As some may remember from my post last winter, I am tentatively planning a long west coast of Vancouver Island trip for next summer. I achieved some, but not all, of my preparative goals last summer, and feel that I am OK on most fronts if I can keep the tendonitis at bay. My main concern at the moment is the weather. The week I was in Kyuquot sound (end of May), was a little worse than we hoped, but one week is a pretty small sample. My previous experience with the island's west coast is limited to a couple of trips to Barkeley Sound. However, I tried to check the Environment Canada web site at least every couple of days for the rest of the summer for forecasts and wind reports, and it seemed that the frequency of marginal or worse conditions, particularly in Vancouver Island North, was quite a bit higher than I had been lead to believe (by Douglass _Exploring Vancouver Island's West Coast_, and maybe other sources that don't come to mind now). We had an unusually crappy summer in Seattle, so I am hoping to get first hand accounts from people closer to the area regarding whether this was an unusually bad year, or my previous scenario was unrealisticly rosy, or I am selectively remembering only the bad forecasts and windy days. (I'm pretty sure the last is not the case.) Any long-term local knowledge of the area's weather (May to September), the quality of forecasting (I recall that Doug Lloyd has some ideas on this) and the relavance of the reported stations to paddling routes, global climate change, sun spots and related subjects would be of great interest (at least to me!) Mike Wagenbach Missing some dry Colorado snow and cold blue skies, but only for 5 more days! P.S to Dennis: Let me know if my message made it to you. The problem with expert advice is that it so often conflicts with one's plans. -author unknown *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
At 06:53 PM 12/17/99 -0800, Mike wrote: >As some may remember from my post last winter, I am tentatively planning a >long west coast of Vancouver Island trip for next summer.<snip> >unusually bad year, or my previous scenario was unrealisticly rosy,<snip>> >Any long-term local knowledge of the area's weather (May to September)<snip> Mike, et al: The past two spring/summers have been marginal at best. Two years ago, it was significant wind and rain. This last summer, lots of rain and significant fog. Hopefully, we will not return to the El Nino episode of two years ago, and the La Nina regime should dissipate by Spring 2000 - returning us to more normal values this coming Summer. I live, love, like, lament, loathe, and occasionally lust over Vancouver Island's West Coast weather. Sometimes I even get lucky with it on longer trips, where you need some sunshine to dry things out. Mostly, I've learned to give the weather for both the North Coast and the South Coast regions, adequate valuation when making plans and once on the water. Apart from an apparent triennial pattern I've noticed (three years ago the Island had awesome weather, and I hope again for some of my planned trips this coming season), you must always be prepared for the worst, and allow adequate time which is synonymous with safety.(I find taking along noon-time-available instant-soup mixes invaluable for waiting out conditions). The following details may assist with your desire to be WWPW (weatherwise-paddlewise). I keep the following in my log book, available on excursion. It is part of a strategy with a view to maintains a professional mariner's attitude toward coastal weather. I suggest other PW'ers developed a similar informational architecture, as outlined below, but change the input factors to account for your particular locale or intended destination (if possible). Marine Forecast Times PST PDT 4:45 am 5:45 am 10:45 am 11:45 am 4:45 pm 5:45 pm 10:45 pm 11:45 pm The above issuance of Forecast times is usually supplemented at 1:45 am (PST) for near-shore areas along the Island's North Coast. Marine forecasts are valid for 24 hours with an outlook provided for a further 24 hours. The outlook mainly describes wind estimates for the 24 hour period following the main forecast. Predicted systems/winds do usually prevail, but may arrive earlier or later, and the prudent mariner will always include this in their continuing permutations. Note that amendments are issue as required and available, but that there are no guarantees. Observations from lighthouses may lag behind actual conditions subsequent to the earlier commencement of the report. The Synopsis This is given at the onset of the forecast by Environment Canada (EC). Both the LOCATION and INTENSITY are ascribed values for any relevant weather systems. For the forecasted period, general descriptions are indicated for both present and expected winds. IMPORTANT - forecasted wind speeds are AVERAGED in KNOTS, for over OPEN WATER. Additionally, a cursory description is normally included for atmospheric conditions, including but not limited to