Re: [Paddlewise] Accuracy of Canadian Government weather reports

Ah, marine weather forecasts. There are days when I think the
prognostications of Environment Canada are done with chicken bones, or
something like that. At least, when I'm on a trip with friends and suggest
we pay attention to the forecasted gale, I get called a little chicken
sh#_at_%. This yellow streak is do to the fact that I spend a lot of time on
the water kayaking, and have actually experienced correct forecasts, once
in a while, believe it or not. However, as my preeminent friends have found
out, most of the time the local conditions are no where near as severe as
was stated. This presents a bit of a problem during in-situ trip planning. 

Matt and I have had a bit of a discussion on this subject concerning that
rescue I had off the Storm Islands last April with my other two buds. We
had incorrect forecasts every day for ten days coming down from Bella Bella
to Port Hardy. There were days when we would be told to expect NW winds.
Half way into a long crossing, we would get SE winds (in our faces, of
course), a full 180 degrees to predicted directions. So not only are wind
strengths out, so are directions at times. We also heard sunny skys, and
got nailed by snow squalls. Eventually we just gave up, and on the day of
the ill fated crossing ignored the forecast (Matt will tell the whole
story, hopefully about Feb 2000 in Sea Kayaker Magazine).   

After 25 years of canoe and kayak paddling, I'm finally learning that a
forecast is just that, a forecast - not a "fact-cast". I also know from
talking to fishermen, storm bound in places like Winter Harbor, that while
it may appear relatively calm along coastal waters, offshore, it may be a
very different matter.(This was mentioned in a recent post by someone).
Forecasters are dedicated to providing information to the men and women who
ply these offshore waters for a living, not pleasure boaters who don't have
to be on the water closer to land. 

I also find that waters more inland, where more pleasure boaters frequent,
do get a detailed, through forecast. Unfortunately, these waterways, such
as the the Georgia Basin and Puget Sound area, are subject to local
variations that defy complete, accurate forecasting. I've come to learn
that forecasts are like a large net, catching most of the "fish" as it
sweeps along, but, lots of little "fish" get through the small "holes" in
the net.

After my return to civilization after thr Storm Island rescue, I phoned
Environment Canada on the 1-900 line for some "personal service".
Specifically, I went over my log book day by day, including the day of the
final crossing, comparing Environment Canada's forecasts with what we
actually experienced. The French canadian fellow answering the phone was
non-pulsed, and suggested I heard the forecasts wrong, or misunderstood
them. He said there are six forecasters who do the central/north coast, and
that they take pride in the accuracy of their work. To be fair, the cold
fronts moving through were rapid, and Fitz Hugh Sound subject to variation
with mountain ranges so close. The day we left Port Hardy, where we filled
out a float plan with the Coast Guard at the strart of the trip, we had
asked them for a three day forecast. They said they were lucky if EC got
the next 6 hours right. That was straight from the horse's mouth (guess I
was the horse's ars).

Anyway, I've also experience the opposite of predicting to great a wind
strength, as I'm sure many of you have too. Just today, they said winds in
Juan De Fuca to 20 knots. The Coast Guard finally over-broadcasted the
regular EC recording, indicating 35 knot winds were occurring. On a larger
scale, we have had a few marine "bombs" drop on us, where hurricane force
winds rapidly developed from a small craft warning. I've been caught in a
few of those situations over the year's (the more time you spend on the
water, the greater the chance of "ship happening"), and it is worse than
being a victim of over-predicting, where you sat on the beach
unnecessarily. So, I guess I'd rather go with the trend of EC
over-predicting. It does make trip planning a bit of a challenge, and,
after my Storm Island experience, I'll just have to stay yellow -- at least
I match the color of my kayak's gelcoat :)

For further reading for those interested in Vancouver Island and the Gulf
Islands and adjacent areas, I suggest "Marine Weather Hazards Manual - a
guide to local forecasts and conditions" by EC, and the newly published
"The Wind Came All Ways - A quest to understand the winds, waves and
weather in the Georgia Basin" by Owen S. Lange and EC.

BC'in Ya
Doug Lloyd
 
>Please tell us about your experiences with the Canadian weather forecasts.
>Many of us have had the feeling they exaggerate wind speed forecasts
>intentionally.
>Matt Broze

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