Doug Lloyd and John Winters have written some provocative posts about risk and in the case of the latter, a well thought out webpage as well. I looked at the recent Sea Kayaker scale prepared by the Tsunami Ranger (and apparently helped a bit by Doug) and have seen others throughout the years. I agree with Doug that all of them are too complex and really can't work for each individual or even enough individuals to make them something to hold up as scales for determining "go, no go" decisions. I think this decision is in your guts. It goes beyond where you are on the skill/gear scale against the conditions scale. Most of us know deep inside when we are being stupid...the problem is listening to that inner voice. Most of have enough sense to resist peer pressure or to know when someone who is leading a particular excursion is not making the right decisions. Resorting to a scale numbs that internal voice. I am certain Doug, whose experience and skills tower over that of most of us, has looked out on a day on which he could easily deal with the conditions and made the decision to pack up and go back home or somewhere else. I think the main value in the scales such as that in Sea Kayaker is that they enumerate all or most of the factors to consider in terms of skill, gear and sea conditions. And this is of particular help for those starting out. Such enumeration instills in you, for your inner voice to listen to, things to consider subconsciously. For example, a beginner in his enthusiasm may not consider possible weather changes or winds possibly being stronger around the corner than at the launch site. So he learns to listen to the full day's weather forecast with an ear for any possible changes; and looks at a chart with a mind toward wind direction and how land features may shelter or expose him/her throughout the day. In this sense the scales should be looked at as darn good general checklists of factors to consider but not as a decision maker. You make the decision and put whatever weights you want on each point that your gut tells you to do on that particular day. Risk management is best served by careful route plotting. Risk varies by the particular stretch of water you are paddling and what winds and currents and other such conditions are doing at the particular hours you are tranversing the area. Almost invariably when paddlers run into trouble it is because of lack of attention and foresight regarding their route as it will be affected by weather and other variables on that day. By considering the route carefully, you can also pre-set for yourself some tests for deciding whether to continue or not. I can't count the number of times that I have set off to go from Point A to D carefully considering everything only to find that I wasn't feeling comfortable at around Point B and just turned around to cut a planned 4 hour paddle to a half hour. The retreat-to-paddle-another-day decision went basically this way. "Hmmm, things are happening a bit more chaotically than I thought they would be at this point when I was back home or at the launch site. Knowing what I know about the route ahead, conditions are only going to get worse. Why risk going on further? I want to _enjoy_ this life activity, not _endure_ it. I have nothing to prove. I can always paddle another day." There are no scales that can conduct that thought process for you. ralph diaz -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Ralph Diaz . . . Folding Kayaker newsletter PO Box 0754, New York, NY 10024 Tel: 212-724-5069; E-mail: rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com "Where's your sea kayak?"----"It's in the bag." ----------------------------------------------------------------------- *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************Received on Wed Nov 10 1999 - 06:28:57 PST
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