Re: [Paddlewise] Paddle floats

Dan wrote;


>> Do you ever paddle in conditions where you would not paddle unless you
had
>> a rescue skill or rescue gear?
>>
>> Would you refuse to paddle in higher risk conditions if you did not have
>> the gear?
>
>Yes to all of the above. This is entirely rational (so long as I don't
>misinterpret the risk).

That, I believe constitutes the meat of my argument. I suspect Dan would
never, ever ("Well hardly ever") misinterpret the risk. Others, without his
expertise and skill and experience do. Matt's book has lots of examples.
One might even say that most accidents (but without authority) result from
misinterpreting risk. In Dan's case, where he has a wealth of experience
and knowledge to support his decision, the added risk fits his paddling
profile.The mistake here involves assuming that Dan represents any but the
most experienced level of paddler.

Dan's response to the questions seems perfectly acceptable but imagine a
less experienced paddler providing the same answers. Then we might pass
along to imagine Dan actually making a mistake and then reassess his
answers. The Extrasport advertisement that I have included in my web site
provides good examples of people who errored in assessing the danger and
their abilities.

>The purpose is *not* to allow one to be able to
>paddle in difficult conditions as safely as one could paddle in the
>pool. Of course there is an increase in risk in paddling in difficult
>conditions, even with the skills and equipment. But the goal is to
>optimize risk, not to minimize risk.

(SNIP)

I cannot recall saying or implying this. Perhpas I failed to make myself
clear. My point had to do with unrealistic assumptions of safety. Dan hits
the nail on the head. I believe I made this point (optimizing risk) some
time back and supported it with Gerald Wilde's (and others) research. My
comments apply to those who assume greater safety than reality provides. I
suspect most of the better paddlers here have paddled with people who fit
the profile. I know Richard Culpeper has pulled a lot of them out of the
water.

(SNIP)

>But the fact that some paddlers choose to take
>on greater risks because of their skills and equipment is not by itself
>evidence of a problem. Not all risk is irrational.

Absolutely, Some time back I made the point that human nature favored risk.
At no time have I implied that all risk was irrational.  However, when a
paddler chooses to take on more risk (non-optimization) than he should it
does indicate a problem. Dr. Wilde provides more than a few examples of how
people fail to optimize their risk. Most often the non-optimization stems
from inflated impressions of safety whether from careless instruction or
inflated claims of safety.

My concerns have nothing to do with those who do everything correctly but
with those who mislead themselves or get misled.

Nick wrote;

>But people do not spend all their time in the worst conditions they can
>safely handle. They probably spend at least half the time in pretty benign
>conditions.

But what happens during the other half? All that time spent in benign
conditions may lure people into that false sense of security that
eventually gets them into trouble especially when things start out benign
and turn nasty. Matt's book has plenty of examples of that.

Cheers,
John Winters
Redwing Designs
Specialists in Human Powered Watercraft
http://home.ican.net/~735769/




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