Bradford R. Crain wrote: > I would assume we are interested in the conditional probability of > survival, given that the individual swam. We would also be interested in > the conditional probability of survival, given the individual stayed > with the boat. Unfortunately, this source turns these conditional > probabilities around, and gives for example: P(swim | survival)=.60 and > P(stay | survival)=.30. This is not very helpful, and does not provide > sufficient information to employ Bayes Rules to compute P(survival | > swim) and P(survival | stay). In terms a dumb chemist might understand, I think this means we don't know what proportion of bodies found dead swam, and which proportion, instead, held onto the hull until they passed out and could not hold on any longer. The advice to consider swimming is moot where I paddle; 800 - 1000 meters is more than I can swim, most likely, and much of the time I am farther than that away from shore, anyhow. -- Dave Kruger Astoria, OR *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************Received on Thu Nov 08 2007 - 20:27:10 PST
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