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From: ralph diaz <rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com>
subject: [Paddlewise] One bright thing pre Y2K
Date: Thu, 09 Dec 1999 13:20:26 -0800
I got this from a friend at UC/Davis who wrote:

START QUOTED STUFF----------------------
This comes from a fairly reliable source on campus. I'm not sure that
this
full moon will be so much brighter than other December full moons near
perigee, but still, it sounds like a record-setter and a remarkable
sight.

This year will be the first full moon to occur on the winter solstice,
Dec
22, commonly called the first day of winter.  Since a full moon on the
winter solstice occurred in conjunction with a lunar perigee (point in
the
moon's orbit that is closest to Earth)  The moon will appear about  14%
larger than it does at apogee (the point in its elliptical orbit that 
is
farthest from the Earth)  since the Earth is also several million miles
closer to the sun at this time of the year than in the summer, sunlight
striking the moon is about 7% stronger making it brighter.  Also, this
will
be the  closest perigee of the Moon of the year. On December 21st. 1866
the
Lakota Sioux took advantage of this combination of occurrences and
staged a
devastating retaliatory ambush on soldiers in the Wyoming Territory.  

In laymen's terms it will be a super bright full moon, much more than
the
usual AND it hasn't happened this way for 133 years!  

Our ancestors 133 years ago saw this.  Our descendants 100 or so years
from
now will see this again. I hope someone else might find this
interesting!
Remember this will happen December 22, 1999.
---------------------END QUOTED STUFF  

Sounds like a great night for an evening paddle; the waters will have a
special silvery luster and shimmer to them.  FYI: In the NYC area the
moon will rise at around 5pm on Dec 22nd and set at 6am the next
morning.  Perfect!!!!

ralph
-- 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ralph Diaz . . . Folding Kayaker newsletter
PO Box 0754, New York, NY 10024
Tel: 212-724-5069; E-mail: rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com
"Where's your sea kayak?"----"It's in the bag."
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From: Jerry Hawkins <jhawkins_at_cisco.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] One bright thing pre Y2K
Date: Thu, 09 Dec 1999 11:55:25 -0800
This combination also makes for some stupendous tides and currents.  At the Golden Gate Bridge, December 21 shows an excellent high of 7.10 feet at 9:38 AM.  I don't have the whole table here but I seem to recall that nearly the lowest low of the whole year follows directly ... a good day to be swept where you want to go, or out to sea like the canoeists in the Everglades.

I am taking Dec. 21 off to go paddling if the weather cooperates.

jerry.


At 01:20 PM 12/09/1999 -0800, ralph diaz wrote:
>I got this from a friend at UC/Davis who wrote:
>
>START QUOTED STUFF----------------------
>This comes from a fairly reliable source on campus. I'm not sure that
>this
>full moon will be so much brighter than other December full moons near
>perigee, but still, it sounds like a record-setter and a remarkable
>sight.
>
>This year will be the first full moon to occur on the winter solstice,
>Dec
>22, commonly called the first day of winter.  Since a full moon on the
>winter solstice occurred in conjunction with a lunar perigee (point in
>the
>moon's orbit that is closest to Earth)  The moon will appear about  14%
>larger than it does at apogee (the point in its elliptical orbit that 
>is
>farthest from the Earth)  since the Earth is also several million miles
>closer to the sun at this time of the year than in the summer, sunlight
>striking the moon is about 7% stronger making it brighter.  Also, this
>will
>be the  closest perigee of the Moon of the year. On December 21st. 1866
>the
>Lakota Sioux took advantage of this combination of occurrences and
>staged a
>devastating retaliatory ambush on soldiers in the Wyoming Territory.  
>
>In laymen's terms it will be a super bright full moon, much more than
>the
>usual AND it hasn't happened this way for 133 years!  
>
>Our ancestors 133 years ago saw this.  Our descendants 100 or so years
>from
>now will see this again. I hope someone else might find this
>interesting!
>Remember this will happen December 22, 1999.
>---------------------END QUOTED STUFF  
>
>Sounds like a great night for an evening paddle; the waters will have a
>special silvery luster and shimmer to them.  FYI: In the NYC area the
>moon will rise at around 5pm on Dec 22nd and set at 6am the next
>morning.  Perfect!!!!
>
>ralph
>-- 
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------
>Ralph Diaz . . . Folding Kayaker newsletter
>PO Box 0754, New York, NY 10024
>Tel: 212-724-5069; E-mail: rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com
>"Where's your sea kayak?"----"It's in the bag."
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------
>***************************************************************************
>PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not
>to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission
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> 
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From: Gabriel L Romeu <romeug_at_erols.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] One bright thing pre Y2K
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 18:41:29 -0500
Birchall, Graeme (ETS) wrote:
> 
> Ralph;
> 
> Regarding the full moon on Dec/22:  As far as the brightness goes, the full
> moon will be about one half magnitude brighter than what it normally is,
> which is not distinguishable by the human eye.  Likewise, the perceived size
> difference will not be obvious when the moon is high in the sky.  When the
> moon is close the ground, other factors (in our brains) always make the moon
> seem larger than what it really is.
> 
> Graeme Birchall
> Email:  73540.1566_at_compuserve.com
> 

