-----Original Message----- From: Bob Apter [mailto:bapter_at_nwlink.com] Sent: Thursday, November 04, 1999 10:03 AM To: 735769; paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk - was How and when Actually, there has been a significant decline in the total number of deaths from motor vehicle crashes in the US over the last 20 years or so, and a much greater decline in the number of deaths per mile travelled. Granted other factors may be involved, but it does appear that safety improvements in autos and roads have made a difference. *********************************************************** This reminds me of a conversation I had with a park ranger at the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore a couple of years ago. I had heard that another ranger thought the area was overdue for a sea kayaking death. The reply of the ranger I talked to was that it was statistical nonsense, because the various sea kayaking incidents in the area requiring rescue had no common contributing factors. She added that whereas the numbers of deaths and SARs at Denali had increased proprtionately to the increase in in the number of climbers, there had been no similar increase in sea kayaking incidents in the Apostles despite the mushrooming popularity of the sport. It may be that as new kayakers enter the sport, the older ones acquire more experience, knowledge, and skills, thus keeping the pool of people likely to require assistance relatively constant. If John Winters' theory of risk homeostasis applied to sea kayaking, one would think that as each kayaker's level of risk stabilized, the number of incidents would increase in linear proportion to the population of sea kayakers. In the Apostles, at least, it does not appear to be true. Considering the large number of novice sea kayakers going out in the Apostles after only a few hours of instruction, I am amazed that there have not been any deaths in the area. Either the sport is not as inherently dangerous as we think (at least, not in a non-tidal area such as Lake Superior), or the amount of skill and instruction required to sharply reduce deaths is much lower than often appears. Chuck Holst *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
At 10:34 AM 11/4/99 -0600, Chuck Holst wrote: > >Considering the large number of novice sea kayakers going out in the >Apostles after only a few hours of instruction, I am amazed that there >have not been any deaths in the area. Either the sport is not as >inherently dangerous as we think (at least, not in a non-tidal area such >as Lake Superior), or the amount of skill and instruction required to >sharply reduce deaths is much lower than often appears. > One of the difficulties that we have had with this discussion is that the degree of risk varies so much from place to place and from time to time, so you can't take blanket measures that are appropriate for all circumstances. As a for-instance: we're talking an inland lake, about 600 acres. Water temp is in the high fifties, air temp is in the seventies. Not enough wind to try out my new sailboat, and a leisurely paddle on flat water with another moderately skilled paddler. In spite of the marginal water temp, is it reasonable to skip the wet suit? I was glad I did Sunday; before it was over with, I'd peeled down to a t-shirt. It got warm out there. OK, Monday a front comes through. It's the same lake, the water temp is about the same, but the air temp is about 40, it's blowing 25-30 MPH, with rain and snow, the waves are about as big as you'll ever see on an inland lake, and, since it's a week day, I'd have to be solo and going out just before sunset. Should I wear a wet suit? No, because I'm not going out in those conditions. The risk level -- and, for that matter, the discomfort level -- is too high. I immensely respect people like Doug Lloyd, storm paddling, in a Nordkapp, no less, miles from anywhere, solo, cold water, a huge element of risk -- but equipped and trained for it as well as he can be. Would I accept that level of risk? No. Since I have a far more benign risk threshold, do I need the same level of equipment, training and experience? I don't think so, although clearly I do need some fraction of it. The threshold of risk that each individual will accept has to be the decision of that individual. That decision needs to be made conservatively and wisely, and based on one's experience, training, equipment, and better judgement. How do I acquire all this? It's not a straightforward answer -- it comes piece by piece, with some mistakes made along the way. While training gives some depth to the process of making a decision, it cannot by itself be the basis for decision. Theoretical knowledge needs to be tempered by real world experience, or it won't be real. You have to give people some credit for common sense. If you don't, they will resent blanket rules. -- Wes *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Chuck wrote: >Considering the large number of novice sea kayakers going out in the >Apostles after only a few hours of instruction, I am amazed that there >have not been any deaths in the area. Either the sport is not as >inherently dangerous as we think (at least, not in a non-tidal area such >as Lake Superior), or the amount of skill and instruction required to >sharply reduce deaths is much lower than often appears. I think, and I am really going out on a limb here, that people going out for the first time on Lake Superior are better prepared than many of those out west. One reason is that we simply don't have the numbers they have, and we also don't have the lareg numbers of outfitters. On the Minnesota and Wisconsin portions of the lake, there are only a few that I know of and I believe they all require newbies take an intro course or prove they have experience to perform a self rescue. I can't imagine anyone walking into Cascade Kayaks and saying "gimme a boat, I'm going out" without getting laughed out of the shop. I think people generally have a lot of respect for The Lady. Of course, I've helped get people off the lake when conditions got rough and know plenty of other people whom have done the same. I know, we are just better at rescuing people up here! (Let the flames begin) -Patrick *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Patrick Maun wrote: > > Chuck wrote: > > >Considering the large number of novice sea kayakers going out in the > >Apostles after only a few hours of instruction, I am amazed that there > >have not been any deaths in the area. Either the