RE: [Paddlewise] swim for it?

Great topic, Chuck -- and great timing, too.

I've worked a fair amount with the Canadian Defence Research and
Development folks, and have great respect for their research, especially
in airliner safety.  And I've worked in their part of the world long
enough to know that in June, when the last of the snow has melted --
mostly -- it's easier to think about cold water because there's less of
it.  However, my knee-jerk reaction to the article and to Dr. Ducharme's
new theories was that his research needed a very hard look.  Others have
noted the stats and other issues: I'm centered on the note in
http://cisti-icist.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/media/press/swim_safety_e.html that,
"In its 2006 drowning report, the Canadian Red Cross stated that if
rescue is unlikely, it may be preferable to swim to safety."  That's up
there with "it's better to be rich and healthy than poor and sick," and
I think an earlier response had a similar reaction.  (That link also has
a link to the full report. 

That said, in a related article,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abs
tractPlus&list_uids=17622298&tool=MedlinePlus, Dr. Ducharme and a
colleague make a valid point: their study noted that "... the subjects
were quite astute at deciding their swimming strategy early in the
immersion with 86% success, but after about 30 min of swimming or
passive cooling, their decision-making ability became impaired. It would
therefore seem wise to make one's accidental immersion survival plan
early during the immersion, directly after cessation of the cold shock
responses."  That's a very valid point, and requires some thought
process rather than a checklist response -- "in water, don't swim".
And, to the earlier point, if there's no way anyone is going to even
begin to look for you -- you're playing hooky, the dog ate your float
plan, and you have not attempted a re-entry and roll or another
self-rescue technique (which doesn't seem to figure into the logic of
this study) and you seem to have forgotten your VHF and your cell phone
and your survival flares and smoke signals, swimming to shore doesn't
seem to be a bad option, although you could be making one bad decision
on top of other bad decisions -- like how is it that you fell out of the
boat in the first place while alone and far away, and why can't you do a
self rescue?

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.  As to Harvey Golden's note (of irony)
that the research must be good because it's from the government, an
additional note: The Journal of the American Medical Association on
Wednesday published a study which pointed to the fact that being fat
does not negatively effect one's health, and may, in fact, be good for
you -- based on statistics.  

Joq


Boat capsized? Advice changes on what to do
<http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/229808>  thestar.com (06-27-
07)
Is this our best advice? 
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