Kaos Term: >>Injection of kaos into the computation might make it >> more likely to include the uncertainty that we often encounter. > >risk value for kaos = standard deviation of all other *relevant* risk values. >>hence kaos risk increases when the relevant riks values are divergent... > >Uncertain World Rating = John's Rating + Kaos risk value. >>No change to the Rating Tables. ======== Snipped from John's reply: >Great idea if I can figure out how to do it using my rotten math skills. >Does anyone out there remember the classic chaos type of formula? >Is it n = n ^(1-n) or is it x --> x2 + c? Maybe neither one. ============= John, my math can be weak too, but sometimes words work. insight into how chaos enters into *predicting* sea kayaking risk at some *future* time from *present* conditions can be obtained by reading http://order.ph.utexas.edu/chaos/index.html i've gotten side tracked on chaotic music, http://www.industrialstreet.com/chaos/Music.asp so i haven't gotten to mathimatical formulation of chaos for sea kayaking. maybe there's a math enriched paddler who know kaos already... any help out there? by the way, one of Prof Willard Pierson's (NYU) claims to fame was introducing statistical methods into wave analaysis... as in wave spectra. Maybe it's time for some sea kayakers to accept kaos as a way of envisioning how some kayaking events unfold... bye bye bliven *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************Received on Wed Nov 10 1999 - 18:21:12 PST
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.4.0 : Thu Aug 21 2025 - 16:30:16 PDT