Sam and Ann Isaacs wrote: --snip-- > In this type of scenario, you don't really know how close you might > have > come to guessing wrong....would launching still have resulted in an > experience and outcome within yours or the group's comfort zone, or > would > it have resulted in a fatality or near-fatality (and I'll beg the > question > of what is a near-fatality!). > > But it seems to me that it requires certain skills to be able to reach > a > decison that says, in spite of the planning and commitment to this > specific > trip, (and any Conquer drive I might have to "JUST DO IT"), "I will > not > launch because....." > > Borrowing another cliche....learning when and how to "JUST SAY NO" may > be > just as essential a skill as paddling techniques and equipment. > > So, do you have stories of pre-event decison making that we can learn > from...even if it less dramatic? --snip of a couple of excellent examples of saying no-- Example of avoided problems? Lots and lots. They can be identified in two ways: first, if you pull out but someone else of similar ability and experience continues on; and second, if you can break down the objective risks, the relative skills of the paddlers, and then quantify the probability of their success. I am partial to this latter approach because it helps me decide how much risk I am willing to take. Probably one of the worst examples of pulling out while others continued in which I have been personally involved took place on the Petawawa River approximately twenty-five years ago. The river was in spate, but most of my gang still chose to run most of the rapids, even though they were being spattered. At the bottom of the Natch, a normally simple V, several of us took out rather than running. Others of our group proceeded and ran into trouble, including swims that caused hypothermia problems. The next group through that day had the same difficulties, and one person died. The correct decision given the conditions, our skills, and our equipment (god awful tubs for canoes and no wet suits) was to take out. It was proven by those who did not take out. You can read about it in Bill Mason's "Path of the Paddle" in his section on landing in a current. A less tragic example is Dave X's shoulder dislocation on the Kipawa's Elbow. Dave is technically competent in class IV, but for some reason he zombies every time on this rapid. He has attempted running it many times. More often than not, he has swam. When he has swam, more often than not he has been banged up. Therefore, given his past performance, it was probable that he would get hurt. He ignored the odds, attempted the run, and dislocated his shoulder. On a slightly sadistic level, when I teach wild water I have my students identify the various problems in the the rapid, identify the skills needed to mitigate these problems, evaluate the skills of each member in the group, and decide who has what chance of making the run successfully. Eventually they get pretty good at assigning probabilities. It's sort of fun to watch them make bets for and against each other. On a more serious level, it helps them develop faith in their analyses, for they see what happens if they do not make good decisions. The trick as an instructor is to encourage correct analyses and appropriate actions based on these analyses, rather than promote challenging the river. I reward my students if they act upon their analyses. I don't really care how quickly they progress in learning how to run rapids, but I do care that they only act according to their analyses. If they analyse a run and make it, or if the analyse a run and blow it, or if they analyse a run and portage it, I reward them equally. If they want to make a run, or if they wish to portage a run, they must go through their analysis with me and the rest of the group. The focus is on who can make the most reliable analysis, rather than who can run the most challenging water. The successful student is one who is able to show how he or she came to a decision, and then over time becomes confident in acting upon the decision -- what the decision was is not relevant. Richard Culpeper www.geocities.com/~culpeper *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************Received on Sat Feb 28 1998 - 13:18:49 PST
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