Very deflating Graeme, 

Think I will go out anyway and check out myself.  Maybe in my own mind I
will percieve it to be both brighter and larger.  Judging by how clear
it was a couple of nights ago- best since last year winter- it just may
be.  Or at least to me.  Thats just fine.

------------------------------------------------------------------

> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ralph diaz [mailto:rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com]
> Sent: Thursday, December 09, 1999 4:20 PM
> To: paddlewise; NYCKAYAKER
> Subject: One bright thing pre Y2K
> 
> I got this from a friend at UC/Davis who wrote:
> 
> START QUOTED STUFF----------------------
> This comes from a fairly reliable source on campus. I'm not sure that
> this
> full moon will be so much brighter than other December full moons near
> perigee, but still, it sounds like a record-setter and a remarkable
> sight.
> 
> This year will be the first full moon to occur on the winter solstice,
> Dec
> 22, commonly called the first day of winter.  Since a full moon on the
> winter solstice occurred in conjunction with a lunar perigee (point in
> the
> moon's orbit that is closest to Earth)  The moon will appear about  14%
> larger than it does at apogee (the point in its elliptical orbit that
> is
> farthest from the Earth)  since the Earth is also several million miles
> closer to the sun at this time of the year than in the summer, sunlight
> striking the moon is about 7% stronger making it brighter.  Also, this
> will
> be the  closest perigee of the Moon of the year. On December 21st. 1866
> the
> Lakota Sioux took advantage of this combination of occurrences and
> staged a
> devastating retaliatory ambush on soldiers in the Wyoming Territory.
> 
> In laymen's terms it will be a super bright full moon, much more than
> the
> usual AND it hasn't happened this way for 133 years!
> 
> Our ancestors 133 years ago saw this.  Our descendants 100 or so years
> from
> now will see this again. I hope someone else might find this
> interesting!
> Remember this will happen December 22, 1999.
> ---------------------END QUOTED STUFF
> 
> Sounds like a great night for an evening paddle; the waters will have a
> special silvery luster and shimmer to them.  FYI: In the NYC area the
> moon will rise at around 5pm on Dec 22nd and set at 6am the next
> morning.  Perfect!!!!
> 
> ralph
> --
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
> Ralph Diaz . . . Folding Kayaker newsletter
> PO Box 0754, New York, NY 10024
> Tel: 212-724-5069; E-mail: rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com
> "Where's your sea kayak?"----"It's in the bag."
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------


-- 
:                         :
Gabriel L Romeu                                                      :
http://studiofurniture.com  furniture from the workshop               :
http://members.xoom.com/gabrielR  life as a tourist, daily
journal         :
http://users.aol.com/romeugp  paintings, photographs, etchings, objects


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From: Bob Myers <bob_at_intelenet.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] One bright thing pre Y2K
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 17:41:27 -0800
Matt,

You don't understand tides in the least if you believe this.

