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From: <rebyl_kayak_at_energysustained.com>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Re: Longitude and astronomy
Date: Sun, 1 Aug 2010 09:39:20 +0000
Craig wrote: -
.....Thinking this over, the ancient Pacific navigators could have used very 
much the same system using a sand-clock calibrated for 24 hours. Accuracy 
would not have been so great but then they would at least have had some 
measure of local time.....

Bill Covert wrote: -
......Creamer navigated without the use of compass, sextant or electronic instruments! He eschewed even a wristwatch, but took an hourglass for changes of watch!......


G"day,

The sand clock idea would work, after all they were used by European navies for navigation with log and line thrown overboard, and the Pacific navigators were great traders so they might have been able to buy them in exchanges with the S.E. Asian mainland. A water clock, dripping water into calibrated cups is another possibility. Or perhaps placing a rod that had been marked off into divisions, at the bow and an observer with his back against the mast or some other fixed location where he could locate and steady his head, to use the time it took for stars rising over the horizon to pass each division as a time reference - that would make a great clock!

Looking forward to finding the articles recommended by Rich and see if they provide the background.

All the best, PeterO
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From: Martin, Jack <martin.jack_at_solute.us>
subject: [Paddlewise] Kayaker on Potomac presumed dead
Date: Sun, 1 Aug 2010 13:47:11 +0000
Typical of a story like this, there are far more unknowns than knowns, but a Maryland man is presumed dead after falling from a kayak rented on the Virginia side of the Potomac yesterday.  Some information at http://www.wtop.com/?nid=722&sid=2016321.  Reading between the sound bites and the press reports, a Prince George man, 46, and his nephew, 19, rented (probably) sit-on-tops from an agency on a quiet cove, just south of the Woodrow Wilson Bridge (where the Washington beltway crosses the Potomac).  For unstated or unknown reasons, they both fell into the water; the nephew survived -- again, sketchy reports on this -- but the uncle remains missing and, as of this morning, is presumed dead.

Early information indicates that the rental agency provided PFDs of some sort with the rentals, but indefinite information on whether the two men were using them.  Also some indication that the older man could not swim.

Anything else at this point in time would be total speculation.  It does appear likely that these two men were not regular or experienced kayakers.  Hopefully, there will be more facts forthcoming -- and, hopefully, before the news story loses its potential to influence the public re basic safety issues.

Joq
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From: Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Kayaker on Potomac presumed dead
Date: Sun, 1 Aug 2010 15:40:47 -0400
On Sun, Aug 01, 2010 at 01:47:11PM +0000, Martin, Jack wrote:
> Typical of a story like this, there are far more unknowns than knowns,
> but a Maryland man is presumed dead after falling from a kayak rented
> on the Virginia side of the Potomac yesterday.

The missing man's body was recovered around noon EST today.

---Rsk
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From: Craig Jungers <crjungers_at_gmail.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Kayaker on Potomac presumed dead
Date: Sun, 1 Aug 2010 13:05:22 -0700
On Sun, Aug 1, 2010 at 12:40 PM, Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net> wrote:

> On Sun, Aug 01, 2010 at 01:47:11PM +0000, Martin, Jack wrote:
> > Typical of a story like this, there are far more unknowns than knowns,
> > but a Maryland man is presumed dead after falling from a kayak rented
> > on the Virginia side of the Potomac yesterday.
>
> The missing man's body was recovered around noon EST today.
>

People fall over dead walking down the sidewalk... they die in bed asleep.
It shouldn't be surprising that now and then someone topples over dead in a
kayak. I hope he was wearing his PFD but, other than that, I'm not that
concerned about it. The ones that really get to me are the ones like the two
teens who died on a 1-mile paddle last spring. The preventable deaths.

Kayaking is, let's face it, not like walking around your neighborhood but
there are factors - like the combination of cold water and warm air
temperatures - that make it especially dangerous.

It seems to me that instead of simply debating gear versus skills we should
identify and quantify the really dangerous aspects of kayaking and address
those from the standpoint of a new or inexperienced paddler. One who
probably has neither the skills nor the gear.

My vote goes for concentrating on an educational program that puts the focus
on these issues:

1. Cold water and warm air;
2. The approach of inclement weather;
3. The difficulty of re-entering a kayak from the water;
4. How currents and winds interact at certain places (like river bars,
narrows, etc.);

Seems to me that if everyone paid attention to those 4 factors we'd lose a
lot fewer kayakers. How is the best way to get these across to, say, people
who would be renting a kayak or someone paddling an area they are unfamiliar
with?

Craig Jungers
Moses Lake, WA
www.nwkayaking.net
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From: Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Kayaker on Potomac presumed dead
Date: Mon, 2 Aug 2010 17:46:30 -0400
On Sun, Aug 01, 2010 at 01:05:22PM -0700, Craig Jungers wrote:
> It seems to me that instead of simply debating gear versus skills we should
> identify and quantify the really dangerous aspects of kayaking and address
> those from the standpoint of a new or inexperienced paddler. One who
> probably has neither the skills nor the gear.

