Original message: >>Please tell us about your experiences with the Canadian weather forecasts. >>Many of us have had the feeling they exaggerate wind speed forecasts >>intentionally. >>Matt Broze Matt and fellow POW's (Prisoners of Weather), [LONG POST WARNING] I took the liberty to phone Environment Canada on Friday. They charge 2 bucks a minute for personal service. (Call came to $10.00. Now, divided by, say, 500 paddlewisers, equals...2 cents: so, I hope you all get your two cents worth!) I said I was calling on behalf of an internet listserver group dedicated to paddling knowledge and safety, and would like to talk to someone senior regarding forecast policy and their derivation of forecasted wind speeds. Disscussion, for those interested, was as follows (to my best recollection): Q. Does the Pacific Weather Center, through some directive from either Atmospheric Environment Services or Environment Canada (EC) in general, have an internal, tacit policy with respect to public marine forecasts whereby the highest "possible" wind speeds are broadcast in order to avoid liability? A. Well, uh, no. No we don't. Q. I guess you would have to say that, even if you did have this policy in effect. I know, because I work for the Government too. A. Not really. Individual forecasters, like myself, usually are wrong the other way. If mistakes are made, it is usually that winds are higher. Q. Are you senior there? A. Yes. I have been here 10 years. There are 5 regulars, and one other who often assists. We are responsible for the entire west coast. Q. The reason I'm phoning is because myself, numerous coastal users, kayak guides and everyone I know says EC always predicts stronger winds, on a consistent basis year after year, than what is actually experienced for the forecast region and period. As you are fairly senior forecaster, perhaps you could help me out here to understand the discrepancy. A. Well, up until a few years ago, we had a certain rate of staff turnover. Due to variables with the jet stream, topography impingement, etc, there is a real learning curve getting to the point whereby accurate forecasting is consistent. The last couple of years, we have a lot more staff stability, so you don't get new people making the same mistakes over and over again as each successive employee reinvents the wheel, as it were. Q. But, pardon me for saying, I think its getting worse, not better. Perhaps you don't understand what its like to be sitting on a beach in your little pup tent, living by every little word and detail that comes over the radio, especially if you are a guide or responsible for other people. Don't you have more accurate computer models these days, and a greater networking or pooling of resources, to help folks like us who are so dependent being so prone to the wind and the seas it produces? A. We have many user groups to consider, and we try our best to please everyone with the resources we have at our disposal. Our models bring up, usually, good broad-brush information, but when you superimpose what is generated over the vast area we deal with, there are many holes, shadows, whatever you want to call it, where details just are not available to input into the forecast. Perhaps you can give me some examples of problems you and your friends are encountering...I'm more than willing to help. Q. I phoned in April after a rather unfortunate occurence in Queen Charlotte Sound. Three of us were coming down from Bella Bella, via Fitz Hugh Sound. I asked previously why 9 out of 10 days you had it wrong, all wrong, including wind speed, direction, precipitation. The last guy said the predictions matched what eventually transpired. He would not say much else, other than the 6 of you took pride in your work. A. Did you give specifics? Do you have something more common place. Fits Hugh Sound has too many variances, and I didn't take the call. Q. Okay, when we are out on the West Coast in summer, with a strong NW regime, EC will call for gale force winds in the afternoon to 40 knots. So, we sit it out, expecting the worst, and it only hits 30, if that. A. We forecast out to 60 nautical miles offshore. Where we can, we include information from coastal reporting stations as it happens, along with the usual observations. If we say 40 knots, it will be 40 knots offshore...though with me, "I'll have usually forecasted 35 (forecaster laughs into phone). This would explain your situation in Fits Hugh Sound. Q. I kind of thought maybe that was the problems so many of us are experiencing, but what about places like Estavan Point or Brooks Peninsula. You often give very specific forecasts for these points, with detailed forecasts that turn out to be wrong. These are very dangerous points of land for small craft. A. Like I said, I'm very senior here, and I still can't get it totally right. The more stable the air mass, the better I do, and actually the stronger the wind, the easier it is as the entire coast tends to experience similar wind speed and direction. Its when the wind backs off a bit that the picture falls apart. Also, a SE flow is much easier to predict consequences for than a NW flow. Let me just bring up something on my screen here (forecaster takes a minute -- with my money -- while he interprets the info). Okay, the forecast for the East Morsby (Queen Charlotte Islands) is NW 15 to 20 knots. Its blowing just over 15 knots, but, at Cumshewa (a headland of sorts) it is blowing SW 10 knots. So you can see the difficulties. How much can we get into a broadcast is another question. Our user