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From: <NEWTOT_at_mail.modot.state.mo.us>
subject: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Thu, 1 Jun 2000 15:55:01 -0500
Hello,
I'm new to the list, so this may be an old topic, but has the group discussed
the "RULES OF ADVENTURE" in Nat'l Geographic 's Adventure magazine?  There is a
good table that allows one to both estimate and eliminate risk, based on all the
mountaineering accidents.  It is general enough to apply to anything.  This
table has become my golden rule.  It was in the winter issue and I could
probably type and post the table if interested....


Tim
CD Squall, Necky Looksha IV



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From: Seng, Dave <Dave_Seng_at_health.state.ak.us>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Thu, 1 Jun 2000 09:33:55 -0800
 -----Original Message-----
> From: Nick Von Robison [mailto:n.v.rob_at_deltanet.com]
snip
> Whoa, I was only inquiring about any existing stats, not 
> proposing that I or anyone
> else on PW compile them.  
snip
> 
> Dave Seng (or anyone else) I would suggest that there are CG 
> (or other agencies)
> files on sea kayaking deaths which are available for public perusal.

  While I agree that it might be a big task, I think that the success of the
AWA/Charlie Walbridge database is rooted in the information that he/they
receive from paddlers around the country.  I don't believe that Charlie or
Lee Belknap (AWA Safety Chair) spend significant portions of their days
searching for information.  If interest in this type of project is shown I'd
definitely be willing to contact the AWA and Charlie Walbridge to get more
details on the operation.
  The problem that I see with CG files, law enforcement records, etc is
three-fold:

1. The information is not gathered together in one easy to access location

2. The accidents are often not reviewed by knowledgeable paddlers

3. There is little (if any) attempt by these agencies to disseminate
information learned as a result of the accident investigations.

  If you've read Matt & George's book "Deep Trouble" you can probably
understand the incredible value derived from reviewing even a limited number
of accidents (although in great detail).  Could an accident database of sea
kayak and non-white water accidents help promote greater safety in the sport
in years to come?  I think that perhaps the answer is yes - if for no other
reason than that the information would be easily accessible and therefore
_visible_ to paddlers of all experience levels.
  If the concept is deemed worthy of discussion - and we could get PW
"sponsorship" (diskspace/DB backend/XHTML coding assist/etc) - then I'm open
to doing a little investigatory work.  
  Maybe Matt Broze or George Gronseth will have something to contribute to
conversation (that's a red carpet invitation Matt!) - they probably dealt
with many of the issues that a project like this would face while
researching the information for their book.
  If I'm off my rocker and in urgent need of a salt water sinus cleansing
just tell me and I'll drop the whole idea.

Dave Seng
Juneau, Alaska
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From: Nick Von Robison <n.v.rob_at_deltanet.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Thu, 01 Jun 2000 12:46:29 -0700
>   If I'm off my rocker and in urgent need of a salt water sinus cleansing
> just tell me and I'll drop the whole idea.
>

No, not off your rocker yet, until one of those calving glaciers get you.<g>

I think a comment from Matt or George might probably settle the issue, or maybe
solidify it.  I read "Deep Trouble" years ago and it didn't squelch my ardor for
sea kayaking, but as you say, it was based on a few events, most probably
because they were ones that could be researched totally and be collated into a
book.  How many others they looked into without suitable answers is a question
for them.  I know Matt is a frequent PW poster here and I will "roll out the red
carpet" in duplicate for him and/or George on this issue.

Otherwise, it's up to you on where you want to go with this, if anywhere.

-Nick


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From: Jackie Fenton <jackie_at_intelenet.net>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Thu, 1 Jun 2000 12:52:33 -0700 (PDT)
> From: "Seng, Dave" <Dave_Seng_at_health.state.ak.us>
From: "Seng, Dave" <Dave_Seng_at_health.state.ak.us>

>   If the concept is deemed worthy of discussion - and we could get PW
> "sponsorship" (diskspace/DB backend/XHTML coding assist/etc) - then I'm open
> to doing a little investigatory work. 

I think we can set it up so you can access the PW website and edit/store
your database.  I'll try to help where I can, time permitting, with the 
HTML stuff.

I think this is a great idea and a very worthwhile project.

Cheers,

Jackie


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From: Jerry Hawkins <jhawkins_at_cisco.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Thu, 01 Jun 2000 15:19:51 -0700
Yes,

There was a discussion around a set of guidelines which attempted to objectively rate the risk of seakayaking.  The model concentrated on the conditions, which is great, and helps classify the event as SK1, ... SK6.

Some of the factors considered were wind speed, current, distance from shore, tidal changes and expected time to rescue.

What is missing, of course, is an objective way to rate the kayaker or group of kayakers.  

The charts were very helpful for me.  There were combinations of things I was doing, without realizing how they geometrically increased the risk factors.  (For example, I'm ok with a 15 kt wind.  I'm ok 3 miles from shore.  I'm ok kayaking alone.  I'm ok in a 2 kt current.  Combine all these at once and I'm up in SK4 conditions that I probably should not be out in alone.  Change that route to nearer the bridge (shorter crossing) or further down the bay (lesser currents) and the safety rating comes back to a modest SK2 or 3.)

