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From: Peter A. Chopelas <pac_at_premier1.net>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Puget-sound area paddlers...
Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 17:41:32 -0800
Apologies in advance if this is off topic but there are a lot PWers 
affected by the recent event:

I have always found it interesting that some of the most seismically active 
areas of the world are also the most populated.  The Mediterranean, 
California, Japan, etc.  Thinking about it is likely because these areas 
would have more and better harbors, more mineral resources and always have 
the most breathtaking views and scenic wonders.  Indeed it is the natural 
beauty that attracts many people to the Pacific Northwest and Alaska as 
both a place to live and as a vacation destination, including sea kayaker. 
 But beware, the beautiful irregular sea scapes and spectacular mountains 
got that way because of the powerful geologic forces that formed them.

I am a Professional Engineer and most of my life is spent doing seismic 
analysis and geotechnical investigation and inspections in the Puget Sound 
area on buildings and other structures and I have my own perspective on 
this.  I have a lot of local geologic reference materials about the Puget 
Sound area for my work, and I have also spent my school years and much of 
my life in Southern California as well.

There is nothing different about earthquakes in the Puget Sound and Los 
Angeles areas, both areas are surrounded by mountains, both are along the 
Pacific "Ring of Fire", both are seismically active.  If there is any 
difference it is just that some of them in PS are deep, but we also get 
many more destructive shallow earthquakes as well.  Also much of the Puget 
Sound basin can be liquefaction prone, fine grain alluvial outwash 
saturated with high water tables.  These kinds of soils exaggerate the 
accelerations and are far less predictable.  The fact that this recent 
event did not kill anyone is pure luck.

I calculated that if this last event was at 5 miles deep, which is much 
more common, instead of 30 miles it would have released 36 times (that is 
3600 percent!) more destructive energy at the surface.  Needless to say 
there would not have been much of Seattle, Tacoma, and Olympia left.  All 
of the older historic unrienforced masonry buildings would have been 
totally destroyed, since I have inspected many like them I am actually very 
surprised they are still standing at all even with the deep event.

The Puget Sound area routinely has about 40 earthquakes a month, most are 
small and not noticed or are in remote, unpopulated areas which is actually 
most of Western Washington (despite what many in the area think,  we are 
not crowed here, we are compacted into only a few high population density 
areas, but the truth is the whole state of Washington has only about half 
of the population which live within the city limits of Los Angeles alone, 
never mind LA county or even the whole LA metro area).

I think it is because of this low population over most of the area that 
many have the false perception there is a much lower earthquake hazard in 
this area than California, and many have lobbied for, and we now have, much 
less rigorous seismic codes.  And the kind of incredibly stupid and 
incompetent lawmakers we have around here would probably do the wrong thing 
even if they understood we had a problem.  We currently build to a seismic 
zone 3 (approx. magnitude 6.5 event), I think we should be building to 
seismic zone 4 requirements (approx. mag 7.5) as they do in California. 
 Even so most (but not all) Building Officials, architects, engineers, and 
builders do not know what they are doing anyway so adequate enforcement is 
another problem.

There are usually smaller remote buildings damaged or destroyed by 
earthquakes in this area about every three years!  Since there is almost 
never injures or deaths, and isolated to the remote areas, people forget 
and do not perceive this as a real danger.
Yet during the recent geologic history of the area there have been over 18 
events over mag 5.0, including 4 over 6.5 with two being the very 
destructive shallow types.  One of the largest of these was a near surface 
event of mag 7.4 that was centered only about 30 miles east of where I am 
in Arlington (about 60 miles North of Seattle).  Needless to say I designed 
and built my own house to meet a much higher standard than the building 
codes require.

Interesting, despite the property damage, even severe earthquakes in the 
United States have never caused a lot of deaths, unlike many third world 
countries.  Even so it  causes a lot of panic in people, but historically 
your chances of getting killed in a major seismic event is almost 
non-existent.  What is over 100,000 times more likely to kill you are 
things you have control over, what you eat, smoke, if you wear your seat 
belt in your car, wear a helmet on your bike, or do really stupid things in 
your sea kayak.

But if you live in a seismically active area you will almost certainly 
sooner or later suffer property damage, and at the very least be greatly 
inconvenienced.

Peter
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