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From: Aaron Hunt <abhunt_at_earthlink.net>
subject: [Paddlewise] Weather
Date: Sat, 12 Dec 1998 14:36:29 -0500
I would like to second this.  As a former Marine with eight years in Intelligence the weather was always the number one thing on everyone's mind.  Whether talking to a bunch of grunts in the field or the commander of an entire regiment, the weather was the first thing that we briefed.  In the Corps the weather geeks are part of intelligence, this is because no commander will make any decision unless they know how the weather is going to effect them.  If we dumb Marines can figure this out it shouldn't be all that hard for paddlers.

I do not see weather and weather forecasting on that list. I have just completed a re-read of "Deep Trouble" and kept tally of the root causes of the accidents. In all but four instances the root cause of the incident resulted from deteriorating weather or the failure to recognise its severity.
I have assumed that the list provided by Ray reflects those topics that the ACA considers important or at least important enough to treat as major topics of instruction. I may be chastising the ACA unfairly so maybe Ray can bring us up-to-date on the amount of the proposed course devoted to weather and weather forecasting as well as staying out of trouble.
As I mentioned some time back, few kayaking courses cover weather awareness in much detail (based on my own experience and my survey on the topic) . No doubt there will be some content in the ACA course on weather but the list Ray gave us suggests its importance (not much) to the course. No doubt accident prevention lacks the glamour of rolling, expeditions, surf and traditional skills but it seems to me to that bland old keeping out of trouble should be a major topic.
I have also checked the BCU handbook and out of roughly 500 pages only four are devoted to weather. In 6.5 pages of bibliography only one book listed is devoted to weather. Lest one think I am picking on the BCU, none of the other manuals I have read does any better and many do worse.
Sorry for the broken record. I get  bit testy at the almost never ending parade of posts over wet suits, rolls, rescue gear, rescue methods etc. but nary a word about not getting into those situations where such gear might be required.
ETC.
Cheers,
John Winters


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From: Steve Cramer <cramer_at_coe.uga.edu>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Weather
Date: Sat, 12 Dec 1998 15:56:31 -0500 (EST)
On Sat, 12 Dec 1998, Aaron Hunt wrote:

> I have assumed that the list provided by Ray reflects those topics that
> the ACA considers important or at least important enough to treat as
> major topics of instruction. I may be chastising the ACA unfairly so
> maybe Ray can bring us up-to-date on the amount of the proposed course
> devoted to weather and weather forecasting as well as staying out of
> trouble. 

The infamous "list of five" is a list of 1 to 2 day courses, not topics
for instruction. The standard ACA coastal kayak includes instruction on
weather, wind, waves, etc. The syllabus is under revision as we speak
(type?) so I don't know the amount of time allotted to the topic.

There seems to be support here for the establishment of an 8 hour weather
forecasting course. That would make six.

Steve Cramer                     
Test Scoring & Reporting Services      Sometimes you never can 
University of Georgia                    always tell what you 
Athens, GA 30602-5593                      least expect the most.


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From: Dave Kruger <dkruger_at_pacifier.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Weather
Date: Sat, 12 Dec 1998 15:55:23 -0800
Aaron Hunt wrote:
> 
> I would like to second this. [Including more weather content in ACA/BCU 
> training.]  As a former Marine with eight years in Intelligence the 
> weather was always the number one thing on everyone's mind.  Whether 
> talking to a bunch of grunts in the field or the commander of an entire 
> regiment, the weather was the first thing that we briefed.  [snip]

> As I mentioned some time back, few kayaking courses cover weather 
> awareness in much detail (based on my own experience and my survey on 
> the topic) . 

> No doubt there will be some content in the ACA course on weather but the
> list Ray gave us suggests its importance (not much) to the course. No
> doubt accident prevention lacks the glamour of rolling, expeditions,
> surf and traditional skills but it seems to me to that bland old keeping
> out of trouble should be a major topic. [snip]

Learning how to stay out of bad weather isn't sexy, and does not make for
attractive videos.  That said, I would not lean on ACA or BCU too hard.  I
suspect words to the wise and some practical instruction on procedures for
accessing local forecasts would give seminar participants at least a "nuts
and bolts" knowledge -- enough to get 'em thinking about weather and how to
anticipate the envelope of possibilities the forecast suggests.  And, it
might be unreasonable to expect much more out of intensive ACA/BCU
seminars.

