Re: [Paddlewise] Weather

dkruger_at_pacifier.com wrote:

> What I'm suggesting is that an understanding of weather patterns and
> developing the ability to "anticipate" possible changes in the weather is a
> slowly-acquired skill.  This is the kind of stuff that demands a learning
> cycle approach:  learn a little theory, go out and test it in the field, go
> back and learn a little more theory, back to the field (etc.).  Lectures on
> weather are relatively ineffective in building field-worthy, useful weather
> competency.

You can do this yourself or in groups.
Every time you go outside, look around and try to understand what the
weather is right now. Next, guess what the weather will be in one hour.
Check and see if you were right. If you were right, try to explain why
you were right. If you were wrong, try to understand what clues you 
might have overlooked.

In a class, the instructor can ask the students to predict what the 
weather will be in an hour or two and why they make the prediction 
they do. Each student will see (and feel) different things and everyone
will have something to add. At the appointed time check and see who is
right and who guessed (predicted) wrong and ask how the people got it 
right and what was missed or misunderstood by those who predicted 
incorrectly.

Make the predictions in terms that are directly important to kayakers.
Wind is light, moderate, strong, dangerous. Wind direction in cardinal
points of the compass and related to direction of travel, i.e. head wind,
tail wind, beam wind, and forward or sternward quartering wind.
Temperature is rising, falling or steady.
Sea state (if needed) is seas (wind driven waves) and swell (long smooth 
deep ocean waves), give rough height, steepness and shape especially
as they relate to handling the kayak.

Many of the things are quite subjective and vary widely from paddler to
paddler.

The first goal is to get people to the point that they can tell a early as
possible that dangerous conditions are coming so they can seek shelter
as needed. Again this varies widely with the skill of each individual.

Most of the time I don't care if Nigel Foster can paddle in certain
conditions,
I really care if *I* can paddle in the conditions.

By making the predictions and getting feedback on an hour by hour basis
people get a lot of practice.

These excersizes also sharpen general observation skills as everything in
the local environment can influence the local weather, hills, cliffs,
open water, cold or warm patches of water or land, etc.

> That's the approach which might work.  You can't teach weather like you
> teach bracing or rolling.

One thing is common, repeated practice in varying conditions is needed to
develop the skills to a usefull level.

HINT

Keep a 'weather eye', that is look into the wind frequently. That is the 
direction that most of your short term weather is coming from.

michael
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