Much of this work has already been done, at least in the context of
river paddling, by Charlie Walbridge -- who has compiled more accident
reports than anybody else over the past several decades, published
them, and analyzed them.  (Charlie has been the safety chair of 
the AWA and the ACA before that approximately forever.  He's the
co-author of one of the two principle works in the field.  And so on.)

When I was doing my rescue instructor update with him, he mentioned
to those of us in the class that in roughly half the myriad fatal
accidents he's catalogued, the determining factor in whether or not
someone survived was "wearing a PFD".  To put it another way: about
half the people who died would likely have survived if they'd had one on.

The most prominent factors beyond that, if I'm accurately relaying
what he said, are (a) high water (b) cold water (and air) and
(c) inexperience relative to conditions.  (There's also a cluster
of accidents where none of these are a factor; those represent experts
pushing the limits.  While the proximate cause in those cases might
be some combination of factors, it might arguably be summarized as
"attempting to do things at the limits of equipment and human ability".)

	[ Side note: I haven't seen any mention in articles about this
	latest incident whether or not the paddler(s) were wearing their
	PFDs.  I can report, though, that it's very unlikely that cold
	or high water were factors.  The Potomac River is at its normal
	summer low flow, and is about the temperature of bathwater. ]

Let me go off on a tangent for a moment -- I'll show you how this
relates in a minute.  One of the very best things ever written about
IT security is here:

	The Six Dumbest Ideas in Computer Security
	http://www.ranum.com/security/computer_security/editorials/dumb/

Before you start to dismiss this as a rant -- which it is, but it's
a damn good one -- please pause to consider that the person who wrote
this is one of a handful of people responsible for the fact that you
know what the word "firewall" means in this context.  And I happen to
think he's dead-on accurate in this piece, based on my own many
decades of experience (which include making all those mistakes).

Anyway, one of the dumb ideas he points out is "Educating Users" (it's
number five).  He has this to say about it:

	On the surface of things, the idea of "Educating Users" seems
	less than dumb: education is always good.  On the other hand,
	like "Penetrate and Patch" if it was going to work, *it would have
	worked by now.*

I'll argue that this line of thinking may apply to paddlesport safety
as well.  Numerous organizational entities and innumerable individuals
have taken this approach for decades, yet we STILL find people repeatedly
making the same well-known rudimentary mistakes on a regular basis.
And of course some of them end up dead as a result.

Am I saying that educational efforts should cease?  No.

Am I saying that I have a better idea?  No.

What I am saying is that the question of whether or not education is
*ever* going to work should be on the table for discussion.  Because
I think that while there is some evidence that it works, there's also
some evidence that it doesn't.

I'll argue that education works with people who consider themselves
paddlers.  They seek out training, they work on their skills, they
buy equipment, they join clubs, they take lessons, and so on.  Education
works with them because they recognize that they need it; everything
else follows from that.

I'll also argue that education does not work with people who don't
consider themselves paddlers.  They have no concept of the risks,
no clue about skills, no idea about equipment, and so on.  They're
not listening.  And *they're not going to listen* because they haven't
got the slightest idea that someone is telling them something that
they need to hear.

My conclusion is that education is entirely worthwhile with the
former, but almost entirely wasted effort on the latter.  We need
something else.  Or...we can just accept the status quo and stop
worrying about it.

---Rsk
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From: Craig Jungers <crjungers_at_gmail.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Kayaker on Potomac presumed dead
Date: Tue, 3 Aug 2010 08:33:42 -0700
On Mon, Aug 2, 2010 at 2:46 PM, Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net> wrote:

>
>
> My conclusion is that education is entirely worthwhile with the
> former, but almost entirely wasted effort on the latter.  We need
> something else.  Or...we can just accept the status quo and stop
> worrying about it.
>

It's certainly true that, for a certain percentage of people (almost all of
whom are male), education is a complete waste of time. In fact, for a small
but significant minority of males - especially those who are accompanied by
an attractive female - even rescue attempts can be a waste of time.

I can tell you that educating children is also (mostly) a waste of time but
we continue to plunge ahead willy-nilly with the results seemingly getting
worse every year.

Maybe we should require a forehead tattoo on everyone who is un-educable.
The problem with that is that we've all been un-educable at some point or
another in our lives. And tattoos are, I understand, difficult to remove.

One thing I've noticed is that the free children's PFDs that you now find at
so many boat launches seems to be successful. People understand the risks to
their children. They just don't think those same risks apply to them. But 50
years ago virtually no one bothered to put a "life jacket" on their kids (or
even carry them in a boat since it wasn't required by law back then). And
every kid I watch go by here in a boat has a PFD on. So at least some
education works.

Amazingly enough my (entirely unscientific) study of jet ski operators (who
outnumber boat operators on my lake by about 4 to 1) reveals that virtually
100% of them wear PFDs (versus zero% for boat operators). This result would
have been counter-intuitive. It's even more surprising because there is
essentially zero enforcement on my lake.