What I'm suggesting is that an understanding of weather patterns and
developing the ability to "anticipate" possible changes in the weather is a
slowly-acquired skill.  This is the kind of stuff that demands a learning
cycle approach:  learn a little theory, go out and test it in the field, go
back and learn a little more theory, back to the field (etc.).  Lectures on
weather are relatively ineffective in building field-worthy, useful weather
competency.

Maybe ACA/BCU should offer "weather seminars" as an adjunct to their more
physical skills trainings -- the kind of thing a person could take several
times until he/she gets it.

Anecdotal support for this:  as a grad student, I was the notetaker for
Frank Badgley (sp?), the lecturer for an introductory atmospheric sciences
course at the U Washington (late '60's).  This thing was devoted mainly to
non-science types.  Frank introduced EVERY session with a 5-minute review
of the most recent weather map and a short discussion of what the fronts
and jet stream were doing.  Slowly (if they paid attention), his students
acquired a sound understanding of basic weather principles, and probably
retained it much better than if they had just read a book, or listened to a
formal lecture on the subject.

That's the approach which might work.  You can't teach weather like you
teach bracing or rolling.

-- 
Dave Kruger
Astoria, OR
long-time teacher
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From: Michael Neverdosky <MichaelN_at_cycat.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Weather
Date: Sun, 13 Dec 1998 11:49:11 +0000
dkruger_at_pacifier.com wrote:

> What I'm suggesting is that an understanding of weather patterns and
> developing the ability to "anticipate" possible changes in the weather is a
> slowly-acquired skill.  This is the kind of stuff that demands a learning
> cycle approach:  learn a little theory, go out and test it in the field, go
> back and learn a little more theory, back to the field (etc.).  Lectures on
> weather are relatively ineffective in building field-worthy, useful weather
> competency.

You can do this yourself or in groups.
Every time you go outside, look around and try to understand what the
weather is right now. Next, guess what the weather will be in one hour.
Check and see if you were right. If you were right, try to explain why
you were right. If you were wrong, try to understand what clues you 
might have overlooked.

In a class, the instructor can ask the students to predict what the 
weather will be in an hour or two and why they make the prediction 
they do. Each student will see (and feel) different things and everyone
will have something to add. At the appointed time check and see who is
right and who guessed (predicted) wrong and ask how the people got it 
right and what was missed or misunderstood by those who predicted 
incorrectly.

Make the predictions in terms that are directly important to kayakers.
Wind is light, moderate, strong, dangerous. Wind direction in cardinal
points of the compass and related to direction of travel, i.e. head wind,
tail wind, beam wind, and forward or sternward quartering wind.
Temperature is rising, falling or steady.
Sea state (if needed) is seas (wind driven waves) and swell (long smooth 
deep ocean waves), give rough height, steepness and shape especially
as they relate to handling the kayak.

Many of the things are quite subjective and vary widely from paddler to
paddler.

The first goal is to get people to the point that they can tell a early as
possible that dangerous conditions are coming so they can seek shelter
as needed. Again this varies widely with the skill of each individual.

Most of the time I don't care if Nigel Foster can paddle in certain
conditions,
I really care if *I* can paddle in the conditions.

By making the predictions and getting feedback on an hour by hour basis
people get a lot of practice.

These excersizes also sharpen general observation skills as everything in
the local environment can influence the local weather, hills, cliffs,
open water, cold or warm patches of water or land, etc.

> That's the approach which might work.  You can't teach weather like you
> teach bracing or rolling.

One thing is common, repeated practice in varying conditions is needed to
develop the skills to a usefull level.

HINT

Keep a 'weather eye', that is look into the wind frequently. That is the 
direction that most of your short term weather is coming from.

michael
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From: Michael Neverdosky <MichaelN_at_cycat.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Weather
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1998 10:26:50 +0000
An excellent book.
Another is, "Seamanship, the Forgotten Factor" by C.J. Marchaj.

