
anyone paddling on the Hudson would bother.  I certainly dont.  Maybe 
if I were seeking out these kinds of extreme conditions.

  Once capsized, a roll probably would not have helped, since the 
conditions were still horrible.  A paddle float re-enter and roll, 
then using the paddle float to stabilize the flooded kayak, might 
have worked.  In extreme conditions, inflating the paddle float _and_ 
holding on to the kayak at the same time might have been a real 
challenge.   Once in the water with a PFD, this 
kind of storm seems pretty survivable, if frightening.  Paul got into 
some trouble because his paddle leash got caught on his foot.  I 
think this probably pulled his foot up and his head under.  But if 
he were completely separated from the boat, with a PFD, it would just 
be a matter of getting your head up to breath regularly; probably 
like swimming just outside the surf line in breakers.  At least the 
water is warm this time of year (close to 70).  Again, the seas, 
though steep, are probably not much more than 3-4'.  (Those who read 
"A Perfect Storm" mgiht remember that the Coast Guard routinely sends 
rescue "swimmers" out into 100' seas, and the rescue-ees are likewise 
commanded to jump in the water).  Once in the water, you have to 
get to shore before hypothermia sets in, which is probably over an 
hour in these circumstances, and less than a mile.  Paul did it while 
towing a kayak.   But what do I know, having never actually gone 
swimming in such a storm?.   Forunately, this kind of storm is usually shortlived 
-- around 20 minutes or so, then you can count on flat calm to 
return.  

  A few other thoughts.  If you have internet access before you 
launch, you can get 
NEXRAD radar images, updated every half hour or so.  Try this link:

http://www.intellicast.com/weather/lga/nexrad/

If there is severe weather coming, it will show up and you can plan 
accordingly.  This is even better than the NOAA forecasts, which are 
not as up-to-the-minute, but make sure you check the time of the 
image to be sure it is current.

  Finally, there has been some discussion about leashing paddles and 
leashing kayakers to the boat.  All these leashes can catch on feet 
and things.  I have no leashes or lines on my deck.  One solution 
might be to carry a carefully coiled line on your pfd with a clip at 
the end, which you might voluntarily clip to your grab line if 
conditions warrant, but which otherwise stays tucked out of trouble.

I do leash my paddle to my wrist.  There has not been much discussion 
of the risks of doing so.  The leash is loose enough that I could 
dump the paddle easily if need be.  Obviously, this will not keep me 
with my kayak, but increases the likelihood that I will have paddle 
in hand if I need it to roll, or for a paddle float reenter and roll 
-- assuming I can get a hand on my kayak.

I'd like to thank Paul for sharing his experience with all of us -- 
it isnt easy to admit you made such a big goof with the weather.  
None of these comments are meant to be critical -- it could easily 
have been me out there.  Just some suggestions and thoughts.


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