"we have had a few marine "bombs" drop on us, where hurricane force winds rapidly developed from a small craft warning. I've been caught in a few of those situations over the year's (the more time you spend on the water, the greater the chance of "ship happening"), and it is worse than being a victim of over-predicting, where you sat on the beach unnecessarily." said Doug Once I was on Puget sound on a summer day when the morning marine forecast had been for 10-15 knots. In the late afternoon the north wind died away to a flat calm. Then a little south breeze came up. In less than an hour it was blowing a solid 40 knots (as measured downwind in Everett WA). This very strong wind blew for hours, until long after dark. The wind was against the tide and very steep waves built up much faster than they do on the fetch/wind speed graphs that you find in books. Ever since then I always carry more in the way of safety gear (and especially warm clothes) than I previously thought necessary in summertime. Even if you only go out when the weather report is nice you will eventually be surprised. Even if you can avoid rolling in 4 to 6 foot breaking seas, you will be soaked through in no time in 40 knot winds. I think that the fact that predicted wind speeds often seem high is partly due to the ability of recording anemometers to record the highest gusts. On a given day it may only blow 20 knots in ocaisional gusts. These gusts might be too brief to influence the sea state, but they will be recorded as the high end for the days wind range. Nick Lyle *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Reinforcement: Once when I was young and foolish (around 34 or so) I just had to put my 12 ft sailboat (100 sq ft sail, sloop rigged) on a lake in Feb in Ohio. It was a warm day and the ice had melted. The local weather forcast said 15-20 knot winds. I said, I can handle that and set forth on a small lake. I was wearing PFD and sweat shirt and levis. First time I ever saw a rooster tail from a sail boat. I was in broad reach and crossed a 1/2 mile lake in no time it seemed. Now to turn, tried a tack and picked up about 100 gal of water which made the boat very unstable and I was in the lake. Swam back (water seemed very cold) and though I was in good shape from daily running, I was exhausted by the time I reached shore. No one else on the lake. Turned out the real wind was 25 knots with gusts to 40. I have been very cautious ever since. I think I was in more trouble than I knew. =^..^= --Mel-- Mel Lammers mslammers_at_earthlink.net ----- Original Message ----- From: Whitesavage & Lyle <nickjean_at_speakeasy.org> To: paddlewise <paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net> Sent: Tuesday, August 31, 1999 3:52 AM Subject: [Paddlewise] Weather or not > "we have had a few marine "bombs" drop on us, where hurricane force > winds rapidly developed from a small craft warning. I've been caught in > a > few of those situations over the year's (the more time you spend on the > water, the greater the chance of "ship happening"), and it is worse than > > being a victim of over-predicting, where you sat on the beach > unnecessarily." said Doug > > Once I was on Puget sound on a summer day when the morning marine > forecast had been for 10-15 knots. In the late afternoon the north wind > died away to a flat calm. Then a little south breeze came up. In less > than an hour it was blowing a solid 40 knots (as measured downwind in > Everett WA). This very strong wind blew for hours, until long after > dark. The wind was against the tide and very steep waves built up much > faster than they do on the fetch/wind speed graphs that you find in > books. > > Ever since then I always carry more in the way of safety gear (and > especially warm clothes) than I previously thought necessary in > summertime. Even if you only go out when the weather report is nice you > will eventually be surprised. Even if you can avoid rolling in 4 to 6 > foot breaking seas, you will be soaked through in no time in 40 knot > winds. > > I think that the fact that predicted wind speeds often seem high is > partly due to the ability of recording anemometers to record the highest > gusts. On a given day it may only blow 20 knots in ocaisional gusts. > These gusts might be too brief to influence the sea state, but they will > be recorded as the high end for the days wind range. > > Nick Lyle > > *************************************************************************** > PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List > Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net > Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net > Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ > *************************************************************************** > *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
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