[Paddlewise] Risk Assessment (was When In Rome...)

This is a note written last year during a discussion on risk assessment
which is what this discussion on "When in Rome..." has evolved into.  In
this instance it was in response to the idea that wearing a PFD could
actually cause people to capsize, ie depending on a piece of equipment
or knowledge of a technique (knowing how to self rescue but never having
done it in real conditions) might make someone more apt to get into
trouble by causing them to venture beyond where they might be safe.  It
could easily be extapolated to include other things as well:

I'm not certain that the relationship to wearing a PFD and capsizing is
all that clear.  I do feel, though, there is a danger in "percieved
safety".  There is a tendency to put ourselves into situations where we
feel we are safe because of our skills or equipment.  A beginner kayaker
who is not wearing a PFD and is making a one mile crossing on a flat,
calm day may be in no more danger than an advanced kayaker making a ten
mile crossing in five-foot seas.  The fact of the matter is that they
are both taking a risk, and it may be that the advanced paddler is just
as ignorant of the danger as the beginner.  Equipment and skills can
engender a false sense of safety just as ignorance can.
In an ideal world we would work constantly on our skills and know how to
use our safely equipment and then paddle conservatively so that our
margin of safety is always as wide as possible.  I have a fairly
aggressive paddling style in that I tend to push the edge a bit.  The
result is that I do fall over from time to time.  What I have to guard
against is that I not get myself too far out there.  The advantage
though, is that I can paddle SK Class I,II and III and be very safe, and
even if things turn bad I am still within my comfort level.  If you
never fall over and you never have to self or assist rescue in real
conditions then you may be paddling much closer to your safety limit and
just not know it.  The trick to safe paddling is knowing your limits and
then staying within them.  This may or may not mean then that a PFD (or
wet/dry suit etc.) is appropriate.

John Winskill
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