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From: Tord S. Eriksson <tord_at_mindless.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Mon, 31 Aug 2009 23:17:40 +0100
Having spent some time at sea - sail boats, cruise liners
an semi-submersibles - and much in lakes rowing and sailing,
I think the existence of these rogue waves had been debated,
and after having reprogrammed some weather satellite to
scan a certain area for big waves over many months, they
have now been proved to exist!

About a hundred major commercial vessels disappear
annually, and while some might get diverted to other ports
by unknown agendas, or unknown pirates, many are just lost,
and as a few ships have met these mammoth waves out of nowhere,
and survived (the example I recall is QE II hitting a 100 ft wave in
WWII, barely surviving the ordeal, but it sure wasn't weather
for German U-boats)!

At one time the US released the number of aircraft that had been
lost in USSR airspace (800+) during the cold war - anyone knows 
how many ships that likewise have just vanished?! Many could have
been lost under similar circumstances as these 'rogue waves' create,
which easily could topple even quite major ships! 

Quite a few ships over 600 ft long have just gone missing - like the
Norwegian bulk carrier 'Berge Istra' (sp?) - some explaining it as
a spontaneous explosion, but a 'rogue wave' would fit just as well!
The ship just vanished in good weather somewhere in the Pacific -
leaving not a single piece of flotsam, nor any distress calls!

Quite a few sail boats have turned turtle during ocean crossings,
but I haven't heard any blaming 'rogue waves' :-)! If such a wave 
hits you during a storm, I don't think you'll be able to note it's 
immense size, it is just a wall of water, period.

The Estonia ferry, that killed about as many Swedes as the Tsunami,
or close to a thousand, also met a really big wave which ripped its 
bow off - could a rogue appear in a lake (very big, an inland sea)?!

Waves of this size (100 ft, and above) have been recorded from the 
Roaring Fourties, but there the waves are darn big any day!






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From: Ari Saarto <asaarto_at_elisanet.fi>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2009 08:39:21 +0300
Hello Tord and all,

please let me put a little bit light into the Estonia case, because it  
is very widely discussed (I do not believe still living theories about  
a conspiracy). The number of casualties is about 800: mostly Swedes,  
Finns and Estonians.

The ship had pretty huge construction and reconstruction problems in  
the bow visor - and took continuos beating onto the bow during the  
final night.

There are no special information about a rogue wave, but rather  
interesting statistics (from the report, http://www.onnettomuustutkinta.fi/estonia/chapt13_1.html) 
:

"The weather at the accident site at about 0100 hrs was rough but not  
extreme. The wind was south-westerly, mean velocity 18 - 20 m/s.  
Statistically, winds of such force occur five to ten times annually  
during the autumn and the winter in the northern Baltic Sea. The  
significant wave height was about 4 m. Generating a wave pattern with  
a significant wave height of this magnitude requires wind of 15 - 20 m/ 
s from S - SW for at least ten hours.
Numerous studies of wave statistics show that, if the significant wave  
height is 4 m, one wave in a hundred will be higher than 6 m. A  
maximum wave height is estimated as twice the significant height.
The weather forecast for the midnight hours predicted a significant  
wave height of only 2.5 to 3.5 m whereas the actual height was about  
one metre more. Even if the predictions had been correct, this would  
most likely not have changed the way the passage was conducted."

I remember still the awful morning, receiving the first news and  
images of the disaster.

Ari Saarto
- navigare necesse est -
http://asaarto1.blogspot.com/




On 1. syys 2009, at 01:17, Tord S. Eriksson wrote:
>
> The Estonia ferry, that killed about as many Swedes as the Tsunami,
> or close to a thousand, also met a really big wave which ripped its
> bow off - could a rogue appear in a lake (very big, an inland sea)?
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From: Doug Lloyd <douglloyd_at_shaw.ca>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2009 22:32:43 -0700
Yes Ari,

That was a sad tradgedy.