So... what has the jet ski community managed to do that the kayak community
hasn't? Education or just fear?


Craig Jungers
Moses Lake, WA
www.nwkayaking.net
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From: Martin, Jack <martin.jack_at_solute.us>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Kayaker on Potomac presumed dead
Date: Tue, 3 Aug 2010 16:39:49 +0000
Craig Jungers makes a couple of important points: 

"One thing I've noticed is that the free children's PFDs that you now find at so many boat launches seems to be successful. People understand the risks to their children. They just don't think those same risks apply to them."  

Further, he states, "Amazingly enough my (entirely unscientific) study of jet ski operators (who outnumber boat operators on my lake by about 4 to 1) reveals that virtually 100% of them wear PFDs (versus zero% for boat operators). This result would have been counter-intuitive."

__________

It may have something to do with simple acceptance of rule and precedence.  (I remember standing on the transmission hump in the backseat footwell of our 1939 Buick on five hour drives from Larchmont, New York to Boston, Massachusetts, with my arms and chin just over the center seat watching traffic and the scenes that paraded by -- well before Interstates and even some parkways.  If there had been seatbelts in cars then, I guess I would have worn one, but it hadn't really been considered.  In 1929, when air travel across the English Channel became possible, my father didn't get a seat on one trip, but did make the flight holding on to one of the subway-style leather straps slung from an overhead center beam of the cabin for the convenience of overflow passengers.)  So there are rules -- little kids sit in the back belted into $400 car seats that change as the child grows, and adults (generally) wear their seatbelts -- because there's a precedence for doing it, as well as the practice's compliance with a law.  It's okay to be safe since everyone pretty much accepts it as a precedent -- and maybe as a law.

My guess re the counter-intuitive nature of PWC operators' acceptance of PFDs is that, right from the start, the ads showed operators and riders wearing fashion-statement PFDs.  There may have been a law, but, more importantly, there was an acceptance of these devices from the get-go; there was a precedence for PFDs, and, therefore, people wore them.  It was OKAY to wear them, and it became the fashion.

Dunno -- only guessing here, but it's an interesting observation that Craig makes.  I look out on my creek and see a few boaters -- usually individual sport fishermen -- wearing PFDs, but the watermen don't.  Ever.  Not even when they're breaking the ice to clear a channel.  There might be a PFD stuffed under the toolkit somewhere, but maybe not.  It's not okay for watermen to show that kind of concern -- and it's not an accepted practice to wear PFDs.  

My other guess is that it's a visual thing, in the end.  For example, I'm guessing wildly here, but look at the picture at http://lh5.ggpht.com/lmfYUZrvqWZbFrKrOnTetbgBvb8SpKlSESFLlPDf5FUYxcVmkavQ7QGmMva9dxjU6n1eSBLD287I2Ac4P3ZHk0Fgc6_CST7iKx2pt9Iw-T5FsVgsnasaHqbT
It's from the Web site of the operator of the kayak rental agency on the Potomac that the unfortunate Mr. Huggins used last weekend during his "accident".  Now, I see a bunch of kids and young adults happily awaiting a kayak outing, all tucked into their rec kayaks and SOTs, all wearing their PFDs.  But, wait -- the guy in the back, waving -- couldn't be the group leader, could he?  He has an unusual PFD on that looks just like a 35mm camera!  (How do they make these things?  Remarkable!) There's nothing on the site that tells us more, but I wonder how that gent made the other adults feel about being out on a trip sitting in the back seats of their kayaks with their belts on.

Joq
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From: Dave Kruger <kdruger_at_pacifier.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Kayaker on Potomac presumed dead
Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2010 10:11:00 -0700
Longtime teacher here with three comments:

Rich is spot on:  nothing sticks unless the learner is motivated to acquire 
the knowledge/skill/technique and renews his/her learning regularly. 
Teachers who assess retention a year (or two) after instruction will know 
this.  Would any of us want a surgeon operating on us who had not kept his 
skills and knowledge up?  Could be a matter of life and death, just like a PFD.

Re:  more PFD's on PWC's:  many states have aggressively worked on this 
through various means, as have manufacturers and rental agencies.  The 
paddling community has done piddly-ass nothing in comparison.

Re:  PFD's for kids:  many states have free PFD's at the ramp.  In Oregon 
this has been very successful, through the cooperation and assistance of 
the Power Squadron, the USCG, and PFD manufacturers.  The latter have 
contributed many of the the PFD's I see around here.  See last sentence in 
previous paragraph.

And one suggestion:  make yourself personally available as a resource to 
local schools, scouting organizations, kids camps, etc., as a role model to 
show kids what behavior and skills make for safe paddling.  I've been 
well-received at the local Power Squadron for my experience as a paddler. 
They honestly want to reduce drowning deaths.  Ditto USCG Auxiliary.

-- 
Dave Kruger
Astoria, OR
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