Re: [Paddlewise] Winter in a time of Climate Change

Craig has been working very hard here, trying to convince folks that 
science is a good tool to use for helping to decide public policy, at least 
in areas where science has evidence and conclusions that politicians (and 
the public) might heed.

He and I have corresponded back channel on this, and he remains convinced 
that expostulations here will convince someone (anyone??) of a point of 
view about "global warming" different from what they already hold dear to 
their hearts.  I'm not so sure about that.

I spent over 30 years inculcating an appreciation of the benefits and 
limits of scientific analysis, as part of instruction in introductory 
chemistry classes at the college level.  Looking back, and reflecting on 
what my students later showed for my efforts, I am very much less than 
sanguine about the effectiveness of debates such as the one occurring here.

In my experience, until a person has had several "dope slap" reality slams 
illustrating that an idea they believe in is dead wrong, dead wrong, they 
will not let go of that idea.  Over time, if a person has this happen 
enough times, they get pretty good at not fooling themselves ... and are 
able to detect "crap" when it is passed off as fact or analysis by others.

The value of listening to scientists on things like global warming is that 
the culture and training of scientists ensures that they have ample chance 
to develop very good crap detectors.  (Guys like Al Gore ... not so much! 
But, I think the thrust of what Gore promotes is more or less correct, if 
you avoid all the cow patties he lays around for a listener to step in!)

I think the thrust of Craig's elocutions is perhaps this:  place your trust 
in folks with solid training in an area if you have none in that area; look 
askance at all others who are not credentialed or willing to submit their 
data and analysis to scientific scrutiny.  Here is a comparison:  Few of us 
would attempt brain surgery on someone else without training; none of us 
would dial up "brain surgery" on the internet and use the information in 
the first 10 sites Google brings up to pop a skull and dig right in.  Yet, 
many of us are content to cherry pick facts and analyses off a Google 
search to fit a point of view we like or embrace in a huge, difficult arena 
such as climate change.  That is seriously wrong.  In fact, it is probably 
a form of neurotic behavior.  We do not need that kind of "debate" on a 
serious issue like global warming.

-- 
Dave Kruger
Astoria, OR
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