I don't know how engineers design ships to withstand seas when they do get 
over 50 feet. I've heard oceangoing vessels trade roll tendency for 
greater-frequency mechanical shock which yields stability, leaving eventual 
metal fatigue as a result.

I read some more about these rogue waves here, which helped me understand 
the math a bit more with my limited simian brain:

http://www.math.uio.no/~karstent/waves/index_en.html

I also read the full Wikapedia site and looked into some of the ship 
dissapearences cited. Obviously, there is no proof for or against rogue wave 
causation with these incidents. There was a definition of about rogue waves, 
defining them as twice the height of the highest normally expected wave. For 
me. I'd always considered a true rogue wave as one at least three times the 
typically highest expected wave height with a preceeding cavernous trough 
that a vessel plows down into headlong or if encountered sideways, heels the 
vessel beyond  the righting moment. Following the deep trough is a steep 
wave fave the provided the "coup d'etat" as it were.

I can't reach any definitve conclusions on the issue but if marine ship 
designers are considering these extreme wave events in the context of 
designing ships for sea, well, obviously there's someone out there 
concerned.

As some of the better research on rogue waves is coming out of Europe, I'm 
not sure why Tord is so dismisive. Not very faithful to his European peers. 
:-)

Doug Lloyd

> Hello Tord and all,
>
> please let me put a little bit light into the Estonia case, because it  is 
> very widely discussed (I do not believe still living theories about  a 
> conspiracy). The number of casualties is about 800: mostly Swedes,  Finns 
> and Estonians.
>
> The ship had pretty huge construction and reconstruction problems in  the 
> bow visor - and took continuos beating onto the bow during the  final 
> night.
>
> There are no special information about a rogue wave, but rather 
> interesting statistics (from the report, 
> http://www.onnettomuustutkinta.fi/estonia/chapt13_1.html) :
>
> "The weather at the accident site at about 0100 hrs was rough but not 
> extreme. The wind was south-westerly, mean velocity 18 - 20 m/s. 
> Statistically, winds of such force occur five to ten times annually 
> during the autumn and the winter in the northern Baltic Sea. The 
> significant wave height was about 4 m. Generating a wave pattern with  a 
> significant wave height of this magnitude requires wind of 15 - 20 m/ s 
> from S - SW for at least ten hours.
> Numerous studies of wave statistics show that, if the significant wave 
> height is 4 m, one wave in a hundred will be higher than 6 m. A  maximum 
> wave height is estimated as twice the significant height.
> The weather forecast for the midnight hours predicted a significant  wave 
> height of only 2.5 to 3.5 m whereas the actual height was about  one metre 
> more. Even if the predictions had been correct, this would  most likely 
> not have changed the way the passage was conducted."
>
> I remember still the awful morning, receiving the first news and  images 
> of the disaster.
>
> Ari Saarto
> - navigare necesse est -
> http://asaarto1.blogspot.com/
>
>
>
>
> On 1. syys 2009, at 01:17, Tord S. Eriksson wrote:
>>
>> The Estonia ferry, that killed about as many Swedes as the Tsunami,
>> or close to a thousand, also met a really big wave which ripped its
>> bow off - could a rogue appear in a lake (very big, an inland sea)?
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From: Doug Lloyd <douglloyd_at_shaw.ca>
subject: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 23:12:01 -0700
Having lost a bit with the last rogue wave that crashed down out of almost 
nowhere (hey, should have seen it coming), I wonder what the next one will 
be like to try and survive?

Doug Lloyd (whose thinking about cashing in his dismal Asian market 
portfolio and just buying a new kayak where he can at least enjoy the 
waves...


> Having spent some time at sea - sail boats, cruise liners
> an semi-submersibles - and much in lakes rowing and sailing,
> I think the existence of these rogue waves had been debated,
> and after having reprogrammed some weather satellite to
> scan a certain area for big waves over many months, they
> have now been proved to exist!
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From: Tord S. Eriksson <tord_at_mindless.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 10:03:02 +0100
 Well, 100 ft waves would be a challenge, even for you!

