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From: Tord <tord_at_mindless.com>
subject: [Paddlewise] Where did that global warming go, or when will the winter end?
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2010 04:18:17 -0500
Here in southwestern Sweden the winter has been long and cold -
most winters the last decades have been more or less snow-less,
but often below freezing. The little snow we usually have arrive around
January 1st, and stays for a week, or so, then melts, and then we get
some more, which quickly disappears.

Here we had an unusually dry autumn, in some places record-settingly 
warm,
and all here in the south thought we would not get any winter at all.

But early in December the snow arrived (so we had a white Christmas
- very rare event here), and it is still here (even if some of it has 
melted
inbetween, no bare surfaces), and we've been warned that a snow
storm might be approaching!

Passing through Amsterdam, on our way to, and back from, Thailand,
we've seen that they have been blessed/cursed with even more snow
than we, which must be an utterly rare event!

In conclusion, it is evident that the jet streams have moved elsewhere
than their usual routes this winter, resulting in the Vancouver Winter
Olympics taking place on man-made, or man-transported, snow.

The world is out of synch, I think!

All the best,

Tord

PS Yesterday a woman ski sprinter fell off the track, which was built
on-top of a series of aluminium boxes, so she fell about nine feet, onto
the bare ground, consisting of rocks, and more boxes. The gutsy
lady, with broken/bruised ribs and molested inner organs, did non the
less continue to compete, if not win!
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From: Craig Jungers <crjungers_at_gmail.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Where did that global warming go, or when will the winter end?
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2010 05:48:58 -0800
On Thu, Feb 18, 2010 at 1:18 AM, Tord <tord_at_mindless.com> wrote:

> Here in southwestern Sweden the winter has been long and cold
>

Global waring is alive and well in the Northwestern area of North America.
Except for a bitterly cold December (with temperatures just above zero
Fahrenheit) we're pretty much warm and cozy; if a bit wetter than usual. I
would like it more if it hadn't screwed up cross-country skiing.

Today they say it will be sunshine and very close to 60F when normal temps
in mid-February would be 30-deg (F) cooler. But there was a lot of newer
snow in the mountains from a big weather system that pumped through over the
weekend. It was nice to see that as I drove west on I-90 yesterday.

Speaking of cross-country (Nordic) skiing, the coverage on NBC of this facet
of the Winter Olympics has been much better than ever before. As a result we
were treated to the unusual sight of that female Nordic skier taking a nasty
fall (into a culvert). The Nordic sprints were pretty exciting to watch,
too.

I just wish they'd cover paddling events as well for the Summer Olympics.
Maybe in 3-1/2 years they will.

Even with the warmer temperatures I have not been paddling. This is partly
due to the rocks that litter my "beach" when the lake is at winter
elevations and partly due to the fact that the water temp is still in the
low 30s. Getting into, and back out of, a kayak is always a difficult thing
for me to accomplish and doing it while the kayak is balanced on rocks
surrounded by frigid water is, to say the least, a bit off-putting.

Tord.... hope your mom is doing well. We're thinking of her, here. :)

Craig Jungers
Moses Lake, WA
www.nwkayaking.net
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From: Mark Sanders <marksanders_at_sandmarks.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Where did that global warming go, or when will the winter end?
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2010 07:41:50 -0800
Perhaps global warming got lost in the shuffle of papers on Professor 
Phil Jones desk at GW Central! Apparently he has trouble keeping track 
of his data and such!

*http://tinyurl.com/yb2loyt*

He does answer Tord's question somewhat by stating there has been no 
statistically significant warming for 15 years--don't know if he went on 
to explain how that fits into the GW climate models with the CO2 still 
rising.
I was interested to read he's not so keen on totally dismissing the 
Medievel Warming Period as an indicator that any current warming may 
just be part of a normal earth cycle.
As he seems to have lost some of the crucial data, perhaps he won't be 
helping to straighten things out.

Mark--who admits he's not partial to equations

On 2/18/2010 1:18 AM, Tord wrote:
> In conclusion, it is evident that the jet streams have moved elsewhere
> than their usual routes this winter, resulting in the Vancouver Winter
> Olympics taking place on man-made, or man-transported, snow.
>
> The world is out of synch, I think!
>
> All the best,
>
> Tord
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From: Chuck Holst <cholst_at_bitstream.net>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Where did that global warming go, or when will the winter end?
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2010 16:52:55 -0600
Here's what Professor Jones actually said. Note that what he means by
"significant" is not what most of us mean by the word. To minimize "noise"
in climate data from volcanic eruptions, periodic events such as El Nino and
such, climatologists prefer to look for trends over 30-year periods rather
than the 15 in the question. Paddlewisers who understand statistics can
probably explain this better. For the complete interview, go to 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm.

"B - Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no
statistically-significant global warming"

"Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to
2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the
95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the
significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms
is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter
periods."

Chuck Holst 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Perhaps global warming got lost in the shuffle of papers on Professor 
Phil Jones desk at GW Central! Apparently he has trouble keeping track 
of his data and such!

*http://tinyurl.com/yb2loyt*

He does answer Tord's question somewhat by stating there has been no 
statistically significant warming for 15 years--don't know if he went on 
to explain how that fits into the GW climate models with the CO2 still 
rising.
I was interested to read he's not so keen on totally dismissing the 
Medievel Warming Period as an indicator that any current warming may 
just be part of a normal earth cycle.
As he seems to have lost some of the crucial data, perhaps he won't be 
helping to straighten things out.

Mark--who admits he's not partial to equations


 

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