groups want forecasts for places like Solander off Brooks, so we do our best -- given that similar situations exist there as with Cumshewa, it makes it difficult. Q. I thank you for the information. I should really go now. A. (Forecaster continues almost unbroken from previous sentence). Yeah, we often get calls, even from land based citizen observations, telling us we have it all wrong. Places like Holberg Inlet get winds that are sudden and severe, and the coastal and inlet inhabitants get mighty upset. Q. Yes I've experienced those confined waterway winds. Quatsino Sound (a large inlet mouth on the northwest coast of Vancouver Island) is another bad one. Especially in the morning. Just as the sun is rising, outflow winds can build to 25 knots -- just as you are in the middle of your "calm morning crossing". As the sun proceeds to rise, winds will abruptly turn and inflow winds will start to develop. A. We often try to include outflow winds where we can in the forecast. Places like Howe Sound (inside waters, north of Vancouver) are given particular attention because of the high number of pleasure boaters frequenting the area, for example. Q. I see EC has a new book out, "The Wind Came All Ways" and a revised edition of the Marine Weather Manual. A. Both the Strait of Georgia and Juan de Fuca strait are particularly difficult areas in general, to forecast, let alone small localities within those two areas. We hope the new book will help educate boaters about local effects. Was there another question? Q. Here's a specific. Last Monday you called for Westerlies to 20 knots late afternoon. By dinner time, it was at least 35 to 40. Finally, the Coast Guard broadcast right over the EC recording to say it was a full gale. This is the opposite problem from why I originally called, but is does illustrate why some days I feel like chucking the radio. A. Hhmmm. This is a problem. Juan de Fuca can be a bugger. Part of the problem however is that in this case, I saw the trend coming, but the forecast at four pm was for the immediate. The winds did pick up suddenly just prior to the revised forecast, so there are times when what is happening is not what you heard on the forecast. I thanked the forecaster and told him I appreciated their continued commitment to the boating public. I had wanted to push more on the above Race Rocks - Juan de Fuca fowl-up, but I was phoning from work and was getting the evil-eye from my boss, so said goodbye. I do know that the American forecasts I listen to are often much more accurate if you follow up 4 hours later and listen to the observations -- they usually align with the earlier predictions. Often, I use the American broadcast to predict what will happen in my local, if the flow is our way. American reports, I also notice, give details regarding rogue wave heights, etc. A very detailed bunch of guys you got down there. I got a note from a fellow PW'er who just came back from a one or two week trip in the Blackfish Sound area of NE Vancouver Island -- what a nightmare of misinformation he got from EC off the radio. So, the beef goes on. Bottom line, keep a sharp weather eye out on the water. Sorry for long post, but as we are all analy retentive... BC'in Ya Doug lloyd *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Doug Lloyd wrote: > Matt and fellow POW's (Prisoners of Weather), > > I took the liberty to phone Environment Canada on Friday. [big snip] > > and would like to talk to someone senior regarding forecast policy and > their derivation of forecasted wind speeds. Disscussion, for those > interested, was as follows [mongo snip] > I thanked the forecaster and told him I appreciated their continued > commitment to the boating public. [snip] I do know that the > American forecasts I listen to are often much more accurate if you follow > up 4 hours later and listen to the observations -- they usually align with > the earlier predictions. [snip] > Bottom line, keep a sharp weather eye out on the water. Sorry for long > post, but as we are all anally retentive... Thanks for pursuing this, Doug. I would not have had the patience and stick-to-it-iveness. I suspect that it is tough for anybody, be it EC or NOAA/NWS, to get wind predictions as reliable as we would like. And, I agree EC has a tough forecast job on the BC coast, and in the Strait of Juan de Fuca area. Of necessity, I'm pretty self-reliant when it comes to wind/weather, on my "home" waters, though I have been nailed a few times, particularly in winter, by outflow winds. FWIW, the NWS misses its share down here, also -- and for similar reasons, I suspect -- not much actual data coming in from the west. Not as happy a situation as forecasting air mass behavior in the center of the continent, where there is a huge body of information from ground observations in all directions. -- Dave Kruger Astoria, OR *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Doug Lloyd wrote: --snip-- > > Perhaps you don't understand what its like to be sitting on a beach in your > little pup tent, living by every little word and detail that comes over the > radio, especially if you are a guide or responsible for other people. > ... some days I feel like chucking the radio. This raises interesting questions as to why one paddles, how much tech one might want to haul along, and to what degree one is willing to be dependent upon such tech. Cheers, Richard Culpeper culpeper_at_tbaytel.net www.tbaytel.net/culpeper *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
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