Snowy hills maybe could be suitable substitutes to
such waves  - there are some nuts using WW kayaks
in snow on YouTube, somewhere ...

Check you life insurance first ...

Tord

  ----- Original Message -----
  From: "Doug Lloyd"
  To: "Tord S. Eriksson"
  Cc: paddlewise
  Subject: Rouge waves
  Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 23:12:01 -0700


  Having lost a bit with the last rogue wave that crashed down out of
  almost nowhere (hey, should have seen it coming), I wonder what the
  next one will be like to try and survive?

  Doug Lloyd (whose thinking about cashing in his dismal Asian market
  portfolio and just buying a new kayak where he can at least enjoy
  the waves...


  > Having spent some time at sea - sail boats, cruise liners
  > an semi-submersibles - and much in lakes rowing and sailing,
  > I think the existence of these rogue waves had been debated,
  > and after having reprogrammed some weather satellite to
  > scan a certain area for big waves over many months, they
  > have now been proved to exist!

--
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See Yours in Just 2 Easy Steps!
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From: Richard Culpeper <culpeper_at_tbaytel.net>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 05:59:21 -0400
Did that.  Going down the hill was nice.  Jumping the access road at the
base was not anticipated, but went well.  Entering into the scrub beyond the
road was not something that I would want to do again.

-----Original Message-----
From: Tord S. Eriksson

Snowy hills maybe could be suitable substitutes to
such waves  - there are some nuts using WW kayaks
in snow on YouTube, somewhere ...
+
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From: Bradford R. Crain <crainb_at_pdx.edu>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Thu, 03 Sep 2009 09:16:40 -0700
   Imagine careening down an icy slope in a kayak. Brings back memories
of Chevy Chase screaming down a hill in "Christmas Vacation". I think
I'll just watch the movies and videos.
   Back in high school in Florida, John Carpenter invented the sport of
water skiing into bridge pilings. Not sure how we ever survived.

Brad Crain

Quoting Richard Culpeper <culpeper_at_tbaytel.net>:

> Did that.  Going down the hill was nice.  Jumping the access road at the
> base was not anticipated, but went well.  Entering into the scrub beyond the
> road was not something that I would want to do again.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Tord S. Eriksson
>
> Snowy hills maybe could be suitable substitutes to
> such waves  - there are some nuts using WW kayaks
> in snow on YouTube, somewhere ...
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From: Craig Jungers <crjungers_at_gmail.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 07:37:57 -0700
On Thu, Sep 3, 2009 at 2:59 AM, Richard Culpeper <culpeper_at_tbaytel.net>wrote:

> Did that.  Going down the hill was nice.  Jumping the access road at the
> base was not anticipated, but went well.  Entering into the scrub beyond
> the
> road was not something that I would want to do again.
>

It's not enough that the snow is slippery and you go very fast but then they
expect you to turn, too. Sheesh.


>  -----Original Message-----
> From: Tord S. Eriksson
>
> Snowy hills maybe could be suitable substitutes to
> such waves  - there are some nuts using WW kayaks
> in snow on YouTube, somewhere ...
>

Just what we need: Rogue Moguls.

>
Craig Jungers
Moses Lake, WA
www.nwkayaking.net
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From: Richard Culpeper <culpeper_at_tbaytel.net>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 11:04:01 -0400
Now there's the difference between kayaking in powder snow, and kayaking on
eastern ice.  In powder, you have at least a limited ability to turn due to
snow pressure on the hull, whereas on eastern ice you have no ability to
turn at all - all you can do is use wind resistance on the offset blades to
spin the boat one way or the other, which is nice in that you can keep
pointed downhill and see what you are going to hit.

 

Decked vs. sit-on-top also is worth considering.  For example, when we
jumped the road, the sit-on-top fellow bounced off of his boat upon landing,
whereas I in a decked boat was not bounced off.  The flip side of the coin
is that at least the sit-on-top fellow had tumbled to a stop before entering
the scrub.

