Re: [Paddlewise] swim for it?

   I would assume we are interested in the conditional probability of
survival, given that the individual swam. We would also be interested
in the conditional probability of survival, given the individual stayed
with the boat. Unfortunately, this source turns these conditional
probabilities around, and gives for example: P(swim | survival)=.60 and
P(stay | survival)=.30. This is not very helpful, and does not provide
sufficient imformation to employ Bayes Rules to compute P(survival | swim)
and P(survival | stay).

Brad Crain

Quoting skimmer <skimmer_at_enter.net>:

> Boat capsized? Advice changes on what to do
> <http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/229808>  thestar.com (06-27-
> 07)
> Is this our best advice?
>
> Chuck Sutherland
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