RE: [Paddlewise] Where did that global warming go, or when will the winter end?

Here's what Professor Jones actually said. Note that what he means by
"significant" is not what most of us mean by the word. To minimize "noise"
in climate data from volcanic eruptions, periodic events such as El Nino and
such, climatologists prefer to look for trends over 30-year periods rather
than the 15 in the question. Paddlewisers who understand statistics can
probably explain this better. For the complete interview, go to 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm.

"B - Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no
statistically-significant global warming"

"Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to
2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the
95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the
significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms
is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter
periods."

Chuck Holst 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Perhaps global warming got lost in the shuffle of papers on Professor 
Phil Jones desk at GW Central! Apparently he has trouble keeping track 
of his data and such!

*http://tinyurl.com/yb2loyt*

He does answer Tord's question somewhat by stating there has been no 
statistically significant warming for 15 years--don't know if he went on 
to explain how that fits into the GW climate models with the CO2 still 
rising.
I was interested to read he's not so keen on totally dismissing the 
Medievel Warming Period as an indicator that any current warming may 
just be part of a normal earth cycle.
As he seems to have lost some of the crucial data, perhaps he won't be 
helping to straighten things out.

Mark--who admits he's not partial to equations


 

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