Re: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate

Yes,

There was a discussion around a set of guidelines which attempted to objectively rate the risk of seakayaking.  The model concentrated on the conditions, which is great, and helps classify the event as SK1, ... SK6.

Some of the factors considered were wind speed, current, distance from shore, tidal changes and expected time to rescue.

What is missing, of course, is an objective way to rate the kayaker or group of kayakers.  

The charts were very helpful for me.  There were combinations of things I was doing, without realizing how they geometrically increased the risk factors.  (For example, I'm ok with a 15 kt wind.  I'm ok 3 miles from shore.  I'm ok kayaking alone.  I'm ok in a 2 kt current.  Combine all these at once and I'm up in SK4 conditions that I probably should not be out in alone.  Change that route to nearer the bridge (shorter crossing) or further down the bay (lesser currents) and the safety rating comes back to a modest SK2 or 3.)

Unfortunately, each person has to discover for himself what his own limits are.  One's skills are improved by testing them in difficult conditions. Headstrong people will continue to overestimate their own abilities and underestimate the hazard presented by the sea.

jerry.

At 03:55 PM 06/01/2000 -0500, NEWTOT_at_mail.modot.state.mo.us wrote:
>Hello,
>I'm new to the list, so this may be an old topic, but has the group discussed
>the "RULES OF ADVENTURE" in Nat'l Geographic 's Adventure magazine?  There is a
>good table that allows one to both estimate and eliminate risk, based on all the
>mountaineering accidents.  It is general enough to apply to anything.  This
>table has become my golden rule.  It was in the winter issue and I could
>probably type and post the table if interested....
>
>
>Tim
>CD Squall, Necky Looksha IV
>
>
>
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