Julio wrote: > Just to clarify my point, I am not saying that PFD's should not be used. > PFD's are very valuable to help rescuing victims, and it is a good idea > to wear them all the time. But I refuse to believe that the lack of a PFD > is the cause of any fatality, specially in regards to type III's. > Since Julio refuses to believe, attempts to convince him of his errors are a waste of bandwidth. However, since there may be some wiser souls out there in PaddleWise cyberspace, I have a few comments. Multiple causation is easily demonstrable for most if not all accidents. The multiple contributing causes for this specific accident have been discussed elsewhere. A statement that the lack of a PFD is *THE* cause of this or any kayaking accident is clearly and logically false. However, the failure to properly wear a PFD is clearly a contributing factor to this and most boating fatalities. Safety measures, PFDs, flares, paddling skills, or whatever, are not garantees of everlasting life, they are simply risk reduction tools that increase the probability of a desireable outcome or decrease the unwanted effects of boating accidents. Whether or not the use of a PFD would have saved the kayaker in question can never be known. We could, of course, construct experiments to test whether various risk reduction tools are cost effective. IMHO such discussions are best conducted as hypothetical conversation over cold beer, fine wine or single malt scotch. Dana Dickson *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
In a message dated 98-10-07 11:00:39 EDT, dana.dickson_at_unisys.com writes: << Multiple causation is easily demonstrable for most if not all accidents. The multiple contributing causes for this specific accident have been discussed elsewhere. A statement that the lack of a PFD is *THE* cause of this or any kayaking accident is clearly and logically false. However, the failure to properly wear a PFD is clearly a contributing factor to this and most boating fatalities. >> Dana's response is one of the clearest and most logical posts yet in this thread, and is very much appreciated. As an aircraft accident investigator, I agree with him completely on his analysis of "multiple cause" factors. In response to a couple of requests for assistance, I have spent a few hours during the past few weeks canvassing the Coast Guard for accident data, have had some luck, and will publish to this list a brief synopsis of what I've obtained so far as soon as I can get the time. However, to Dana's point that not wearing PFDs is "... clearly a contributing factor to this and <most> boating fatalities (italics mine)," the following quote from the '97 synopsis of the USCG's Recreational Boating Accident Statistics - 1997: "Eighty-six more boaters drowned in 1997 than in 1996, a total of 586 drowning victims. Approximately nine out of ten of those drowning victims were not reported wearing a life jacket." Yup, <most>. More later. Jack Martin *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
On Wed, Oct 07, 1998 at 11:41:55AM -0400, JCMARTIN43_at_aol.com wrote: > Dana's response is one of the clearest and most logical posts yet in this > thread, and is very much appreciated. As an aircraft accident investigator, I > agree with him completely on his analysis of "multiple cause" factors. I concur. (I'm not an aircraft accident investigator, but I have some familiarity with nondeterministic reasoning.) I'm probably going to cut-and-paste that one into my quotes compilation. ---Rsk Rich Kulawiec rsk_at_gsp.org *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
Thanks to Dana for clarifying this issue. That post is 100% accurate to the best of my knowledge. - Julio > > Multiple causation is easily demonstrable for most if not all accidents. > The multiple contributing causes for this specific accident have been > discussed elsewhere. A statement that the lack of a PFD is *THE* cause of > this or any kayaking accident is clearly and logically false. However, the > failure to properly wear a PFD is clearly a contributing factor to this and > most boating fatalities. Safety measures, PFDs, flares, paddling skills, or > whatever, are not garantees of everlasting life, they are simply risk > reduction tools that increase the probability of a desireable outcome or > decrease the unwanted effects of boating accidents. Whether or not the use > of a PFD would have saved the kayaker in question can never be known. We > could, of course, construct experiments to test whether various risk > reduction tools are cost effective. IMHO such discussions are best > conducted as hypothetical conversation over cold beer, fine wine or single > malt scotch. > > Dana Dickson *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
Dana: > ><< Multiple causation is easily demonstrable for most if not all accidents. "multiple cause" factors. Jack: >Approximately nine out of ten of those drowning victims were not reported >wearing a life jacket." Yup, <most>. > >More later. > If you can, get the alcohol stats too. Isn't it a factor in about 50% of the drownings? Some other significant contributing factors are (a) cold water (b) novice (c) expert doing extreme stuff (d) natural causes (e) heat stroke (f) existing medical condition Are there others? what's new? One Example: Near Drownin by Kevin P. Rose. 29 Mar 96 23:40:42 EST http://www.anbg.gov.au/jrc/kayak/wave/0047.html bbb *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
In a message dated 98-10-07 20:51:19 EDT, foxhill_at_shore.intercom.net writes: << > ><< Multiple causation is easily demonstrable for most if not all accidents. "multiple cause" factors. Jack: >Approximately nine out of ten of those drowning victims were not reported >wearing a life jacket." Yup, <most>. > >More later. > If you can, get the alcohol stats too. Isn't it a factor in about 50% of the drownings? Some other significant contributing factors are (a) cold water (b) novice (c) expert doing extreme stuff (d) natural causes (e) heat stroke (f) existing medical condition Are there others? what's new? >> The USCG has it sorted by everything but blood type, Larry. It's going to take a while to make this stuff meaningful to kayakers. But, yes --- alcohol use is one of the sorts involved in the data. As is operator inexperience and inattention, and excessive speed ---which, eyeballed, looks like maybe 40% of the totals. By type of boat, open motorboat had about a third of the accidents, PWCs another third --- hey, gang, <there's> a surprise, and then everybody else. Really will get this out soon. Jack Jack *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
In a message dated 98-10-07 20:51:19 EDT, foxhill_at_shore.intercom.net writes: << > ><< Multiple causation is easily demonstrable for most if not all accidents. "multiple cause" factors. Jack: >Approximately nine out of ten of those drowning victims were not reported >wearing a life jacket." Yup, <most>. > >More later. > If you can, get the alcohol stats too. Isn't it a factor in about 50% of the drownings? Some other significant contributing factors are (a) cold water (b) novice (c) expert doing extreme stuff (d) natural causes (e) heat stroke (f) existing medical condition Are there others? what's new? >> The USCG has it sorted by everything but blood type, Larry. It's going to take a while to make this stuff meaningful to kayakers. But, yes --- alcohol use is one of the sorts involved in the data. As is operator inexperience and inattention, and excessive speed ---which, eyeballed, looks like maybe 40% of the totals. By type of boat, open motorboat had about a third of the accidents, PWCs another third --- hey, gang, <there's> a surprise, and then everybody else. Really will get this out soon. Jack Jack *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
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