Re: [Paddlewise] swim for it?

   Bayes Theorem says for example:
P(survive|swim)=P(swim|survive)P(survive)/Denominator, where
Denominator=P(swim|survive)P(survive)+P(swim|not survive)P(not survive).
The only one of these quantities given is P(swim|survive)=.60.
So we seem to have insufficient info.
   Conversely, I took Freshman chemistry, and can't even remember the
chemical symbols from the periodic table.

BRC



Quoting Dave Kruger <kdruger_at_pacifier.com>:

> Bradford R. Crain wrote:
>> I would assume we are interested in the conditional probability of   
>> survival, given that the individual swam. We would also be   
>> interested in
>> the conditional probability of survival, given the individual   
>> stayed with the boat. Unfortunately, this source turns these   
>> conditional probabilities around, and gives for example: P(swim |   
>> survival)=.60 and P(stay | survival)=.30. This is not very helpful,  
>>  and does not provide sufficient information to employ Bayes Rules   
>> to compute P(survival |
>> swim) and P(survival | stay).
>
> In terms a dumb chemist might understand, I think this means we don't
> know what proportion of bodies found dead swam, and which proportion,
> instead, held onto the hull until they passed out and could not hold on
> any longer.
>
> The advice to consider swimming is moot where I paddle; 800 - 1000
> meters is more than I can swim, most likely, and much of the time I am
> farther than that away from shore, anyhow.
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