These books are mainly for sailboats much larger than our kayaks
but most of the same principles apply directly and the others only
need slight modifictions to fit the kayak/paddler system.

michael

rcc7_at_ix.netcom.com wrote:

>         There is a very interesting and helpful book on the issue of weather
> from our sailing brethren. Please take a look at "Heavy Weather
> Sailing", 4th Edition by K. Adlard Coles, revised by Peter Bruce.
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From: Michael Neverdosky <MichaelN_at_cycat.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Weather
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1998 09:00:53 +0000
It is classes and lectures about weather that are boring. Actual direct
observation of the weather is a blast.

Is there anybody on this list who has never just gone out and watched 
the clouds?

I find reading about bracing and rolling to be very boring but actually
doing it (or failing in the attempt) is lots of fun. Bracing and rolling
require training of the body as well as the mind and so does weather.

With practice outside in the weather, you become attuned to weather clues
that you may not even be aware of. A slight change in the waves. A smell
that is different may signal a change in the wind direction or the amount
of vertical mixing. 
Little clues add up and suddenly a little voice in your head tells you
things are changing and how they are changing. Sometimes it seems
mistical but it can be explained as simple good observation of 
the conditions.

Like driving a car, knowing the weather can become an automatic,
subconscious
process. This does take time and practice.

When I am living on a boat and am outside all day, everyday, my weather
skills become truely amazing. When I live in a house on shore I am much
less
able to know the weather simply because I am insulated from most of the
clues.

There is no substitute for water under your butt and wind past your ears.

michael

bkossy_at_igc.apc.org wrote:
> 
> I've only been glancing at the weather discussion every so often, so I may
> have missed something, but I can't fathom how anyone could find weather
> boring.
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From: Michael Neverdosky <MichaelN_at_cycat.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Weather
Date: Wed, 16 Dec 1998 10:05:38 +0000
Great post.
I have only a few additions for thos venturing out of the 'normal'
areas.

735769_at_ican.net wrote:
> 
> Possibly the reason for people not being interested in weather instruction
> has to do with its complexity and the tendency of instructors to use
> unfamiliar terms and concepts. It may not be weather that is boring but
> instructors that are boring.

I find most instructors boring, in all fields, finding a good instructor
is like finding burried gold.

> Here is something from my web page on the topic that some might find
> useful.

> Present weather will turn worse if:
> 
> Cumulus clouds grow larger and towering
> Stratus clouds move in under cirrus clouds
> The barometer falls steadily. A rapid fall of 0.06 inches per hour or more
> indicates a rapid worsening and slow fall 0.50 or less a slow worsening

In polar regions the barometer is largely useless except as a bit of 
interesting data to record. 
I am not sure about the north (haven't sailed there yet) but below about
55 degrees south, the barometer either has no connection to what the
weather is doing, or tells you about the low after you are getting your
a** kicked.
At 70 deg S. the barometer is about as usefull as a brick on deck.
The brick will tell you if it is raining, snowing, freezing ice and
a few other interesting things just by checking the type of coating
on the brick.
If you place the barometer on deck it will tell you the same thing. :-))

> Sun becomes fuzzy looking and moon haloed or fuzzy
> Clouds thicken and wind increases
> Temperature unusually high or low for time of year
> Wind backing (shifting counterclockwise I.e. from SW to S to E)

In the Northern Hemisphere. In the South it is still called backing
but the directions are opposite.
Think of backing as the approach of a low with counterclockwise winds
in the NH and clockwise winds in the SH.

> Line of heavy dark clouds from the west

True for people in the areas of the earth with westerlies.
If you are in the tradewinds worry more about heavy dark clouds
in the east.

> No one sign constitutes an absolute indication of bad weather but two or
> more will. If you  always error on the safe side, your paddling will be
> safe and fun.

Very true, always use information from as many different sources and types
as you can.
It is not necessary to be obsessive just observant.

> I learned these weather signs (in a more folksy way) from the watermen of
> the Chesapeake Bay long before the days of satellites and weather radio.

And these signs are excellent for the Chesapeake. 
My point is only to help extend them to people in other areas.

> I suppose I lack tolerance for paddlers who seek the quick fix or want some

Hey!
I like the quick fix!
All it takes it a lifetime of living at sea, quick enough for me.

> to this day all the whales and icebergs in the world can't hold candle to
> the power and beauty of a storm at sea.

I find then all to be parts of the whole, wonderfull, big picture of life.

Give me a ship (big or small) and water to float her and I am a happy man.

michael

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