Re: [Paddlewise] Paddle floats

Lets say as a novice padder with a paddling skill factor of 1, I paddle in
conditions A with a risk factor of 1. Now I get a paddle float so my skills
factor increases to 2 and I start paddling in conditions B with a risk
factor of 2. Next I learn to roll, raising my skill factor to 3, and now I
venture out in conditions C with a risk factor of 3.

If, as a novice, I paddle 100% of the time in condition A when I have a
skill factor of 1 my overall risk could be expressed:
Overall Risk = (Risk Factor * Time Factor) / Skill Factor

(1 * 1.00)/1 = 1

If I learn to roll and spend all my time in the worst conditions I can
safely handle :
(3 * 1.00)/3 = 1

So the risk remains the same.

But people do not spend all their time in the worst conditions they can
safely handle. They probably spend at least half the time in pretty benign
conditions.

     A             B              C
(1 * 0.5)/3 + (2 * 0.25)/3 + (3 * 0.25)/3 = .58

So the overall risk is decreased by increasing your skill factor. You can
even afford to go into conditions beyond you skill and still be safer than
the novice.

How's that for some pseudoscientific mumbo-jumbo? Disclaimer: The risk and
skill level values are just given as examples. They are not meant to
correspond to any physical reality. :-)

Nick


>>I agree, in rough conditions, the paddle float is questionable.  The
>>reality is that only a small percentage of the paddlers I see on the water
>>engage the sea in conditions where a paddle float will not work.  The
>float
>>is a good choice for them.  It does not "... entice them into conditions
>>where it won't work," (paraphrasing) because most of them are
>**terrified**
>>of rough water and won't paddle in it.  They stay on the beach, or get the
>>hell off the water when it gets rough.
>
>I have a  bit of trouble with this. How can a safety device that purports
>to make paddling safer not entice people to take additional risks?  In my
>survey of paddlers many said that the presence of a safety device would not
>entice them to increase their risk but then only a couple of questions
>later would tell how they would never take a particular risk without a
>particular safety device. Sounds a bit contradictory to me.
>
>The purveyors of most safety equipment advertise how much safer using their
>wares will make us. If they don't make us safer, why do people insist on
>using them in conditions where they would not paddle without them?
>
>Why do you learn to roll? Because you will be able to get right side up
>after a capsize. Why do you capsize? Because you might get caught in
>conditions you can't handle. Why did you get caught in conditions you can't
>handle? Duhhhhhhhh
>
>Sounds like a circular and illogical argument to me.
>
>"I use all this gear and learn all these skills so I can paddle in
>conditions where I might have to use them but no, I would never take any
>additional risks just because I had a piece of gear or a skill."
>
>Meanwhile back at the beach the wimps won't go out because they fear the
>rough water which explains why they have their paddle floats because you
>never can tell when you will trip over a bottle of Montepulciano Abruzzo
>and need to claw your way back to the surface. ;-)



Nick Schade
Guillemot Kayaks
10 Ash Swamp Rd
Glastonbury, CT 06033
(860) 659-8847

Schade_at_guillemot-kayaks.com
http://www.guillemot-kayaks.com/

>>>>"It's not just Art, It's a Craft!"<<<<


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