Re: [Paddlewise] Kayaker on Potomac presumed dead

On Sun, Aug 01, 2010 at 01:05:22PM -0700, Craig Jungers wrote:
> It seems to me that instead of simply debating gear versus skills we should
> identify and quantify the really dangerous aspects of kayaking and address
> those from the standpoint of a new or inexperienced paddler. One who
> probably has neither the skills nor the gear.

Much of this work has already been done, at least in the context of
river paddling, by Charlie Walbridge -- who has compiled more accident
reports than anybody else over the past several decades, published
them, and analyzed them.  (Charlie has been the safety chair of 
the AWA and the ACA before that approximately forever.  He's the
co-author of one of the two principle works in the field.  And so on.)

When I was doing my rescue instructor update with him, he mentioned
to those of us in the class that in roughly half the myriad fatal
accidents he's catalogued, the determining factor in whether or not
someone survived was "wearing a PFD".  To put it another way: about
half the people who died would likely have survived if they'd had one on.

The most prominent factors beyond that, if I'm accurately relaying
what he said, are (a) high water (b) cold water (and air) and
(c) inexperience relative to conditions.  (There's also a cluster
of accidents where none of these are a factor; those represent experts
pushing the limits.  While the proximate cause in those cases might
be some combination of factors, it might arguably be summarized as
"attempting to do things at the limits of equipment and human ability".)

	[ Side note: I haven't seen any mention in articles about this
	latest incident whether or not the paddler(s) were wearing their
	PFDs.  I can report, though, that it's very unlikely that cold
	or high water were factors.  The Potomac River is at its normal
	summer low flow, and is about the temperature of bathwater. ]

Let me go off on a tangent for a moment -- I'll show you how this
relates in a minute.  One of the very best things ever written about
IT security is here:

	The Six Dumbest Ideas in Computer Security
	http://www.ranum.com/security/computer_security/editorials/dumb/

Before you start to dismiss this as a rant -- which it is, but it's
a damn good one -- please pause to consider that the person who wrote
this is one of a handful of people responsible for the fact that you
know what the word "firewall" means in this context.  And I happen to
think he's dead-on accurate in this piece, based on my own many
decades of experience (which include making all those mistakes).

Anyway, one of the dumb ideas he points out is "Educating Users" (it's
number five).  He has this to say about it:

	On the surface of things, the idea of "Educating Users" seems
	less than dumb: education is always good.  On the other hand,
	like "Penetrate and Patch" if it was going to work, *it would have
	worked by now.*

I'll argue that this line of thinking may apply to paddlesport safety
as well.  Numerous organizational entities and innumerable individuals
have taken this approach for decades, yet we STILL find people repeatedly
making the same well-known rudimentary mistakes on a regular basis.
And of course some of them end up dead as a result.

Am I saying that educational efforts should cease?  No.

Am I saying that I have a better idea?  No.

What I am saying is that the question of whether or not education is
*ever* going to work should be on the table for discussion.  Because
I think that while there is some evidence that it works, there's also
some evidence that it doesn't.

I'll argue that education works with people who consider themselves
paddlers.  They seek out training, they work on their skills, they
buy equipment, they join clubs, they take lessons, and so on.  Education
works with them because they recognize that they need it; everything
else follows from that.

I'll also argue that education does not work with people who don't
consider themselves paddlers.  They have no concept of the risks,
no clue about skills, no idea about equipment, and so on.  They're
not listening.  And *they're not going to listen* because they haven't
got the slightest idea that someone is telling them something that
they need to hear.

My conclusion is that education is entirely worthwhile with the
former, but almost entirely wasted effort on the latter.  We need
something else.  Or...we can just accept the status quo and stop
worrying about it.

---Rsk
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