Re: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves

From: Ari Saarto <asaarto_at_elisanet.fi>
Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2009 08:39:21 +0300
Hello Tord and all,

please let me put a little bit light into the Estonia case, because it  
is very widely discussed (I do not believe still living theories about  
a conspiracy). The number of casualties is about 800: mostly Swedes,  
Finns and Estonians.

The ship had pretty huge construction and reconstruction problems in  
the bow visor - and took continuos beating onto the bow during the  
final night.

There are no special information about a rogue wave, but rather  
interesting statistics (from the report, http://www.onnettomuustutkinta.fi/estonia/chapt13_1.html) 
:

"The weather at the accident site at about 0100 hrs was rough but not  
extreme. The wind was south-westerly, mean velocity 18 - 20 m/s.  
Statistically, winds of such force occur five to ten times annually  
during the autumn and the winter in the northern Baltic Sea. The  
significant wave height was about 4 m. Generating a wave pattern with  
a significant wave height of this magnitude requires wind of 15 - 20 m/ 
s from S - SW for at least ten hours.
Numerous studies of wave statistics show that, if the significant wave  
height is 4 m, one wave in a hundred will be higher than 6 m. A  
maximum wave height is estimated as twice the significant height.
The weather forecast for the midnight hours predicted a significant  
wave height of only 2.5 to 3.5 m whereas the actual height was about  
one metre more. Even if the predictions had been correct, this would  
most likely not have changed the way the passage was conducted."

I remember still the awful morning, receiving the first news and  
images of the disaster.

Ari Saarto
- navigare necesse est -
http://asaarto1.blogspot.com/




On 1. syys 2009, at 01:17, Tord S. Eriksson wrote:
>
> The Estonia ferry, that killed about as many Swedes as the Tsunami,
> or close to a thousand, also met a really big wave which ripped its
> bow off - could a rogue appear in a lake (very big, an inland sea)?
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Received on Mon Aug 31 2009 - 23:57:46 PDT

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