Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis

Chuck and James wrote;

(SOME SNIPS)

> > I might also add that not dressing for emersion in the winter also keeps
> > me screamingly in tune to the conditions.
> >
> > James
>
> Sounds like a great plan.   Are you recommending this for everyone?
>
> Tell us about your rolling skills.
>
> Is part of your plan to never capsize in cold water?
>
> Chuck Sutherland

Now that we have snow on the ground and ice on the creek I hope you will
forgive me for lapsing into a reminiscing mode prompted by this post.

Back when I first started paddling white water I did most of my whitewater
paddling during the spring run-off while snow still covered the ground and
ice lined the banks a this was the only time our local rivers had enough
water for paddling. In those days few people had wet suits and we wore wool.
Sort of like old time river drivers. (Richard Culpeper paddled the same
general area and he can correct my recollections where ever he feels he
should).

It seems to me that we had fewer capsizes in those days. In fact, I had my
first cold water whitewater capsize AFTER I bought my dry suit. We certainly
had fewer beginners paddling early in the season and used to list those
trips as expert trips. Now I think we list them as intermediate trips.

Of course, we could not roll our canoes (frequently tandem Grummans) so a
capsize had pretty severe consequences. I believe the knowledge of the
consequences led to far greater caution than that used by paddlers today who
have vastly superior cold weather clothing. Some would argue we had better
skills but I think we just had a different, more cautious approach.

Those who have paddled canoes in the open ocean in the far north also seem
to exercise considerable caution.  We never do plan to capsize in cold water
or even plan around it. I have always felt that this type of behavior
supported the theory of risk homeostasis. We recognized the dangers and
adjusted our risk level to suit. I short, we didn't paddle if we perceived a
risk of capsize. many times I can recall walking around a rapid that I had
run just because the water level had changed and I wasn't sure of the proper
line.

I believe you can see risk homeostasis at work every time you paddle
whitewater in the wilderness where loss of your boat and equipment, not to
mention injury, tempers one's judgment. White water one would normally run
closer to home gets walked around or lined down where the consequences
become more serious.

If we exclude the people who paddle for thrills or just to see how far they
can stretch their abilities then:

I certainly would not recommend that everyone stop wearing their cold
weather gear but I certainly would recommend that they paddle as if they
didn't.

I certainly would not recommend that people not learn to roll but I
certainly would recommend that the paddle like they couldn't.

I certainly would recommend that people plan not to capsize in cold water by
avoiding conditions that increase that probability.

To provide some idea of how I approach this kind of thing visit my
non-commercial web page
http://home.ican.net/~735769/safety.htm  that provides a way of estimating
the danger of a given paddling situation. I hope you find it helpful. I also
would appreciate your comments.

If you don't want to bother with the web page, here is a snippet from it.

"The safe paddler is a pessimist.  He knows that no safety equipment is
perfect. He only believes the worst in a weather report and then tempers it
with his own knowledge of local conditions. Most of all, he recognizes that
his perception of safety must be pessimistic to avoid exceeding his skills.
This may be the most frequent and fatal mistake of all - the overestimation
of ones safety based upon the assumption that safety gear or skills improve
safety.  Safety gear and rescues do improve your chances after you have done
something wrong but you are never safer than if you hadn't made the mistake
in the first place. As Derek Hutchinson so aptly said, "Knowing how to roll
is a sign of success, having to roll is a sign of failure." Safe paddling
means not having to use your rescue devices or skills."

Cheers,

John Winters
Redwing Designs
Web site address, http://home.ican.net/~735769

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