sun, showers, drizzle or fog. A statement may be given about expected visibility, especially if it is under one nautical mile. The Synopsis/Outlook's descriptive nonclamenture includes the following legend: Light winds 0-11 knots Moderate winds 12-19 knots Strong winds 20-33 knots Gale force winds 34-47 knots Storm force winds 48-63 knots Hurricane force winds 64 knots or more Marine Warnings Anytime wind velocities are expected to rise, the following WIND SPEED CATEGORIES are issued if those wind speeds are expected to be dominant: Small Craft Warning 20-33 knots Gale Warning 34-47 knots Storm Warning 48-63 knots Hurricane Force Wind Warning 64 knots or more (only means "hurricane strength") Between the months of mid November until April, specific Small Craft Warnings are not normally issued, as conditions are often in a range between 20 and 30 knots. Also, "Small Craft Warning" is based on wind strength, not the size of vessel. When a wind warning category is "flagged" by EC in the text of the actual forecast, the weather system(s) responsible is described, with an indication of the maximum velocities expected and when they are likely to diminish. A notation may be given if winds are expected to be gusty and/or sustained. EC DOES NOT ALWAYS issue a cancellation notice if a category is not attained, though you may hear references such as "Gale Warning ended". The above situation causes much confusion and derision amongst paddlesport enthusiasts when winds fail to transpire nearshore, in the forecast area boundary, or are only prevalent off-shore for extended periods away from immediate assimilation by the paddler. Sea State Conditions Sea state values are added to the Forecast for the various boundary areas. A particular location may experience significantly different conditions. The sea state values are traditionally a combination of wind wave and swell heights, unless otherwise noted. A given sea state value is averaged from significant wave heights, which are taken from observed or calculated heights of the highest one third of the waves. Announced values can be higher than the average height of all waves. This also causes much confusion and derision amongst paddlesport enthusiasts who may not observe what is being reported. Swells are just "larger" wind waves produced from distant systems far away from the local conditions being superimposed upon by locally generated wind waves. Average paddling-season swells run 1 to 3 meters. September may often experience 1/2 to 1 meter swells when prevalent NW winds abate. May (and June too, I suppose) paddling North of Brooks Peninsula is not encouraged, due to a combination of large swell, significant local wind wave heights, and wet weather. You can determine a rough guesstimate of wind wave heights by dividing the average steady wind by 10. Thus, a 30 knot wind would possibly produce a 3 metre sea. This presupposes a steady blow of 6 to 8 hours over open water. Calculations can be modified up or down, depending upon durations higher or lower. Predominant summer weather patterns for the west coast of Vancouver Island are roughly divided between the North Coast and South Coast regions. From May through Sept, a fairly stable Pacific high-pressure area off the coast deflects the storm tracks into the northern Gulf of Alaska. Weather will still impinge Vancouver Island, but the frontal systems are far less intense the further one travels southwards. The contrast between warm and cold air is far less in summer, which further reduces intensities. Bear in mind that wind speed records indicate the frequency of gales as far less in Summer. "Far less" doesn't mean they don't happen, of course. Due to the prevalence of northwest winds and gales, those paddling along the coast usually select a Southward progression. Winds in advance of fronts will usually come from the south or southwest, but close in nearshore waters, the effects will be southeast winds, stalling any progression on a southward route by the kayaker. Fronts are normally accompanied by a band of cloud and light rainfall that dissipates as the front moves southeast. Behind the front, a strong ridge of high pressure attempts to rebuild along the coast, producing the strong northwest winds following the frontal passage. Fronts will often stall, which can be bad news. During late spring or early summer, the fronts still retain some of the strength of winter storms, and can hit really hard and fast. I've been nailed by big seas and vicious southeasters in June, all along the southern west coast. Little warning is given, and barometric pressures may remain steady, foregoing that indicator of impending trouble. Often during the hotter days of summer, intense winds may not form from systems moving onshore, but from more subtle local effects. With a high pressure area over the eastern Pacific and a trough of low pressure in the southern interior, a Lee Trough forms after prolonged heating. The resultant easterly fow of winds produced