Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis

Larry wrote;

(SNIP)

>
> However i propose that injection of kaos into the computation might make
it
> more likely to include the uncertainty that we often encounter.
>
> risk value for kaos = standard deviation of all other *relevant* risk
> values.
> hence kaos risk increases when the relevant riks values are divergent...
>
> Uncertain World Rating = John's Rating + Kaos risk value.
> No change to the Rating Tables.

Great idea if I can figure out how to do it using my rotten math skills.
Does anyone out there remember the classic chaos type of formula? Is it  n =
n ^(1-n) or is it x --> x2 + c? Maybe neither one.

One problem. It may breed so much paranoia and uncertainty that no one will
ever paddle again. HMMM Maybe not a problem at all. :)

Doug Lloyd wrote a well thought out commentary on rating systems that I
confess to agreeing with even though I developed a rating system. In defense
of rating systems  I would say that one hopes they will force people with
limited backjgrounds to think first and act later. I have no doubt that some
damned fool will take a rating system, add it up and decide evertthing is
safe and then go drown. The consolation derives from the suspicion he would
have drowned anyway.

My hope was that people would read it, recognise the complexity of paddling
risk, and try to learn more. Hopefully they would learn enough to not need
the system.

One of the interesting aspects of systems came to light when I read Eric
Soare's system in Sea Kayaker. Eric's system increased the rating by one
point for every mile per hour increase in wind speed when the forces
involved increase geometrically (wind force, increases with the square of
velocity).  I wonder if most people don't perceive these factors in a linear
manner which results in under estimating the risk.

To give some idea of the complexity consider swim distance. eric uses 1
point for every 100 meters and yet 100 meters might as well be 1000 meters
if you can't swim. I mention this not as critcism of Eric's system but to
show just how difficult coming up with any kind of rating system and to show
(as Doug pointed out) their weaknesses. Sometimes when I look at mine I want
to chuck it but I keep tweaking it in hopes it will actually benefit some
one some day.

Cheers,

John Winters
Redwing Designs
Web site address, http://home.ican.net/~735769



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