Re: [Paddlewise] PFDs

Careful With That Axe, Eugene

I don't know to what purpose the statistic might be put, but if you are in
any way making inferences about the future (and you have an interest in
being accurate) you probably would do better to leave it out of your
argument. If however you are merely speaking about the time period, location
and population in which the data were collected, as in comparing one year to
another in the same city, then it's fair play.

Some things that can't be done with a statistic like that:

o attempt to predict the future when there are changing external conditions
o make statements about the likelihood of an outcome with respect to an
individual (regardless of whether they are a member of the sampled
population or not)

Take the chance of dying in a car crash if 1 of 5000 people in a
city/state/county/world died last year. Any one individual is not average.
They are unique. They might have a habit of driving while texting with their
open bottle of beer between their legs and not wearing a seat belt. Another
might not drive during rush hour amongst those pretty young things putting
on their makeup (or guys shaving) or people texting with their coffee
between their legs.

Same for paddling and paddlers. Do you judge the situation and go for coffee
instead? Do you take adequate safety precautions (skills or gear or skills
with gear?) Are you fit or flabby? Is the water warm or cold? Calm or
angry?

For a more detailed explanation about what you can and can't infer about the
future or even alternate populations from a given sample see:

Wiki on statistical
frame<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)#Sampling_frame>

If you don't know how the sample was taken, then you can't know to which use
you may legitimately put the statistic. I am going to stop short
of inferring that you intend to plump up an argument with a "statistic" that
sounds good but really doesn't apply, because all I can say is that a lot
of, maybe most of, and possibly all the statistics quoted by the talking
heads on TV (and the web is worse) are misused and misleading. But that
doesn't allow me to predict what you might do, now does it?  ;->

Oh, and extra points to anyone who knows from whom I borrowed the title of
this pet peeve rant.


On Thu, Jan 21, 2010 at 5:15 AM, MATT MARINER BROZE
<marinerkayaks_at_msn.com>wrote:

> I wrote:
> >If you knew the odds of drowning while kayaking during each year were one
> in
> >5000 would you paddle?
> >If you live in an urban area that is about the average risk of dying in an
> >auto accident (each year) if you drive a car.
>
> Daniel: gypsy_trillium_at_yahoo.ca wrote".
> >>>>>>>Are these quotable and verifiable statistics Matt? If they are, I've
> a
> use
> for them. Thanks!
> ~~~daniel~<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
>
> I first read that statistic in a book called "The Myth of Heterosexual
> Aids" copyrigt 1990. At that time most writers on the subject were predicting a
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