Unfortunately, each person has to discover for himself what his own limits are.  One's skills are improved by testing them in difficult conditions. Headstrong people will continue to overestimate their own abilities and underestimate the hazard presented by the sea.

jerry.

At 03:55 PM 06/01/2000 -0500, NEWTOT_at_mail.modot.state.mo.us wrote:
>Hello,
>I'm new to the list, so this may be an old topic, but has the group discussed
>the "RULES OF ADVENTURE" in Nat'l Geographic 's Adventure magazine?  There is a
>good table that allows one to both estimate and eliminate risk, based on all the
>mountaineering accidents.  It is general enough to apply to anything.  This
>table has become my golden rule.  It was in the winter issue and I could
>probably type and post the table if interested....
>
>
>Tim
>CD Squall, Necky Looksha IV
>
>
>
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> 
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From: Peter Treby <ptreby_at_ozemail.com.au>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Fri, 2 Jun 2000 11:02:44 +1000
<The "RULES OF ADVENTURE">
I'm curious, look forward to your post.
PT.

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From: Hal Christiansen <hal_at_mbox305.swipnet.se>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Fri, 2 Jun 2000 11:36:31 +0200
Where could I find a copy of these guidelines?
Are they on the Paddlewise Page, by any chance?

THANKS,
Hal

-----Original Message-----
From:	Jerry Hawkins [SMTP:jhawkins_at_cisco.com]
Sent:	den 2 juni 2000 00:20
To:	NEWTOT_at_mail.modot.state.mo.us; PaddleWise
Subject:	Re: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate

Yes,

There was a discussion around a set of guidelines which attempted to 
objectively rate the risk of seakayaking.  The model concentrated on the 
conditions, which is great, and helps classify the event as SK1, ... SK6.

Some of the factors considered were wind speed, current, distance from 
shore, tidal changes and expected time to rescue.

What is missing, of course, is an objective way to rate the kayaker or 
group of kayakers.

The charts were very helpful for me.  There were combinations of things I 
was doing, without realizing how they geometrically increased the risk 
factors.  (For example, I'm ok with a 15 kt wind.  I'm ok 3 miles from 
shore.  I'm ok kayaking alone.  I'm ok in a 2 kt current.  Combine all 
these at once and I'm up in SK4 conditions that I probably should not be 
out in alone.  Change that route to nearer the bridge (shorter crossing) or 
further down the bay (lesser currents) and the safety rating comes back to 
a modest SK2 or 3.)

Unfortunately, each person has to discover for himself what his own limits 
are.  One's skills are improved by testing them in difficult conditions. 
Headstrong people will continue to overestimate their own abilities and 
underestimate the hazard presented by the sea.

jerry.

At 03:55 PM 06/01/2000 -0500, NEWTOT_at_mail.modot.state.mo.us wrote:
>Hello,
>I'm new to the list, so this may be an old topic, but has the group 
discussed
>the "RULES OF ADVENTURE" in Nat'l Geographic 's Adventure magazine?  There 
is a
>good table that allows one to both estimate and eliminate risk, based on 
all the
>mountaineering accidents.  It is general enough to apply to anything. 
 This
>table has become my golden rule.  It was in the winter issue and I could
>probably type and post the table if interested....
>
>
>Tim
>CD Squall, Necky Looksha IV
>
>
>
>***********************************************************************  
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>
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From: Robert C. Cline <rccline_at_swbell.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Sun, 04 Jun 2000 08:35:14 -0500
Nigel Dennis' mantra:  "It's always worse than it looks."

Robert




> From: Hal Christiansen <hal_at_mbox305.swipnet.se>
> Reply-To: "hal_at_mbox305.swipnet.se" <hal_at_mbox305.swipnet.se>
> Date: Fri, 02 Jun 2000 11:36:31 +0200
> To: 'Jerry Hawkins' <jhawkins_at_cisco.com>, PaddleWise
> <PaddleWise_at_lists.intelenet.net>
> Subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
> 
> Unfortunately, each person has to discover for himself what his own limits
> are.  One's skills are improved by testing them in difficult conditions.
> Headstrong people will continue to overestimate their own abilities and
> underestimate the hazard presented by the sea.
> 
> jerry.

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From: Doug Lloyd <dlloyd_at_telus.net>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Fri, 02 Jun 2000 18:44:40 -0700
Hal Christiansen asked:
<<Where could I find a copy of these guidelines?
Are they on the Paddlewise Page, by any chance?>>

John Winters has a great website at:
<http://home.ican.net/~735769/techpage.htm>

You will find a link to his safety guidelines -- excellent information
and presentation for the newer paddler wanting to avoid trouble (as
opposed to those seeking adventure).

The Tsunami Rangers have a sea condition rating system too. Their shtick
is to take it to the max without going over it. Calculator not included
:-)

Best guidelines come from your gut instinct, but you have to be willing
to listen to yourself. Many of us don't, unfortunately, they stop
listening just about the same time they are finally saying something
useful :-).

