Re: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching

"Geoff Jennings" <geoff_at_sedakayak.com> wrote:

>> Off course, the difficulty  is deeper than that.   It would also be
necessary to know what percentage of the people who didn't die were wearing
PFDs.   In whitewater, it's VERY rare to see a kayaker without a PFD on.
So I would imagine that the majority of deaths in ww would involve people
wearing PFDs.

In your sea Kayaker study, it would be interesting to know what percentage
of "sea Kayakers" are wearing PFDs. If 85% of Kayakers are wearing them, and
they only account for 56% of deaths, then it would suggest that you're
better off with them that without...

I'm not saying that the case, just that those numbers alone leave something
to be desired when drawing conclusions about their effectiveness. >>

Geoff has hit on one of the better ways to look at the data.  Certainly
whether a person is wearing a PFD at time of drowning  (or, __not__ wearing
a PFD at time of drowning) might be important.  But, it will take
sophisticated analysis to extract a __cause and effect__ relationship.  And,
perhaps, a sophisticated audience which will understand which analyses are
bogus and which are not [of course, _we_ are all sophisticated, aren't we?].

Now, put those data into the hands of the typical state legislature, and
apply the sophisticometer.  What do you get?  Half the time, some pretty
silly laws, some based in ignorance, some based in stupidity (inability to
use facts well).

What should we do?  Organize -- join ACA or a similar group that fits your
preferences.  Write our state legislator when obnoxious laws are proposed.
Go to town meetings that focus on such legislation.

It's a cinch that isolated voices will get short shrift in any legislative
tangle.  In Oregon, we avoided a really obnoxious law restricting use of
streambeds (e.g., walking __in__ the streambed -- navigable waters included,
IIRC) when a coalition of steelhead fishers, paddlers, and the like banded
together, spent their own money, and hit the legislature pretty hard.  I
might mention that frequent Paddlewise contributor Steve Scherrer and his
business (Alder Creek, Portland) were linchpins in that effort.

The ACA pamphlet is an important piece of literature in this fight.  It
identifies the problem (and, it ain't us -- it's mainly entry-level paddlers
untutored in handling their craft, PFD or no PFD) and proposes solutions,
__none__, that's __none__ of which include registration of boats or boat
taxes, or the like.  It is a great piece of educational material to hand
your state legislator when a law, mandating "training" before a person puts
paw to paddle, comes up

But, it is only a tool.  We will have to be vigilant or we will end up with
restrictions none of us can stomach.

And, no, I wear my PFD all the time while paddling.  If asked to wear a
conventional PFD while snorkeling, I'd have the same response as the initial
reporter:  stuff it!  I'd also have the same reponse in __some__ kinds of
surfing situations.  Certainly I would if I had to body surf -- can't do it
in a bulky PFD.

--
Dave Kruger
Astoria, OR
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