 

I'm glad I'm older and wiser now, for these days I live down the street from
an abandoned ski jump complex that includes a jump training pool.  If I were
twenty years younger, I can tell you what I would be doing . . .

 

  _____  

From: Craig Jungers

 

It's not enough that the snow is slippery and you go very fast but then they
expect you to turn, too. Sheesh.
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From: Craig Jungers <crjungers_at_gmail.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 08:11:44 -0700
On Thu, Sep 3, 2009 at 8:04 AM, Richard Culpeper <culpeper_at_tbaytel.net>wrote:

>
>
> I'm glad I'm older and wiser now, for these days I live down the street
> from
> an abandoned ski jump complex that includes a jump training pool.  If I
> were
> twenty years younger, I can tell you what I would be doing . . .
>

It seems to me that an abandoned ski jump complex could be considered a
rogue mogul.


Craig
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From: Craig Jungers <crjungers_at_gmail.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 08:18:27 -0700
On Thu, Sep 3, 2009 at 8:04 AM, Richard Culpeper <culpeper_at_tbaytel.net>wrote:

> Now there's the difference between kayaking in powder snow, and kayaking on
> eastern ice.
>

I really don't know how you guys manage to ski on that stuff (much less
kayak!). When I joined a US Government Agency and drove my 1955 Chevrolet
Convertible from Seattle to Washington, DC in the 1960s I had 3 pairs of
racing skis (complete with "long thongs") with me.

The first available winter weekend I drove to Blue Knob, PA for a nice
weekend of skiing. I had been involved in racing for several years so I
figured it would just be a nice weekendfun time on a pretty small ski slope.
Boy was I in for a surprise! My slalom skis were useless. My GS skiis were
only barely tolerable. It was only when I strapped on the 220cm Kastle
Downhill skis that I felt comfortable. Although I might have been going a
tad fast for all the other people on the slopes that weekend. :D

That stuff is *hard*.

Craig Jungers
Moses Lake, WA
www.nwkayaking.net
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From: James <jimtibensky_at_fastmail.fm>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Fri, 04 Sep 2009 08:05:29 -0500
Richard Culpeper wrote: Now there's the difference between kayaking in
powder snow, and kayaking on eastern ice.  In powder, you have at least
a limited ability to turn due to snow pressure on the hull, whereas on
eastern ice you have no ability to turn at all - all you can do is use
wind resistance on the offset blades to spin the boat one way or the
other.


A couple of things -

When kayaking in powder snow, do you edge into the turn or away from the
turn???

My own experience in kayak sledding has only been in midwestern snow
which is neither ice nor powder.  I found that I had no control
whatever, no matter what my edges were doing.  

I did learn that glass boats slide a ton better than tupperware boats
and that, in the old, long whitewater boats of the day (this was in the
'70s) it was maximum fun if you would lie down in the boat with your
head and whole body below decks and then have someone give the boat a
little spin as they pushed you down the slope.  

I think if I did that now I would be sick for a week.


Jim Tibensky
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From: Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 12:07:05 -0400
On Thu, Sep 03, 2009 at 10:03:02AM +0100, Tord S. Eriksson wrote:
> Snowy hills maybe could be suitable substitutes to
> such waves  - there are some nuts using WW kayaks
> in snow on YouTube, somewhere ...

<cough> I've run this experiment, circa 1993, after having watched
a video of someone kayaking down the side of a mountain in Tibet
or Switzerland or somewhere.   And among the scattered observations
I can make are (a) boats are not designed to go that fast and
(b) it's important to note that sometimes snow conditions at
the beginning are not the same as snow conditions at the end.

---Rsk
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From: Doug Lloyd <douglloyd_at_shaw.ca>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Rouge waves
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2009 23:32:19 -0700
Use a rudder. :-)

DL

Jim mentioned:

>> 
> When kayaking in powder snow, do you edge into the turn or away from the
> turn???
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