I thought th group would like to see this article http://www.stats.org/newsletters/0201/shark.htm and a little longer followup http://www.techcentralstation.com/1051/techwrapper.jsp?PID=1051-250&CID=1051-022502A Fine examples of herd-mentality at work... --allan *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Here's another angle: http://slate.msn.com/?id=114958 Here's an example of one story that appeared last year: http://slate.msn.com/?id=112116 and more information on the Bull Shark: http://www.seatrek.org/curriculum/reference/species/bull.htm Craig ----- Original Message ----- From: "Allan McLane" <amcl_at_sover.net> To: "PaddleWise" <PaddleWise_at_paddlewise.net> Sent: Monday, February 25, 2002 12:25 PM Subject: [Paddlewise] Shark story stats > I thought th group would like to see this article http://www.stats.org/newsletters/0201/shark.htm and a little longer followup http://www.techcentralstation.com/1051/techwrapper.jsp?PID=1051-250&CID=1051 -022502A > > Fine examples of herd-mentality at work... snip *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
> From: "Craig MacKinnon" <elroca_at_earthlink.net> > > Here's another angle: > > http://slate.msn.com/?id=114958 Hardly an article (or author) I'd reference if I wanted the facts on this subject. There are over 300 species of sharks. Only a very small number of shark species have been known to attack humans. Marine researchers and scientists make the point that the vast majority are harmless ("gentle" and "trusted" are Saletan's words and, in his effort to poke fun at scientists and researchers as well as conservationists, he deliberately omits the distinction between the species... informing the reader of the real facts is not his goal). Saletan is engaging in the same game of promoting supporting statistics of which he accuses the "apologists" by claiming 2001 figures are as high as 2000 when he's caught short... there turns out to be fewer attacks reported in 2001 than 2000... a *full* *eleven* percent! 8-O (before anyone thinks the numbers are significant, that's 85 reported attacks for 2000 and 76 for 2001... but it's *still* eleven percent! :-) But Saletan wrote his article on shark attacks in September (during the big media feeding frenzy on shark attacks), when the number of attacks usually decline and before he could know there would indeed be fewer attacks for 2001. George Burgess referenced the 2001 decline in attacks to punctuate the point that it is difficult if not impossible for scientists to get real meaning from those figures because... attacks are so rare. Burgess refused to acknowledge the lower figures had any significance or meaning in shark attacks. I'm not sure what your point is. Are you afraid you are going to be attacked by a shark while out in your kayak, especially a bull shark (i.e. the URLs you submitted on bull sharks which are believed by researchers to be the most dangerous)? My point (and I believe Alan's point) was that the sensationalism of shark attacks last summer was just that. I know some folks find rationalism to be pretty boring, but I find knowing the facts refreshing. And the fact is... there are a lot more concerns for kayakers (or the vast majority of the human population) than shark attack. Simply put, it didn't deserve the media hype and stopped getting coverage when September 11 happened (at least in this country). Note, there were 24 more shark attacks reported after Saletan's Sept 7 article (another 46 percent!) but we just didn't read much about them because the media had bigger fish to fry. I find it unfortunate but accurate when Iain Murray at STATS says "Every year there is a struggle between science and journalism that science normally loses." But I do think there is hope. Jackie *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Jackie Fenton wrote: > > Marine > researchers and scientists make the point that the vast majority are > harmless ("gentle" and "trusted" are Saletan's words and, in his effort > to poke fun at scientists and researchers as well as conservationists, > he deliberately omits the distinction between the species... informing > the reader of the real facts is not his goal). This article reminded me of the line from Bill Bryson's book _A Walk in the Woods_ about the Appalachian Trail, which I quote from memory: "We know from statistics that the chances of being eaten by a bear are very low, but--and this is the absolutely crucial part--if it's you that's eaten, once is enough" I'm much more worried about jetskis, hypothermia, and poisonous jellies than I am about sharks, but if one bites me I'll bet it will ruin my whole day. Won't for an instant keep me off the water, of course, and I'll consider a shark sighting a rare priviledge. -- Steve *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
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