Consider the question: why are there 2 lunar tidal bulges,
one on each side of the Earth?  If it's just simple matter of the 
Moon "pulling" on one side, why the bulge on the opposite side?
Tides are usually every 12 hours, not every 24. 

Tides *always* are stretching forces, even with only one
tidal body, or with two on the same side.  Elementary physics,
look it up.

And please take your spurious earthquake prediction speculations
to some place where it is on topic.  This is not the right
forum to discuss this, even if there was the slightest merit
to your uninformed suggestions.






On Dec 16, 16:35, "Matt Broze" wrote:
} Subject: Re: [Paddlewise] One bright thing pre Y2K
> Chuck Holst wrote:
> >In reply to Matt Broze, I doubt that the moon's gravitational attraction
> >will set a 133-year record, since the moon reaches perigee once a month,
> >though it is true that perigee is not usually aligned with the sun.
> >(There would be a bigger pull on the earth if perigee coincided with the
> >new moon.) The spring tide will probably be a little bigger than usual,
> >but again, I doubt it will be a once in a century tide.
> 
> I was working from info Ralph quoted (below) and I don't know its accuracy
> and this was the first I heard about this event. However, contrary to what
> Chuck said, it would seem to me that there would be more distortion of the
> earth itself during a full moon than a new moon because the sun and moon
> would be pulling from opposite directions in a sort of tug of war stretching
> it rather than acting together as during a new moon and just pulling it a
> little closer. Both ways will create big tides but I think the full moon is
> will deform the earth more, possibly setting off an earthquake that was
> nearly ready to let go anyway. In other words, the full moon just may be the
> last straw in the earthquake process.
> Like all predictions you will remember I said it if it even comes close to
> happening on the 22nd and (hopefully) will quickly forget I predicted it if
> nothing happens. So called "Psychics" get great mileage out of this quirk in
> human memory by making a lot of nebulous predictions and letting (or
> helping) us fill in the blanks with later reality of those few that could be
> even close.
> Matt Broze
> http://www.marinerkayaks.com
> 
> > I got this from a friend at UC/Davis who wrote:
> >
> > START QUOTED STUFF----------------------
> > This comes from a fairly reliable source on campus. I'm not sure that
> > this
> > full moon will be so much brighter than other December full moons near
> > perigee, but still, it sounds like a record-setter and a remarkable
> > sight.
> >
> > This year will be the first full moon to occur on the winter solstice,
> > Dec
> > 22, commonly called the first day of winter.  Since a full moon on the
> > winter solstice occurred in conjunction with a lunar perigee (point in
> > the
> > moon's orbit that is closest to Earth)  The moon will appear about  14%
> > larger than it does at apogee (the point in its elliptical orbit that
> > is
> > farthest from the Earth)  since the Earth is also several million miles
> > closer to the sun at this time of the year than in the summer, sunlight
> > striking the moon is about 7% stronger making it brighter.  Also, this
> > will
> > be the  closest perigee of the Moon of the year. On December 21st. 1866
> > the
> > Lakota Sioux took advantage of this combination of occurrences and
> > staged a
> > devastating retaliatory ambush on soldiers in the Wyoming Territory.
> >
> > In laymen's terms it will be a super bright full moon, much more than
> > the
> > usual AND it hasn't happened this way for 133 years!
> >
> > Our ancestors 133 years ago saw this.  Our descendants 100 or so years
> > from
> > now will see this again. I hope someone else might find this
> > interesting!
> > Remember this will happen December 22, 1999.
> > ---------------------END QUOTED STUFF
> >>Matt Broze wrote:
> >
> >> Sounds like a perfect day for a big earthquake. The earth hasn't been
> tugged
> >> at this hard for 133 years.
> 
> >Chuck Holst wrote:
> >Don't forget that 2000 will also be the year of the solar maximum, which
> >could affect phone service, satellites, and the power grid. So don't
> >throw out your old blubber lamp just yet. :-)
> 
> >In reply to Matt Broze, I doubt that the moon's gravitational attraction
> >will set a 133-year record, since the moon reaches perigee once a month,
> >though it is true that perigee is not usually aligned with the sun.
> >(There would be a bigger pull on the earth if perigee coincided with the
> >new moon.) The spring tide will probably be a little bigger than usual,
> >but again, I doubt it will be a once in a century tide.
> 
> >Chuck Holst
> 
> ------------------------------
> 
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>-- End of excerpt from "Matt Broze"


