Re: [Paddlewise] Risk - was How and when

735769 (John Winters) wrote:

> This has to do with something called risk homeostasis. Basically the theory
> says that each person has a comfortable level of risk. If they perceive they
> have greater safety they increase their level of risk until they reach their
> comfort level (and vice versa). Thus, if paddlers (or motorcycle drivers)
> perceive that a device or skill makes them safer they will increase their
> levels of risk thus increasing their chance of an accident and, more often
> than not, will increase the probable severity of an accident..
> SNIPPED
> 
> This does not mean that safety devices etc. do not save lives. they do -  if
> you have an accident. Unfortunately they often also increase your chances of
> having an accident as one adjusts the comfort level to suit the increased
> perception of safety. One has to differentiate between reactive safety and
> active safety. Decorating yourself and boat with safety equipment and rescue
> skills and going out in scary conditions with a high risk of capsize or
> danger is reactive safety as it kicks in only after things go wrong. Looking
> at conditions and staying ashore to read a book is active safety because you
> have reduced the possibility of an accident.
> 
> Does this mean you should not use safety devices? No. It means that the
> device may offer no net increase in safety unless your level of risk remains
> constant. In short, to increase real safety you want to increase your level
> of safety but decrease your perception of safety. By all means, wear your
> wet suit (life jacket, etc.) but stay ashore if you think you might need to
> use it.
> 
> >From this one can see a hint at the problem with giving people "good
> advice". If they do not perceive an appropriate level of danger your advice
> falls on deaf ears. Often the perception of safety far exceeds real safety.


I am glad to see John joining in on this discussion with the points he
makes above.  It is a note he has sounded before, only this time it
seems clearer than earlier.

What I get out of this is to make certain to have x number(or quality)
of safety items(and direct knowledge of their use not just reading
knowledge) and paddling skills(good power stroke; bracing and/or
rolling) to deal with situations but allow yourself to only get into
situations that are x minus some factor (with that factor being quite
hefty).  I think it is wrong to match up specific gear/skills with
specific risks.  Give yourself a very wide margin of difference between
the two.  And perhaps look at the gear/skills to help in risky
situations that develop unexpectedly while out on the water rather than
setting off into such conditions.

This is all very abstract sounding.  Look at it as cutting yourself a
lot of slack.  This is different from say the attitude or mindset among
better whitewater paddlers who constantly strive to push the edges of
the envelop of their skills vs. the relative difficulty/risk
classification of the river.  I don't want to get into a prolonged
discussion of whitewater paddling but often the goal of the better
whitewater paddler is to move up in the class rating of whitewater he or
she paddles.  As the WW paddler skills increase and he or she moves up,
the margin for error gets slimmer and slimmer.  Miss that line on a
Class V or VI river or fail to enter that narrow eddy and your life is
in peril. That is why the tendency in whitewater fatalities seems to be
on the two ends of the skill level, i.e. absolute beginners (or rafters)
getting into harder stuff and dying or top paddlers pushing into tougher
and tougher conditions in which the line between safety and catastrophe
is as thin as a hair.  Not much happens in the middle, i.e. Class III
paddlers in Class III waters (except for strainers).

As a general rule, the deaths in seakayaking have tended to be mainly
among the relative novice or completely inexperienced people and the
result of ignorance and inattention.  Unless I am mistaken, I do not
recall any experienced, highly skilled sea kayaker dying (except one
surfing accident).  But all the deaths I do recall in sea kayaking
involved situations such as:

--A handyman working on opening up some summer place for a customer. He
spots a kayak under the house.  Decides to give it a try as the day is
bright and sunny. Never paddled before.  Goes on to 40-45 degree water
with no PFD, no skill, in heavy work clothing and boots.  Tips over and
dies within yards of land.  (I recall about 3 such incidents)

--Relatively unskilled paddlers on camping trips who run into nasty
weather near the end of the trip.  In order to be able to catch a flight
home (and not lose money on the ticket), they opt to go ahead and die on
the water rather than  stay in camp for another day or two. Victims of
the gotta-get-there syndrome (I recall quite a few of those).

--Experienced paddlers who did not pay attention to possible changes
developing in sea conditions.  The classic being what happened to
whatshername in Greenland last year when lurking behind a point of land
were very rough conditions and wind.  It almost happened to JFK Jr. and
his friends in their Scandanavian trip later written up by him for the
NY Times Travel Section.

--Situations where a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, almost
exclusively the domain of relative newcomers. Such is the case of the 2
or 3 who purchased a dry suit but failed to understand its proper use. 
Wound up, among other mistakes, leaving it open, not wearing insulation
underneath.  Tipped over and died.  Or the fellow who felt he should
tether himself to his kayak but perhaps fearing too long a tether made
it only 6 inches long and latched to a fairly taut deck line running the
length of the boat and thus making it impossible for him to get out of
the boat when it tipped.

ralph diaz     
-- 
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Ralph Diaz . . . Folding Kayaker newsletter
PO Box 0754, New York, NY 10024
Tel: 212-724-5069; E-mail: rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com
"Where's your sea kayak?"----"It's in the bag."
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