[Paddlewise] FW: Risk - was How and when

-----Original Message-----
From: Bob Apter [mailto:bapter_at_nwlink.com] 
Sent: Thursday, November 04, 1999 10:03 AM
To: 735769; paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net
Subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk - was How and when

Actually, there has been a significant decline in the total number of
deaths
from motor vehicle crashes in the US over the last 20 years or so, and a
much greater decline in the number of deaths per mile travelled.
Granted
other factors may be involved, but it does appear that safety
improvements
in autos and roads have made a difference.

***********************************************************

This reminds me of a conversation I had with a park ranger at the
Apostle Islands National Lakeshore a couple of years ago. I had heard
that another ranger thought the area was overdue for a sea kayaking
death. The reply of the ranger I talked to was that it was statistical
nonsense, because the various sea kayaking incidents in the area
requiring rescue had no common contributing factors. She added that
whereas the numbers of deaths and SARs at Denali had increased
proprtionately to the increase in in the number of climbers, there had
been no similar increase in sea kayaking incidents in the Apostles
despite the mushrooming popularity of the sport. 

It may be that as new kayakers enter the sport, the older ones acquire
more experience, knowledge, and skills, thus keeping the pool of people
likely to require assistance relatively constant. If John Winters'
theory of risk homeostasis applied to sea kayaking, one would think that
as each kayaker's level of risk stabilized, the number of incidents
would increase in linear proportion to the population of sea kayakers.
In the Apostles, at least, it does not appear to be true.

Considering the large number of novice sea kayakers going out in the
Apostles after only a few hours of instruction, I am amazed that there
have not been any deaths in the area. Either the sport is not as
inherently dangerous as we think (at least, not in a non-tidal area such
as Lake Superior), or the amount of skill and instruction required to
sharply reduce deaths is much lower than often appears. 

Chuck Holst
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