Paul's post about his adventure off of Croton struck a chord with me, since I make a solo bike and kayak commute across the Tappan Zee, just south of there, two or three times a week. The only reason I wasnt out there on Monday the 29th was because the marine forecast that morning was calling for small craft advisories for 20-25 kt southerlies _and_ probable T-storms, and two loaded dice were more than I was willing to roll. Ironically, I felt gypped by the forecast at the end of the day, because the 20-25 kts never materialized, at least outside of the storms. Like Paul., I have a lot of small boat and outdoors experience, but less kayak experience than most people on this list. I also have ten years of sailing experience on the Hudson River in cruising sailboats, including not a few thunderboomers. Some random thoughts . . . Six foot waves sounds high. I dont think the Hudson ever gets waves that high -- there simply isnt enough fetch and depth to support them. I was looking at a wave calculation chart a few weeks ago for some other project, and the maximum, fully developed sea state for the ten mile fetch of Haverstraw Bay wasnt more than about 6 feet. That would require hurricane force winds blowing for several hours. Waves look huge from a kayak -- I know this from having paddled and sailed in the same conditions. Remember that waves "over your head" in a kayak are really only 2-3' high. I am not minimizing the destructive force of Hudson River waves here by any means. What the Hudson does get is very steep waves, as there is a strong tidal current. When the current opposes the waves, you get steep a steep, breaking chop that is probably much more difficult to deal with than much higher waves on the ocean. A 4 knot current is also unlikely. Eldridges shows the maximum Hudson River currents off of Manhattan, where the river is much narrower, to be about 2.5 knots. June 29 would have been close to the neap tide. I have watched the knot meter on my sailboat while anchored across from Croton point, and it hasnt gotten above 1 knot. Hudson tides are strong, but they arent _that_ strong. The kind of storm that hit Paul is quite common during summer time. 53 knot gusts are believable. Croton Point is a notorious wind funnel (windsurfers love the area), and gusts here can easily reach twice the prevailing wind speed elsewhere. I have tried to eyeball and dodge these storms before in my sailboat (never in my kayak). As Paul learned, it is really hard to predict where they will go. But you usually get some warning. Some ominous signs that an alert paddler might have noticed were 1) if the dividing line between clear sky and thuderhead appeared to be directly overhead, you are in trouble already, and should paddle directly for shore; 2) if Haverstraw (about 3 - 4 miles away) had disappeared into a rain squall, you are in trouble, and should paddle directly for shore. (The Hudson is less than 1.5 miles wide at Croton Point); 3) if there are cumulo-nimbus clouds to the south of the blue sky and to the north, you are not likely to dodge all of the bullets. Another clue, though probably hard to see from a kayak in the water, is disturbed water in the distance. Last year I was about to leave the dock in my sailboat in a similar weather pattern when I noticed white water 3-4 miles away up at Croton. Even though the wind at the dock was light, I lashed the sails and put out extra dock lines, We had about 5 minutes before the fury hit. Afterwards, we went sailing. Check the horizon from your kayak -- disturbed water will show up as a lumpy horizon, even if the water around you is flat. Even in a landlocked water like the Hudson, the kayaker's eye view horizon is only about 2 miles away, and will show up against the backdrop of shore. Also, why paddle out into the middle of the river when the weather is threatening? I am not one to talk, since my commuter run takes me straight across the River twice a day, but if I were paddling for pleasure on a day that was at all threatening, I would stay a stones throw from shore the whole time. That's where all the interesting stuff on the Hudson goes on, anyway. I paddle solo. There is some extra risk with this, but, like some other posters, I am not sure that a companion would have been able to do anything more than provide moral support in the conditions described. More likely, any companion would have also been in the water, and in addition to worrying about myself, I would be worrying about my companion as well. Having a paddling buddy increases the chances of rescue in moderate (not severe) conditions, and also increases the chances that one paddler will make it to shore to start the S&R for the other. Paul's buddy performed that function. I always let someone know where I am and when I will get in, so that if I go missing someone will notice. Once the storm hit, a capsize was probably inevitable, especially with no spray skirt. It doesnt take that much of steep sea to start washing into the cockpit, even if the rain doesnt swamp you. A spray skirt might have increased survivability. It's routine for me, even on the hottest, calmest day (you never know when you'll get a motor boat wake, or you will want to do a practice roll) Also, I wonder if heading into the wind might have reduced the chances of getting broadsided and capsizing. It would be impossible to make headway, but it might have been possible to keep the boat pointed into the wind, at least if the paddle didnt blow out of your hands. A pre-rigged sea anchor might also have saved the day by keeping the bow pointed into the wind, but I doubt anyone paddling on the Hudson would bother. I certainly dont. Maybe if I were seeking out these kinds of extreme conditions. Once capsized, a roll probably would not have helped, since the conditions were still horrible. A paddle float re-enter and roll, then using the paddle float to stabilize the flooded kayak, might have worked. In extreme conditions, inflating the paddle float _and_ holding on to the kayak at the same time might have been a real challenge. Once in the water with a PFD, this kind of storm seems pretty survivable, if frightening. Paul got into some trouble because his paddle leash got caught on his foot. I think this probably pulled his foot up and his head under. But if he were completely separated from the boat, with a PFD, it would just be a matter of getting your head up to breath regularly; probably like swimming just outside the surf line in breakers. At least the water is warm this time of year (close to 70). Again, the seas, though steep, are probably not much more than 3-4'. (Those who read "A Perfect Storm" mgiht remember that the Coast Guard routinely sends rescue "swimmers" out into 100' seas, and the rescue-ees are likewise commanded to jump in the water). Once in the water, you have to get to shore before hypothermia sets in, which is probably over an hour in these circumstances, and less than a mile. Paul did it while towing a kayak. But what do I know, having never actually gone swimming in such a storm?. Forunately, this kind of storm is usually shortlived -- around 20 minutes or so, then you can count on flat calm to return. A few other thoughts. If you have internet access before you launch, you can get NEXRAD radar images, updated every half hour or so. Try this link: http://www.intellicast.com/weather/lga/nexrad/ If there is severe weather coming, it will show up and you can plan accordingly. This is even better than the NOAA forecasts, which are not as up-to-the-minute, but make sure you check the time of the image to be sure it is current. Finally, there has been some discussion about leashing paddles and leashing kayakers to the boat. All these leashes can catch on feet and things. I have no leashes or lines on my deck. One solution might be to carry a carefully coiled line on your pfd with a clip at the end, which you might voluntarily clip to your grab line if conditions warrant, but which otherwise stays tucked out of trouble. I do leash my paddle to my wrist. There has not been much discussion of the risks of doing so. The leash is loose enough that I could dump the paddle easily if need be. Obviously, this will not keep me with my kayak, but increases the likelihood that I will have paddle in hand if I need it to roll, or for a paddle float reenter and roll -- assuming I can get a hand on my kayak. I'd like to thank Paul for sharing his experience with all of us -- it isnt easy to admit you made such a big goof with the weather. None of these comments are meant to be critical -- it could easily have been me out there. Just some suggestions and thoughts. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
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