Re: [Paddlewise] Weather

Sisler, Clyde wrote:

(In response to Scott -- from SoCalifornia, who said):
> > But even among this select group, how many of you would actually
> > spend your hard earned cash on a class about weather for kayakers? Perhaps
> > some of you would. But I'm willing to bet it's not enough to justify the
> > expense ...[snip]

> I went to a couple of hour long sessions this summer at the Atlantic Coast
> Sea Kayak Symposium in Castine, Maine and came away with nothing useful.
> The sessions were given by a local meteorologist and he started with weather
> front formations, ciruclations, a lot of theory, etc.  While it was mildly
> interesting, it had nothing to do with my reason for attending.
> 
> I don't want to be a meteorologist, all I want to know is if I'm paddling
> into deep sh*t.  I want to be able to look at the sky and/or the water and
> have some indication of what kind of wind and weather lies ahead in the next
> couple of hours.
> 
> To be fair, there's only so much you can cram into a classroom session and
> they always want to start with the basics.
> 
> I have high hopes for the Instant Weather (and wind) Forecasting books
> suggested earlier on the list and will be ordering them after the holidays.
> Something simple I can benefit from with a minimum amount of effort.  'An
> Idiot's Guide To Weather Forecasting' :-).

And there is the crux of the matter.  The trouble with what we all want --
that Idiot's Guide -- is that even the people with the best information and
the best understanding of weather sometimes have a devil of a time getting
the forecast right.  Not a knock on NOAA or any other weather service --
the weather is just not highly predictable, particularly on the west coast
of North America, where all the weather (pretty much) comes from a place
where the weather folks have the least information -- the ocean.

This has been an interesting thread -- I've learned a lot and picked up
some weather titles to titilate my gray matter.  But, I suspect we are
never going to do much better than to follow Neverdosky's advice to pay
attention to it and keep trying to test our predictions.

As Scott points out, most of us just wanna go paddle and are not patient
enough to put in the time (and effort).  And then guys like Clyde, who DO
put in some time and effort, get frustrated because a seminar on weather
does not seem to focus on what he wants.

To maybe give a stroke in a fruitful direction for Clyde:  keep that
circulation model the meteorologist taught you in your brain and when you
listen to the weather radio, try to visualize WHERE the low pressure system
is, and translate your mental image into a cloud/wind pattern around the
low.  Then put your location into the picture.  As the low moves on
through, note the wind shifts (magnitude and direction) to figure out where
the low has moved to, and re-visualize it.  Keep on doing that and you'll
get most of it.  For me, just learning the pattern of wind shifts which
signals approach and passage of a cold front helped a hell of a lot.  I'm
afraid some of weather science may have kinship with witchcraft!  <G>

-- 
Dave Kruger
Astoria, OR
usually at least half-wrong about the weather


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