On Jul 2, 2007, at 1:07 PM, Craig Jungers wrote: > > >> But you claimed Caffyn's data stands on its own. Clearly it doesn't. > > > Clearly it does. It's data. It's recorded. It's not opinion or > hearsay. It > needs someone to go out and repeat it. It might bear further > analysis. But > it doesn't need unjustified opinions. My first car had manual steering. My new car has power steering. I got better gas mileage with my old car than I am now getting with my new one. (kind of sad) Therefore: Manual steering is more fuel efficient for all cars. Caffyn's data is undoubtedly accurate. That doesn't mean you can draw any generalized conclusions from it. There are a lot of variables that can effect the results. Lets assume the boats he used for each trip were identical except for the rudder. Lets further assume that he loaded the boat identically and the weather and ocean conditions were identical. We can also assume that on his second trip he had already done the trip once previously. This fact alone is enough to explain a large portion of his experience that the second trip was easier. I know that going places I've been before always seems easier and goes faster. I think the experience of doing a long expedition inevitably makes someone better at doing long expeditions. While that experience does not effect the kayak, it does effect the meat powering the kayak. I think it is typical that long distance travelers cover more ground at the end of a trip than they do at the beginning. I would be surprise if given identical conditions, and identical boats, the second trip was not faster. One feature of humans is they learn and get better at doing things. But even if you could rule out every other variable in his experience and be absolutely sure that the only thing different between the two trips was the rudder and could thus conclude that the rudder is the sole source of any difference, this does not mean you can generalize the results to other boats in other conditions, paddle by other paddlers, paddling with different loads. There may be something peculiar about the boat, paddler, or conditions that resulted in the rudder creating an increase in efficiency. The boat he used may be particularly unbalanced, requiring an unusual amount of correction to maintain course. Mr. Caffyn may have some peculiarity in his paddling technique that a rudder overcomes. The conditions he paddled in may have been such that a rudder was especially beneficial. There is a lot more to Caffyn's trips than the presence or lack of a rudder. While any data that comes out of the trip is interesting, it can not stand by itself because we don't know much about the circumstances that created the data. There is more to the difference in mileage of my two cars than the presence or lack of power steering. No one would think to conclude that one man's experience with two different cars can be translated to apply to all cars with all people. More data is required be for you can conclude anything. Nick Nick Schade Guillemot Kayaks 824 Thompson St Glastonbury, CT 06033 USA Ph/Fx: (860) 659-8847 http://www.guillemot-kayaks.com/ *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************Received on Mon Jul 02 2007 - 11:10:55 PDT
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