Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis

>John Winters wrote:
<snip> To provide some idea of how I 
>approach this kind of thing visit my non-commercial web page
>http://home.ican.net/~735769/safety.htm  that provides a way 
>of estimating the danger of a given paddling situation. I hope 
>you find it helpful. I also would appreciate your comments.

Then Larry replied:
>>John's notion that *Rating Guide for Sea Kayaking Conditions*
>>can be formulated as*Rating = Sum of risk values for each condition*
>>seems well thought out and useful to me. However i propose that
>>injection of kaos into the computation might make it
>>more likely to include the uncertainty that we often encounter <snip>.

Doug Lloyd comments:
I have a love/hate relationship with attempts at rating sea kayak
conditions. I love looking at these rating guides because anyone who has
the gumption to even try and achieve such a complicated task deserves
respect. I know of no one who has attempted this task, who is *not* in tune
with reality. They all have a lot of experience, and genuinely are trying
to help people determine a safe level for paddling. I love reviewing these
rating attempts because they provoke thought and introspection.

Rick Davies published one in Wavelenght called "Go/No Go". I have a friend
who has a valuable, yet unpublished scale, declined by Sea Kayaker
Magazine. Canoe & Kayak Magazine have one out. The Sea Kayak Association of
BC have one on their web page. I tried making one for my club but gave up.
There are others. The Tsunami Rangers have one out now, that their
Commander has applied to a recent incident which I forwarded to SK Mag.
Eric uses his "scale" to review the risk factors in the latest SK Mag. I
had some input into the rating system. (The systems I look at are all sea
kayak related).      

Having said all that, I hate them. The elements that comprise an
individual's or group's decision to paddle are so variable, so internal, so
experiential, so...so intangible I just don't see how one can delineate it
on paper. You want kaos? There are so many variables at work at any one
given moment, at least on the open sea; so many changeable elements, and so
many considerations and choices depending on what level of exposure and
risk you feel like taking that particular day or hour.

Everything these days is classified, codified, searchableized, digitized,
theorized, etc, etc. The ocean, lake, and river paddling realms are some of
the last bastions of honest adventure and challenge left, that are
reasonably accessible to "the people" and impossible to control. Packaging
it all up into a tidy little "gift" for public consumption, especially when
rating systems don't really work, ain't cool with me as a reliable index -
only as a promt. Of course, most rating system inventors always caveated
their scale with a note about its usefulness in the "real world".

I'd be the first to say I'd like a BA or MA in Ocean Kayaking Riskology
where everything is systematically broken down and taught; heck, most of my
paddling friends in Victoria would give good money to pay my way. But I
wouldn't go in the end. I'd just keep reading books on risk management,
studying other's mistakes, evaluating my own, rubbing shoulders with better
paddlers and keeping an open mind to what they have to teach. And most of
all, keep paddling on the water, where mother nature's pedagogically
preeminent presence continues to train and instruct if one's spirit is at
peace, one's heart is humble, one's mind engaged, one's body in tune, and
one's target for risk is hitting the bullseye because experience is being
gained in appropriate degrees commensurate with your objectives.

John has made a great attempt. And as always, it is done with cerebral
intensity in his usual indubitable manner. If it is flawed, it is only
because by nature, all rating systems are imperfect. It is one of the
better ones around, however. What do I worry about right now? I wonder how
many PW'rs even bothered to look up John's site to engage an intelligent
dialog within themselves. I wonder how many didn't even look at this thread
initially. How many people take risk management seriously?

What are _my_ greatest allies for survivability, if that is the name of the
game? Not rating systems, that's for sure. Try, in order, common sense,
constant paddler's  awareness, knowledge/understanding of your skill level,
knowledge/understanding of your environment, the ability to think
three-dimensionally/proactively, *complete* self-reliance,
preparation/training, good gear and back-up gear, to name a few. 

Another big one - protocol*. On a big lake or ocean with significant winds
and waves, open Canadian canoes are at high risk. On a wild river, solo WW
canoe or river kayaker  shouldn't be out there. Proper team-river kayaking
in a group? People still die, but it seems more "acceptable". Big surf?
Shouldn't be out alone. Ocean/lake solo kayaking or in a small group in
challenging conditions? Guess we are still deciding what is publically
acceptable or within "community standards". Best if you are able to rescue
yourself and take care of yourself in the aftermath, for the conditions you
are in or could get caught in. (The above presupposes experienced paddlers
in each category mentioned for average-for-them conditions). Better yet,
avoid trouble in the first place. Now how do you do that? I guess rating
systems do have a place!

*Protocol - the recent incident near South Portland, Maine, with the
bellbouy clinging kayaker: Alone, no back-up gear, short kayak, outflow
current/inflow winds (I assume), to my way of thinking, is out of tune with
acceptable, normal paddling protocol.
 
Anyway, I could expand on my above "survivability" rules, if there is
interest. It would be *my* "rating system".

Circuitously yours,

Doug Lloyd          
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