I wrote: >If you knew the odds of drowning while kayaking during each year were one in >5000 would you paddle? >If you live in an urban area that is about the average risk of dying in an >auto accident (each year) if you drive a car. Daniel: gypsy_trillium_at_yahoo.ca wrote". >>>>>>>Are these quotable and verifiable statistics Matt? If they are, I've a use for them. Thanks! ~~~daniel~<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< I first read that statistic in a book called "The Myth of Heterosexual Aids" copyright 1990. At that time most writers on the subject were predicting a world wide pandemic of Aids to sweep the world unless we took drastic measures to stop it. The author, Michael Fumento, used that statistic to point out that if you were a heterosexual it was more dangerous to drive a mile to buy a condom than to have unprotected sex with a random heterosexual of the opposite sex. He also pointed out the inconvenient truth that because of the difficulty in catching with each sexual encounter (about 1 in 300 for men and 1 in 100 for women) that being in a committed monogamous relationship was more dangerous than promiscuous sex because of the far fewer sexual encounters for the promiscuous individual each year vs. the ten times less risk for using a condom. I questioned the risk level for driving that he claimed so I made a calculation of it myself (using the number of motorists that died in a year and the number of drivers, I think) and got about the same result. I think death rates for motorists have decreased some since then, likely due to nearly all vehicles having airbags now. Still you can probably find out that statistic somewhere or do you own calculation of it if you want to use it. It was an interesting book. It also taught me about the "Coolidge Effect". You will have to look that up for yourself. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Yes, good ol' Silent Cal. He couldn't talk much, he was winded from all the ladies! It was the "Coolidge Effect" that convinced me to become a Republican! Finally a politician with the kind of policy I could embrace. M On 1/21/2010 2:15 AM, MATT MARINER BROZE wrote: It was an interesting book. It also taught me about the "Coolidge Effect". You will have to look that up for yourself. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Careful With That Axe, Eugene I don't know to what purpose the statistic might be put, but if you are in any way making inferences about the future (and you have an interest in being accurate) you probably would do better to leave it out of your argument. If however you are merely speaking about the time period, location and population in which the data were collected, as in comparing one year to another in the same city, then it's fair play. Some things that can't be done with a statistic like that: o attempt to predict the future when there are changing external conditions o make statements about the likelihood of an outcome with respect to an individual (regardless of whether they are a member of the sampled population or not) Take the chance of dying in a car crash if 1 of 5000 people in a city/state/county/world died last year. Any one individual is not average. They are unique. They might have a habit of driving while texting with their open bottle of beer between their legs and not wearing a seat belt. Another might not drive during rush hour amongst those pretty young things putting on their makeup (or guys shaving) or people texting with their coffee between their legs. Same for paddling and paddlers. Do you judge the situation and go for coffee instead? Do you take adequate safety precautions (skills or gear or skills with gear?) Are you fit or flabby? Is the water warm or cold? Calm or angry? For a more detailed explanation about what you can and can't infer about the future or even alternate populations from a given sample see: Wiki on statistical frame<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)#Sampling_frame> If you don't know how the sample was taken, then you can't know to which use you may legitimately put the statistic. I am going to stop short of inferring that you intend to plump up an argument with a "statistic" that sounds good but really doesn't apply, because all I can say is that a lot of, maybe most of, and possibly all the statistics quoted by the talking heads on TV (and the web is worse) are misused and misleading. But that doesn't allow me to predict what you might do, now does it? ;-> Oh, and extra points to anyone who knows from whom I borrowed the title of this pet peeve rant. On Thu, Jan 21, 2010 at 5:15 AM, MATT MARINER BROZE <marinerkayaks_at_msn.com>wrote: > I wrote: > >If you knew the odds of drowning while kayaking during each year were one > in > >5000 would you paddle? > >If you live in an urban area that is about the average risk of dying in an > >auto accident (each year) if you drive a car. > > Daniel: gypsy_trillium_at_yahoo.ca wrote". > >>>>>>>Are these quotable and verifiable statistics Matt? If they are, I've > a > use > for them. Thanks! > ~~~daniel~<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< > > I first read that statistic in a book called "The Myth of Heterosexual > Aids" copyrigt 1990. At that time most writers on the subject were predicting a *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
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