Craig, As we all know, there's a lot that comes into play for the active sea kayaker. I know a few beginners who I feel are at risk given their lack of knowledge regarding tides, currents, etc. They don't have great equipment either (like proper flotation, etc.). That's a concern. At least if they have one of those aspects dialled in, I'd be less worried. Then there's the intermediate paddlers I know. The ones who combine good judgement with good equipment and have taken the time to educate themselves and seek knowledgeable companions - they are pretty safe off, even safer than more experienced paddlers perhaps if the type less prone to seeking solo "adventures". SK Mag has had a number of stories recently, including the last issue, detailing highly experienced paddlers getting into deep trouble. Yeah, some of your comments are cogent Craig on this aspect as I've read what you write closely over the years, here and elsewhere - including your analogies with professional mariners and flying. It does seem there's a familiarity that negates safety. It can be on a number of fronts, including nav, equipment, conditions, self-evaluation, etc. Given my own mature experienced-criteria, I know I have to pay more vigilance (pay more attention to paying more attention), not less these last few years. Yes, I have more functional backups, better gear, well-honed proficiencies, have had plenty of "won't do that again" experiences that should lend caution) and know exactly what me, my kayak and gear can and cannot handle - yet when I ignore red flags, things happen, usually bad things. This can and is true for many I'm sure. Fortunately, we are part of a maritime community with a presence on the water as well as watchful eyes sometimes on the shoreline, not to mention resources available depending on location and communication apparatus whereby rescue is close at hand. Andrew, one of the rescue participants in the Storm Island rescue, knew he should not have done the crossing, knew we should have turned back when we did proceed despite the hesitancy once there was subsequent equipment breakage. One's gut can tell all. I'd like to know if Mr. Moses ignored guttural emanations prior to getting in over his head. I took one of the young employees home last night after Rona. He lives on a mountain and the snow was deep. I have an all wheel drive Safari van, new M&S BFG all-terrains, so up we flew on virgin snow roads. I'm an experienced snow driver with good equipment. Many out last night were having issues, bad drivers and summer tires and various combinations of the same, yet I was overly optimistic about my skills and equipment, so drove fast around everyone feeling superior. If I had a close call, I didn't know it, but maybe a few moments after I cleared a curve on a hill someone else crossed the center line. I'll never know. At my speed in the snow, it could have been tragic (my co-worker was whimpering a few times). The more experienced drivers out there, one's with good equipment, driving in a cautious manner, were the ones perhaps the safest. Why? They allowed healthy margins. Anyway, for me and kayaking, it's all about the flags. I fell off a ladder today in my shop. My head bounced off the concrete floor. I have multiple injuries. I also fractured my left wrist. Yvonne's in remission at the moment so I can steal her Morphine tonight and still type here with my right wrist. But I ignored red flags in the shop this week doing renos; I'd slipped a few times off the ladder already, been asked by my father in law a few times (who owns the shop) to lean the ladder on the attic opening rather than stand on the lightweight top rung, etc., etc., all week. Okay, I went home, got my daughter to help, then did one more unsafe ladder climb just before I was going to set it up safer - and bang. Now I'm in a world of hurt, hopefully will not suffer subsequent arthritis, and have gotten myself behind schedule more than imaginable and adding to family complexities. I'm lucky to get off so lightly though. Red flags, eh? When I was an intermediate paddler, I took more notice of red flags. Actually I notice them more acutely now, but correspondingly, complacently, ignore remedial action until I'm hit in the head - or my head hits a hard place... So what makes a safe paddler? A lot comes into play. Doug (who's groaning, moaning, bemoaning, AND (?) atoning) One of your quotes: "Airplane accident statistics suggest that there is a level of experience where pilots are more at risk than even when they are complete novices. Somewhere around 100 hours of flying time there seems to be a period where they become more complacent with their skills. It would not surprise me at all to learn that there is a similar problem with kayak paddlers. A point at which the paddler believes he/she has encountered enough problems to be comfortable surmounting almost anything.. This is where I think having a good kayak club or group can be valuable. Guys like Mark and Duane and their CKF pals always seem to be challenging each other in playful ways which are entertaining but which also strengthen their skills." *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). 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