Ken Fink always used to drive home the fetch and duration factor in his symposium talks. He felt most reports by kayakers over estimated wave heights. Ken even went so far as to state that many articles he's read were not properly corroborated by the writer or editor. He said he was going to write a book about waves, wind and swell, specifically geared for sea kayakers. I'm still waiting. Doug > Doug wrote: > ....snip >> paddler doubles their estimate and then a newspaper reported factors in >> another doubling, well, it doesn't take long to have 20 foot seas on the >> Great Lakes at half the needed 60 knots to really generate those seas. On > ....snip > > Check out this forecast for the inshore waters south shore Lake Superior: > > NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI > 533 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 > FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE > LSZ241-242-040600- > > UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- > 533 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 > ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS > EVENING... > ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH > THURSDAY AFTERNOON... > .TONIGHT...NE WIND TO 30 KT INCREASING TO GALES TO 35 KT BY > MIDNIGHT...THEN BACKING N LATE. SNOW. WAVES 4 TO 6 FT BUILDING TO > 15 TO 20 FT. > .WED...N GALES TO 40 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. WAVES BUILDING TO 20 TO 25 > FT. > .WED NIGHT...NW GALES TO 35 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. WAVES 20 TO 25 FT. > > I can't find my wind speed/wave height tables but is this even possible > with only 40 kt gales? I won't be out there in my kayak but I'll be > looking for a protected cove with my surfboard. > -mike *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Mike, when I contacted the writer of the story, I did give her full disclosure that while her article was well received on paddlewise we did have questions about the leakage issue and the wave heights (specifically that the latter is often exaggerated). We had a link earlier for historical data that couldn't be opened with my browser. You have an example below of Michigan lake wave height forcasts, but I'd like to see the data for both the forcasted and the actual for the date of the incident. The story was issued April 3,2007, but the text indicated a different date for the actual trip: "There was no reason to think that would happen this past October 9th, however. The weather was mild; the winds were calm; the two men were well equipped and up for the challenge." I assume this was the fall of 2006. I'd like to see the correct data for that time frame. I'm not sure what dates were referened in the other post. BTW, I got the e-mail address of the two paddlers involved in the incident. If anyone has further questions, I volunteer to contact either Mike or Paul, rather than questions coming from multiple sources. These guys are probably embarrassed enough as it is. Doug Lloyd > Doug wrote: > ....snip >> paddler doubles their estimate and then a newspaper reported factors in >> another doubling, well, it doesn't take long to have 20 foot seas on the >> Great Lakes at half the needed 60 knots to really generate those seas. On > ....snip > > Check out this forecast for the inshore waters south shore Lake Superior: > > NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI > 533 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 > FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE > LSZ241-242-040600- > > UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- > 533 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 > ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS > EVENING... > ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH > THURSDAY AFTERNOON... > .TONIGHT...NE WIND TO 30 KT INCREASING TO GALES TO 35 KT BY > MIDNIGHT...THEN BACKING N LATE. SNOW. WAVES 4 TO 6 FT BUILDING TO > 15 TO 20 FT. > .WED...N GALES TO 40 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. WAVES BUILDING TO 20 TO 25 > FT. > .WED NIGHT...NW GALES TO 35 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. WAVES 20 TO 25 FT. > > I can't find my wind speed/wave height tables but is this even possible > with only 40 kt gales? I won't be out there in my kayak but I'll be > looking for a protected cove with my surfboard. > -mike *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Mike, I see you were referring to Lake Superior to illustrate a point. Anyway, I'd still like to see the forecast data, etc, for Lake Michigan south for October 9, 2006 if anyone has details. The article from Chicago Mag.com by Sharon Bloyd-Peshkin stated: "They had no illusions, however. They had watched the weather during the week before their trip. One day the forecast for October 9th called for waves of three to five feet, the next day four to six feet, then three to five again. At one point, the forecast shot up to six to eight. "When I heard six to eight, I thought, It's going to be too rough; we shouldn't do it," Paul recalls. But then it diminished again and so did his concerns. On the day of the trip, they expected the wind to shift and the waves to build, but not beyond what they felt comfortable handling. " And: "Their exuberance was short-lived. The wind was easily 20 knots and the waves were six to eight feet." "Then a nine-foot wave caught Mike and knocked him over. He rolled up, but another wave took him right over again." Thanks, Doug L > Mike, when I contacted the writer of the story, I did give her full > disclosure that while her article was well received on paddlewise we did > have questions about the leakage issue and the wave heights (specifically > that the latter is often exaggerated). > > We had a link earlier for historical data that couldn't be opened with my > browser. You have an example below of Michigan lake wave height forcasts, > but I'd like to see the data for both the forcasted and the actual for the > date of the incident. The story was issued April 3,2007, but the text > indicated a different date for the actual trip: > > "There was no reason to think that would happen this past October 9th, > however. The weather was mild; the winds were calm; the two men were well > equipped and up for the challenge." > > I assume this was the fall of 2006. > > I'd like to see the correct data for that time frame. I'm not sure what > dates were referened in the other post. > > BTW, I got the e-mail address of the two paddlers involved in the > incident. If anyone has further questions, I volunteer to contact either > Mike or Paul, rather than questions coming from multiple sources. These > guys are probably embarrassed enough as it is. > > Doug Lloyd > > >> Doug wrote: >> ....snip >>> paddler doubles their estimate and then a newspaper reported factors in >>> another doubling, well, it doesn't take long to have 20 foot seas on the >>> Great Lakes at half the needed 60 knots to really generate those seas. >>> On >> ....snip >> >> Check out this forecast for the inshore waters south shore Lake Superior: >> >> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI >> 533 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 >> FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE >> LSZ241-242-040600- >> >> UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- >> 533 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 >> ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS >> EVENING... >> ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH >> THURSDAY AFTERNOON... >> .TONIGHT...NE WIND TO 30 KT INCREASING TO GALES TO 35 KT BY >> MIDNIGHT...THEN BACKING N LATE. SNOW. WAVES 4 TO 6 FT BUILDING TO >> 15 TO 20 FT. >> .WED...N GALES TO 40 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. WAVES BUILDING TO 20 TO 25 >> FT. >> .WED NIGHT...NW GALES TO 35 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. WAVES 20 TO 25 FT. >> >> I can't find my wind speed/wave height tables but is this even possible >> with only 40 kt gales? I won't be out there in my kayak but I'll be >> looking for a protected cove with my surfboard. >> -mike *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
I found this primer on swell and wind to be interesting: pesdapress.com/pdfs/SK15BigSwell.pdf Doug Lloyd *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
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