Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis

From: <rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com>
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 09:10:24 -0800
Doug Lloyd and John Winters have written some provocative posts about
risk and in the case of the latter, a well thought out webpage as well.

I looked at the recent Sea Kayaker scale prepared by the Tsunami Ranger
(and apparently helped a bit by Doug) and have seen others throughout
the years.  I agree with Doug that all of them are too complex and
really can't work for each individual or even enough individuals to make
them something to hold up as scales for determining "go, no go"
decisions.

I think this decision is in your guts.  It goes beyond where you are on
the skill/gear scale against the conditions scale.  Most of us know deep
inside when we are being stupid...the problem is listening to that inner
voice.  Most of have enough sense to resist peer pressure or to know
when someone who is leading a particular excursion is not making the
right decisions.  Resorting to a scale numbs that internal voice.

I am certain Doug, whose experience and skills tower over that of most
of us, has looked out on a day on which he could easily deal with the
conditions and made the decision to pack up and go back home or
somewhere else.

I think the main value in the scales such as that in Sea Kayaker is that
they enumerate all or most of the factors to consider in terms of skill,
gear and sea conditions.  And this is of particular help for those
starting out.  Such enumeration instills in you, for your inner voice to
listen to, things to consider subconsciously.  For example, a beginner
in his enthusiasm may not consider possible weather changes or winds
possibly being stronger around the corner than at the launch site.  So
he learns to listen to the full day's weather forecast with an ear for
any possible changes; and looks at a chart with a mind toward wind
direction and how land features may shelter or expose him/her throughout
the day.

In this sense the scales should be looked at as darn good general
checklists of factors to consider but not as a decision maker.  You make
the decision and put whatever weights you want on each point that your
gut tells you to do on that particular day.

Risk management is best served by careful route plotting.  Risk varies
by the particular stretch of water you are paddling and what winds and
currents and other such conditions are doing at the particular hours you
are tranversing the area.  Almost invariably when paddlers run into
trouble it is because of lack of attention and foresight regarding their
route as it will be affected by weather and other variables on that day.

By considering the route carefully, you can also pre-set for yourself
some tests for deciding whether to continue or not.  I can't count the
number of times that I have set off to go from Point A to D carefully
considering everything only to find that I wasn't feeling comfortable at
around Point B and just turned around to cut a planned 4 hour paddle to
a half hour.  The retreat-to-paddle-another-day decision went basically
this way.  "Hmmm, things are happening a bit more chaotically than I
thought they would be at this point when I was back home or at the
launch site.  Knowing what I know about the route ahead, conditions are
only going to get worse.  Why risk going on further?  I want to _enjoy_
this life activity, not _endure_ it.  I have nothing to prove. I can
always paddle another day."

There are no scales that can conduct that thought process for you.

ralph diaz
-- 
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Ralph Diaz . . . Folding Kayaker newsletter
PO Box 0754, New York, NY 10024
Tel: 212-724-5069; E-mail: rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com
"Where's your sea kayak?"----"It's in the bag."
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Received on Wed Nov 10 1999 - 06:28:57 PST

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