Kevin Whilden wrote: >At 07:46 PM 8/8/00 -0800, Rev. Bob Carter wrote: >>For those of you planning to paddle in Prince Willian Sound here in Alaska, >>recently a polar bear was sighted near Whitter. This is hundreds and hundreds >>of miles south of their normal territory. >Sounds like an almost certain sign of global warming to me. I am going to >have add that one to my list of the dangers kayakers face from global >warming. Do you know of a URL that points to a news story on this event? Wouldn't the global warming encourage the polar bears to migrate further *north* (to be more in their "natural" climate) rather than further south? Evan *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced/forwarded outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
>Wouldn't the global warming encourage the polar bears to migrate further *north* >(to be more in their "natural" climate) rather than further south? They probably bought one of those compasses like I got at LL Bean. Poor slobs. Anyway, the subject of global warming is of great interest to me. I have been trying to learn more about it, but I find information hard to get. Lots of the sources seem to be "fringe" groups with too much rhetoric and not enough straight factual info. Anyone know how one might really learn about this subject? TIA. Mark *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced/forwarded outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
July's Atlantic Monthly had a pretty good article that focused on getting past the debate of "whether or not"and looked instead at "what to do about it." http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2000/07/sarewitz.htm Also some good links to other resources were listed... --allan *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced/forwarded outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
At 03:41 PM 8/9/00 +0000, SRI wrote: >Anyway, the subject of global warming is of great interest to me. I have >been trying to learn more about it, but I find information hard to get. >Lots of the sources seem to be "fringe" groups with too much rhetoric and >not enough straight factual info. Anyone know how one might really learn >about this subject? TIA. Mark, My website, Your Planet Earth, is designed to be an educational resource for issues revolving around sustainability. Climate change is probably the biggest problem global society will face in terms of sustainability. At least, all other problems will be made much worse as a result of climate change. YPE collects daily news stories on issues such as climate change, and has a glossary that attemts to explain a lot of the issues that revolve around climate change and give the "straight facts" without rhetoric and with as many references to scientific literature as possible. Go ahead and check it out... http://www.yourplanetearth.org Regarding Jackie's post that listed the summary of Crowley's recent paper in Science, there is a post about that on my website as well. http://www.yourplanetearth.org/article.pl?sid=00/07/14/1641242&mode=thread This paper was interesting for two reasons. One is that it used a less complex form of climate modeling that allowed the computer to simulate climate for 1000 years. The standard form of climate models (called General Circulation Models or GCMs) are too complex and would require too much computer time to simulate conditions on that time scale. Crowley's model effectively reproduced observed climate temperatures during that 1000 year run, which is quite impressive. This had not been done before. The second interesting thing about Crowley's paper is that because the model worked so well, he was able to test the difference between natural variability and man-made forcing (i.e. CO2 and other greenhouse gases). Natural variability is the term that describes all changes in temperature resulting from cycles in solar output, tidal cycles, and volcanic eruptions (to name a few). (Incidently, El Nino and La Nina are also natural variability on a 3-5 year timescale). Using his model, Crowley was able to show that natural variability accounts for all observed temperature changes until the latter half of the 20th century. At this point, the only way to model the observed temperatures is to add man-made greenhouse gas forcing to the model. It is interesting to see how their words dance around a little bit when making this claim. It tends to rile people up, but no reputable scientist argues this point anymore. Humans are causing global warming, and there is no way to dispute that now. The scary thing about it all is that CO2 has a lifetime in our atmosphere of 120 years. That means that whatever CO2 is there now will continue to warm the earth for our great-great-granchildren. So far, the current amount of anthropogenic CO2 has produced only about 20% of the total warming that it will eventually create. In other words, if we stopped emitting CO2 cold turkey, the Earth would still warm up another 4-5 degrees C from what is already there (in our best estimate). But we are doing anything but stopping CO2 emission. Instead, the pace of emission is rising exponentially. Is there a solution to all of this? You bet, there are lots of little solutions that hopefully will all add up to make a difference. And the cool thing (no pun intended) is that if took it seriously, all of the solutions would actually save us a lot more money than it would cost to implement them in the long run. But it will mean that fossil fuel companies would not be able to rake in their $billions by selling oil and coal, and it is going to take a lot of political will power to make them give that up. Kevin Kevin Whilden Your Planet Earth http://www.yourplanetearth.org (206) 788-0281 (ph) (206) 788-0284 (f) *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced/forwarded outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
>Mark, >My website, Your Planet Earth, is designed to be an educational resource >for issues revolving around sustainability. Climate change is probably the >biggest problem global society will face in terms of sustainability. At >least, all other problems will be made much worse as a result of climate >change. YPE collects daily news stories on issues such as climate change, >and has a glossary that attemts to explain a lot of the issues that revolve >around climate change and give the "straight facts" without rhetoric and >with as many references to scientific literature as possible. Go ahead and >check it out... http://www.yourplanetearth.org [snip other interesting stuff] Thanks, Kevin, for pointing me to your website. I have just visited it and am very excited to find it -- it looks like a great source, just the type of thing I was looking for. If other Paddlewisers have not visited Kevin's site, I would certain suggest that you do so (URL above). Thanks also to Jackie and others who provided information and sources regarding global warming, in response to my request. For several months now I have been trying to learn more about this subject. I should have known that Paddlewise would be a great resource. Thanks to all. . . . Mark *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced/forwarded outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