BC'in Ya
Doug Lloyd (Combat paddler, gladiatorial wave-engager, poor listener)

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From: Doug Lloyd <dlloyd_at_telus.net>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Fri, 02 Jun 2000 23:02:15 -0700
I recently ended my post thusly:

>>BC'in Ya
Doug Lloyd (Combat paddler, gladiatorial wave-engager, poor listener)<<

Sorry, I don't know why I put that kind of stuff in my posts. Its not
very mature (but it is fun).

I do love rough water play, and sometimes my enthusiasm abounds a bit
too liberally here on the list. I was also still a bit "high" from my
victory on Thursday night: my younger buddy is getting married this
weekend, and we all went for a stag party that included evening paint
ball war games on a mountain play field with forts, in which I "killed"
everybody on the other teams consistently, capturing the flag every
time. (I can hardly walk today, and we won't mention what I did to my
back!).

I do think there is some application here to PW. You see, I never
doubted for a second when I started that game, that I would indeed win.
I "visualized" winning, and proceeded to divide and conquer. I think
this is the same attitude that Rob brought up the other day, regarding
attitude and never giving up. I apply this to all my hard core paddling,
or anytime my paddling activities might include the possibility of
rolling, etc.

When I talked to Chris Duff before his trip, he had no doubts about the
completion of his trip (though he did tell his sponsors he wouldn't kill
himself just to complete the trip for their sake).
Positive mental attitude. This is far from the testosterone charged
attitude of the "Just do it" generation. I've read a number of sea kayak
saga's, and for the most part, I've always seen, even if just through
inference, an attitude by the paddler that they were going to make it --
both at the macro and the micro scale. Exceptions are there, such as Don
Starknal in the Artic (in term of success), but perhaps there were some
technical deficiencies and other considerations with people having
"issues" if you catch my drift.

Venerable examples confirm my notion, such as some of Paul Cafynn's
writings, and even the venerated Dr Linderman, who never doubted he
would achieve his goal of crossing the Atlantic. I think a big part of
rolling success in combat conditions is attributable to positive mental
attitude, and so too with self rescues. I know at Trial Island, I lacked
the intrinsic mental fortitude required that day to achieve my roll and
R&R (there were other factors too). I never lacked for thinking I would
make it home that incident, however.

As far as sea kayakers and the attrition rate, perhaps we need to turn
out better new paddlers, ones with appropriate mental attitude, or teach
them how to derive it. I like what I'm hearing from guys like Rob
Cookson. He's on the right track. Rob's example of the student who
required a whole lot of convincing to get back in his boat during an
assisted rescue, really struck me like lightning. Yeah, with paddlers
like that out there, the attrition rate is sure to grow. Maybe I'm off
the mark on this. Time will tell. However, I'm a pretty good shot,
apparently.

BC'in Ya
Doug Lloyd (whose headed out for one of the lowest tides of the year
this weekend - read, fast -. See ya on the water at 7 knots. I'll
behave. Anyone going out to Deception Pass here in the PNW?)

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From: Hal Christiansen <hal_at_mbox305.swipnet.se>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate
Date: Sat, 3 Jun 2000 12:10:27 +0200
Doug,

Thanks for the reply.
I remembered seeing this rating system before and wanted to revisit it.

I found the chart under http://home.ican.net/~735769/index.html
following the links to "paddling safety" and then "holistic sea kayak 
safety"
Now I suppose I need to review the skill rating charts discussed :- )

Personally I believe in your statement :
Best guidelines come from your gut instinct, but you have to be willing
to listen to yourself. Many of us don't, unfortunately, they stop
listening just about the same time they are finally saying something
useful :-).

In SCUBA diving my companions and I follow a STRICT RULE.
ANY diver can call (i.e. cancel) a dive at ANY time for ANY reason.
NO QUESTIONS are asked until well after the fact when it is a discussion 
for future reference.

My paddling partners and I follow a similiar rule. I can recall several 
occassions when we packed up and found another put in because someone felt 
uncomfortable with what we where looking at.

THANKS AGAIN,
Hal




-----Original Message-----
From:	Doug Lloyd [SMTP:dlloyd_at_telus.net]
Sent:	den 3 juni 2000 03:45
To:	PaddleWise_at_lists.intelenet.net
Subject:	RE: [Paddlewise] Sea Kayaker attrition rate

Hal Christiansen asked:
<<Where could I find a copy of these guidelines?
Are they on the Paddlewise Page, by any chance?>>

John Winters has a great website at:
<http://home.ican.net/~735769/techpage.htm>

You will find a link to his safety guidelines -- excellent information
and presentation for the newer paddler wanting to avoid trouble (as
opposed to those seeking adventure).

The Tsunami Rangers have a sea condition rating system too. Their shtick
is to take it to the max without going over it. Calculator not included
:-)

Best guidelines come from your gut instinct, but you have to be willing
to listen to yourself. Many of us don't, unfortunately, they stop
listening just about the same time they are finally saying something
useful :-).

BC'in Ya
Doug Lloyd (Combat paddler, gladiatorial wave-engager, poor listener)

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