sport is not as > >inherently dangerous as we think (at least, not in a non-tidal area such > >as Lake Superior), or the amount of skill and instruction required to > >sharply reduce deaths is much lower than often appears. > > I think, and I am really going out on a limb here, that people going > out for the first time on Lake Superior are better prepared than many > of those out west. One reason is that we simply don't have the > numbers they have, and we also don't have the lareg numbers of > outfitters. On the Minnesota and Wisconsin portions of the lake, > there are only a few that I know of and I believe they all require > newbies take an intro course or prove they have experience to perform > a self rescue. I can't imagine anyone walking into Cascade Kayaks and > saying "gimme a boat, I'm going out" without getting laughed out of > the shop. I think people generally have a lot of respect for The Lady. > > Of course, I've helped get people off the lake when conditions got > rough and know plenty of other people whom have done the same. I > know, we are just better at rescuing people up here! (Let the flames > begin) > > -Patrick You shouldn't get flamed for your statements above. Great Lake paddlers, as a whole, seem to have a reputation for being better prepared than you would find on the coasts. The symposia up your way seem to have a more serious bend to them than those on the coast, if that is any indication. That is a generalization but I think it holds true. Certainly lots of paddlers in our NYC metro area are shy some paddling requisites. And I get the impression that the same is true for many paddlers in the Northwest, where not dressing for water temperatures seems to be the vogue for the most part. It may be a matter of numbers of sales outlets and the number of people wanting to get into paddling. There may be pockets of higher skilled paddlers on the coasts, such as the hard core group in Chesapeake Paddlers Assoc. who make up the biggest attendance component at the fall Delmarva Paddlers Retreat, a skills oriented get-together. ralph diaz -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Ralph Diaz . . . Folding Kayaker newsletter PO Box 0754, New York, NY 10024 Tel: 212-724-5069; E-mail: rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com "Where's your sea kayak?"----"It's in the bag." ----------------------------------------------------------------------- *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
> that is any indication. That is a generalization but I think it holds > true. Certainly lots of paddlers in our NYC metro area are shy some > paddling requisites. And I get the impression that the same is true for > many paddlers in the Northwest, where not dressing for water temperatures > seems to be the vogue for the most part. It may be a matter of numbers of > sales outlets and the number of people wanting to get into paddling. I've stayed out of this, but I'll tell you the thing that drives me nuts. Canoe and Kayak magazine TV show (OLN), routinely shows people kayaking over water that you *know* is in the 50's, and not only are they not dressed for immersion; they are paddling WITHOUT the spray skirt secured??? What kind of nuts is that???? Earlier this year, I practiced my roll thingy in 50-something degree water. I can't even describe the unique pain I felt when my bare head was dunked in that cold water. I don't even want to think about how unpleasant it would be to wet exit in such conditions.... Richard Walker Houston, TX http://www.neosoft.com/~rww/kayak_log.html *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Patrick Maun wrote: > I think, and I am really going out on a limb here, that people going > out for the first time on Lake Superior are better prepared than many > of those out west. Sigh. This is the sort of broad generalization which, if it were leveled at a given ethnic or racial group, we would respond loudly with the cry ... "Racism!" Inasmuch as I have ...no... experience paddling anywhere but on the west coast, I sure as heck can not comment on the general level of preparedness, skill level, judgement, etc., for paddlers on the Great Lakes. And, even if I had spent a couple weeks paddling on Lake Supe, I would not use that as a basis for a grand generalization about paddlers on the Lake. So, Patrick, how about a short precis of the personal experience with paddlers from the coasts, so we can judge your "knowledge base?" Thanks. -- Dave Kruger Astoria, OR *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
At 12:52 PM -0800 11/4/99, Dave Kruger wrote: [SNIP] > >So, Patrick, how about a short precis of the personal experience with paddlers >from the coasts, so we can judge your "knowledge base?" > I don't mean to imply that coastal paddlers are any less/more prepared than those on the great lakes. My "knowledge base" consists of reading various scenarios here on Paddlewise involving outfitters and beginning paddlers. I think that given the chance, people here would get themselves in just as much trouble here as on the coasts. It's just that they aren't given that chance as often as in other places. For example, my paddling partner did some early spring paddling (March I think) up in Alaska last year. The outfitters didn't ask him if he had sufficient knowledge or gear to undertake a multi-day solo trip in such conditions (he did), they just rented him the boat. I can't imagine that happening at any of the outfitters around here. That isn't to say that it doesn't, but I haven't seen it. Whether this is even the outfitters responsibility is another issue altogether. I also mentioned that we simply don't have the numbers that you see in the W and NW. Kayaking is getting more and more popular here, but nowhere near as popular as in someplace like Seattle. Of course, people can always go out and buy or borrow a boat and get themselves into plenty of trouble without the aid of an outfitter. >Sigh. This is the sort of broad generalization which, if it were leveled at a >given ethnic or racial group, we would respond loudly with the cry ... "Racism!" Yes, but we're talking about paddling, not race. I think it is perfectly fine to use broad generalizations and even dreaded stereotypes to initiate discussion about something. -Patrick *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - All postings copyright the author and not to be reproduced outside PaddleWise without author's permission Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.4.0 : Thu Aug 21 2025 - 16:33:05 PDT