From: "SRI" <sailboatrestorations_at_worldnet.att.net> > > Anyway, the subject of global warming is of great interest to me. I have > been trying to learn more about it, but I find information hard to get. > Lots of the sources seem to be "fringe" groups with too much rhetoric and > not enough straight factual info. Anyone know how one might really learn > about this subject? TIA. > > Mark Go to this site and do a search on " global warming " http://scienceweek.com/swfr.htm Also, the following is from this week's Scienceweek issue, retransmitted with permission (a side note, PaddleWise discussions include issues of environmental concern which can affect our marine environment): from Science Week, 11 August: 1. EARTH SCIENCES: CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 1000 YEARS The physical basis of the so-called "greenhouse effect" is essentially as follows: Carbon dioxide gas is transparent to visible light but relatively opaque to infrared radiation. The same is true of glass. Relatively high-energy visible light radiation from the sun passes inward through the atmosphere, warms the surface of the Earth, which then radiates lower energy in the form of infrared radiation (heat) back to the atmosphere. But if the atmosphere has a concentration of infrared impenetrable gases such as carbon dioxide, the infrared radiation cannot pass out, and the surface of the Earth underlying the atmosphere cannot cool, and the surface of the Earth thus will continue to grow hotter. There is no significant disagreement concerning the mechanism of the greenhouse effect, but the consequences of the effect, particularly for future global climate, are unclear. ... ... Thomas J. Crowley (Texas A & M University, US) presents a detailed study of the causes of climate change over the past 1000 years, the author making the following points: 1) The author points out that the origin of the late-20th century increase in global temperatures has prompted considerable discussion. Detailed comparisons of climate-model results with observations suggest that anthropogenic changes, particularly greenhouse gas increases, are probably responsible for this climate change. There are, however, a number of persistent questions concerning these conclusions that involve uncertainties in the level of low-frequency unforced variability in the climate system, and whether factors such as an increase in *solar irradiance or a reduction in *volcanism might account for a substantial amount of the observed 20th century warming. Although many studies have addressed these issues from the paleoclimate perspective of the past few centuries, robust conclusions have been hampered by inadequate lengths of the time series evaluated. 2) The author reports that the agreement between model results and observations for the past 1000 years is sufficiently compelling to allow one to conclude that natural variability plays only a subsidiary role in the 20th century warming, and that the most parsimonious explanation for most of the warming is that it is due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases. 3) The data used in this study included physically based reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and indices of volcanism, solar variability, and changes in greenhouse gases and *tropospheric aerosols. 4) The author concludes: "There are... two independent lines of evidence pointing to the unusual nature of late-20th century temperatures. First, the warming over the past century is unprecedented in the past 1000 years. Second, the same climate model that can successfully explain much of the variability in Northern Hemisphere temperature over the interval 1000-1850 indicates that only about 25% of the 20th-century temperature increase can be attributed to natural variability. The bulk of the 20th-century warming is consistent with that predicted from greenhouse gas increases. These two lines of evidence provide further support for the idea that the greenhouse effect is already here." ----------- Thomas J. Crowley: Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. (Science 14 Jul 00 289:270) QY: Thomas J. Crowley [tcrowley_at_ocean.tamu.edu] ----------- Text Notes: ... ... *solar irradiance: In general, the amount of solar irradiation received from the Sun. ... ... *volcanism: In general, the eruption of lava. ... ... *tropospheric aerosols: The term "troposphere" refers to the lowest 10 to 20 kilometers of the atmosphere (with the lower boundary the surface of the Earth). The term "aerosol" refers to a dispersion in which a finely divided solid is suspended in air and the particles are of colloidal dimensions. The term "colloidal dimensions" refers to the range approximately 1 nanometer to 100 nanometers in diameter. ------------------- Summary & Notes by SCIENCE-WEEK http://scienceweek.com 11Aug00 For more information: http://scienceweek.com/swfr.htm *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced/forwarded outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
In a message dated 8/9/00 7:40:57 PM !!!First Boot!!!, Evan_Dallas_at_notes.ntrs.com writes: << Wouldn't the global warming encourage the polar bears to migrate further *north* (to be more in their "natural" climate) rather than further south? >> Yes, but if they go too far North, they'll be heading South. Bruce McC WEO *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced/forwarded outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Bruce; Regarding... << Yes, but if they go too far North, they'll be heading South.>> Reminds me of the phrase, "the politician's political views were so far left, he ended up being on the right." - Lou 000809/1512 [demime removed a uuencoded section named winmail.dat which was 48 lines] *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced/forwarded outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
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