Re: [Paddlewise] Winter in a time of Climate Change

Mike Euritt wrote:

[Dave wrote:]
> Craig has been working very hard here, trying to convince folks that
> science is a good tool to use for helping to decide public policy, at least
> in areas where science has evidence and conclusions that politicians (and
> the public) might heed.

> Hi Dave, in the interest of friendly discussion
>  
> /I do not, and am unlikely to believe until what is reported makes 
> simple sense. [snip]

Mike,

You are good to offer up a countering point of view on this; in fact 
arguments countering the idea that GW is a reality are the sort of thing 
which has been going on in serious climatological circles for at least 35 
years I know of.  Early on, there was absolutely no consensus or agreement 
amongst knowledgeable, well-trained people on whether global warming was 
real or not, let alone the proposition that the rise in so-called 
greenhouse gases from human activities was a significant cause of GW.  That 
is no longer true.

The debate amongst climatologists quickly went past what you or I might 
label "simple sense" because of the complexity of the problem.  I do not 
think any of us who are untrained in the field are going to comprehend how 
good the models are, or their limits.  That is why I suspect many of us 
have been so reluctant to jump on this bandwagon.  Longtime Paddlewisers 
may recall some acrimonious exchanges between Kevin (last name is gone from 
my memory) and me ... he taking the position GW was real, and me that it 
was not.  That was about 5-7 years ago, IIRC.

The system-wide changes in surface seawater changes, especially in the 
Arctic, as well as a growing consensus amongst climatologists, have 
convinced me that Kevin was right and I was wrong.  I do not listen to Gore 
on this.  Gore is a well-meaning man but has no credentials or training in 
this area.  He is not a leader to the scientific community, simply a 
politician making hay on it.

When hardshelled curmudgeons (yeah, that's me) with long experience 
observing the rise and fall of scientific "fads" change their minds on 
something like this, it really is time to pay attention.  We have a 
problem.  We need to take measured, reasonable steps to deal with it.

-- 
Dave Kruger
Astoria, OR
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