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From: Alex Ferguson <a.ferguson_at_chem.canterbury.ac.nz>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] One bright thing pre Y2K (tides)
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 09:30:00 +1300
At 05:41 pm Bob Myers 16/12/99 -0800, you wrote:

>Matt,
>
>You don't understand tides in the least if you believe this.
>
>Consider the question: why are there 2 lunar tidal bulges,
>one on each side of the Earth?  If it's just simple matter of the 
>Moon "pulling" on one side, why the bulge on the opposite side?
>Tides are usually every 12 hours, not every 24. 

Except the places where there is one tide every 24 hours. Personally I
think the "slosh" effect is the best term and/or way of visualising these
abberations. A shallow tray with the opposite ends being alternatively
lifted to get the water to slosh back and forth. Dependant on the natural
cyle, the "tuning" of the length of the tray versus the timing of the
gravitational tides as to whether and what happens. The diagrams in books
so often conveniently forget that there are continents, bays and islands
complicating the whole thing. Around our bit of coast, about 300 miles of
it there is only one spring tide a month and the tidal heights each day
make a very ragged graph. 

Nothing is quite that simple if you want to get down to definitive causes.
There are 3 major causes and a mass of minor ones if you want to calculate
actual times and heights.

NIWA have a good WEB site with movies of tides, I'll track it down if
anyone is interested.

>And please take your spurious earthquake prediction speculations
>to some place where it is on topic.  This is not the right
>forum to discuss this, even if there was the slightest merit
>to your uninformed suggestions.

Very good series on TV at the moment, "The Planets", you should see what
gravitational effects do to some of the moons around planets in the solar
system!!!

Alex
.
.
Alex (Sandy) Ferguson
Chemistry Department
University of Canterbury
New Zealand
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From: <Bhansen97_at_aol.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] One bright thing pre Y2K (tides)
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 08:54:52 EST
Maybe this has been mentioned in this string before: David Burch's book 
"Fundamentals of Kayak Navigation", pages 158-164, has a description of 
several different types of tides. - Bill Hansen
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From: Jackie Fenton <jackie_at_intelenet.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] One bright thing pre Y2K (tides)
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 12:56:06 -0800 (PST)
> From: Alex Ferguson <a.ferguson_at_chem.canterbury.ac.nz>

> At 05:41 pm Bob Myers 16/12/99 -0800, you wrote:

> >Consider the question: why are there 2 lunar tidal bulges,
> >one on each side of the Earth?  If it's just simple matter of the 
> >Moon "pulling" on one side, why the bulge on the opposite side?
> >Tides are usually every 12 hours, not every 24. 
> 
> Except the places where there is one tide every 24 hours. 

I think that's why Bob wrote "usually."

<snip>

> >And please take your spurious earthquake prediction speculations
> >to some place where it is on topic.  This is not the right
> >forum to discuss this, even if there was the slightest merit
> >to your uninformed suggestions.
> 
> Very good series on TV at the moment, "The Planets", you should see what
> gravitational effects do to some of the moons around planets in the solar
> system!!!

Bob's objection was the announcement of a catastrophic event predicted to
take place on or about a particular day without real knowledge or understanding of physics but using some general knowledge to promote that prediction which 
is not supported by scientists in the field.  Such predictions can and have 
cost societies in big ways.

A good site on this subject is: http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/peterb/y2k.htm
One example: the prediciton by astrologers of the rise of the Thames in 1524 
to such a height that it would wash away ten thousand houses, all due to 
a certain alignment of the planets.  This bad call caused quite a stir
and needless expense.

Cheers,

Jackie
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