by the thermal trough create gale force winds around Cape Scott and the Brooks Peninsula area. As the trough breaks down due to incoming disturbances, strong northwest winds spill down the southern coast. More typical of the southern portion of the west coast of the Island is to have light easterly or northeasterly winds occur during the evening and early morning, close to the coast, while further offshore northwest winds persist. An afternoon sea breeze will produce northwest winds of 15 knots, with 20-25 knots near places like Estavan Point. I find there is a world of difference once south of Brooks Peninsula. Abstract The weather forecasting situation for Vancouver Island's west coast is generally good, though mariners traveling nearshore coastal waters will have mostly negative things to say about EC due to some of the factors mentioned. Friction effects as wind gets closer to earth or coastal land can decrease the speed of the air movement and change its direction slightly. You must allow for this. If rain is your main complaint, travel further south. The normal approach to paddling the west coast of the Island is to do as much paddling by noon. This may not always work the further north one paddles. Lastly, conditions always look easier than they are once you get out into open water outside of an inlet or bay. It may not look too bad from your camp site, and once committed on the outside, paddlers often choose not to turn back, since they have broken camp, packed all up, put on paddling gear, etc. I always add a factor of 20 percent to what I can see from the beach, and don't go if it adds up to too difficult a day. I have also learned to turn back. I could probably make it, but is it worth the stress and extra output of energy? After all, we are usually supposed to be having a holiday. BC'in Ya Doug Lloyd *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
> At 06:53 PM 12/17/99 -0800, Mike wrote: > >As some may remember from my post last winter, I am tentatively planning a > >long west coast of Vancouver Island trip for next summer.<snip> > >unusually bad year, or my previous scenario was unrealisticly rosy,<snip>> > >Any long-term local knowledge of the area's weather (May to September)<snip> A few minor addenda to Doug Lloyd's excellent synopsis of his approach to doping out Vancouver Island sea conditions and weather: Doug wrote: > Sea State Conditions > Sea state values are added to the Forecast for the various boundary areas. > A particular location may experience significantly different conditions. > The sea state values are traditionally a combination of wind wave and swell > heights, unless otherwise noted. A given sea state value is averaged from > significant wave heights, which are taken from observed or calculated > heights of the highest one third of the waves. Announced values can be > higher than the average height of all waves. This also causes much > confusion and derision amongst paddlesport enthusiasts who may not observe > what is being reported. > Swells are just "larger" wind waves produced from distant systems far away > from the local conditions being superimposed upon by locally generated wind > waves. Average paddling-season swells run 1 to 3 meters. September may > often experience 1/2 to 1 meter swells when prevalent NW winds abate. May > (and June too, I suppose) paddling North of Brooks Peninsula is not > encouraged, due to a combination of large swell, significant local wind > wave heights, and wet weather. Two comments: 1. I want to emphasize that "significant wave heights" has a technical meaning different from what normal English would suppose. Thus, while many of the waves encountered will approximate the height quoted, *expect the occasional larger wave.* 2. For my tastes, swell (absent boomer-prompting reefs) is a piece of cake relative to the "seas" generated by local wind. Such "seas" are normally composed of very confused steeper and shorter period stuff -- which seem to give me way more trouble than true swell -- true swell being longer wavelength, not as steep, and not confused. (I love paddling in swell -- and don't like confused seas much at all!) > You can determine a rough guesstimate of wind wave heights by dividing the > average steady wind by 10. Thus, a 30 knot wind would possibly produce a 3 > metre sea. This presupposes a steady blow of 6 to 8 hours over open water. > Calculations can be modified up or down, depending upon durations higher or > lower. This sounds about right, but a caveat is in order: the wind which generates "wind waves" may not be the wind a paddler experiences locally. I've had a bunch of times when the lighthouses were reporting seas much rougher than the local wind would justify -- and when I have gotten outside to take a look, the lighthouse folks were invariably correct! Take your 'brolly. Michael! -- Dave Kruger Astoria, OR *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
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