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From: Doug Lloyd <dalloyd_at_telus.net>
subject: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Sat, 26 Apr 2003 20:50:15 -0700
You were saying Rob:

>The apparent statistic that deaths with and without PFD's are fairly equal,
even when considering only sea kayaking, not whitewater, looks like a case
of "risk homeostasis" at work. Paddlers without PFD's, because they "don't
go far from shore", get into just as much trouble as paddlers with more
skills, more equipment, but who engage in more dangerous pursuits, like
surfing, paddling in rock gardens, cold water, etc.<  <snip>

Seems to me a fairly straightforward situation with this PFD thing, as far
as most kayakers go:

1. Can't swim? Then wear a PFD and/or take up another sport and/or learn to
swim.
2. A new paddler? Probably a good idea to always wear a PFD or equivalent.
3. Intermediate paddler? Almost all the fatalities are usually situations
where the boat drifted away, etc. Stay with a buoyant boat, and who really
needs a PFD as long as you are a good swimmer with immersion apparel if
waters are cold. As long as you stay with your boat...and it's truly
buoyant...
4. Advanced paddler?  Probably don't benefit from a PFD  much. See #3..stay
with the boat, hopefully you have the skill to re-enter. No strength to hang
on to boat? By then you are probably screwed anyway.
5. Me? Wear it for good safety example, carrying gear, PFD on in winter for
thermal benefits, perhaps on deck in mid-day sun away from public in summer,
ALWAYS on in surf zone/rock garden/caves -- unless the buoyancy of my
immersion apparel provides sufficient buoyancy (like a wet suit does for
board surfers); and lately, now using inflatable vest with modified gear
pouch/Sea Seat storage.
5. Big Brother watching you n' listening to us banter? Just wear the damn
thing as much as you can, keep the authorities happy, shut up (not you
personally Rob), and go paddle. And if you are in a situation that truly
demands a PFD for safety sake, or asked for your advice re same, ask the
question: "Prefer Freedom or Death?"

Doug Lloyd
Victoria BC

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~
"Whatever can be said at all can be said clearly and whatever cannot be said
clearly should not be said at all."
Ludwig Wittgenstein
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~

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From: AJ Mallory <amallory_at_Pawsable.com>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 09:14:43 -0700
Scott wrote:
<<In both the ACA report and my own SK survey, which I would like to remind
you deals only with sea kayaking related incidents, the percentage of people
dying with their pfd on is higher then that of those who died without it!
Why is that? >>


I would hope the number of paddlers wearing a PFD far exceeds the number of
those paddling without. Given this "huge" base of kayakers wearing a PFD,
the number of incidents of people involved wearing them may well be greater.
Because there are many more people out there with them on. One needs some
kind of ratio of PFD wearers to non-wearers. Anyone have numbers for that?

AJ Mallory
Portland, OR


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From: Dave Kruger <kdruger_at_pacifier.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 11:31:12 -0700
"Geoff Jennings" <geoff_at_sedakayak.com> wrote:

>> Off course, the difficulty  is deeper than that.   It would also be
necessary to know what percentage of the people who didn't die were wearing
PFDs.   In whitewater, it's VERY rare to see a kayaker without a PFD on.
So I would imagine that the majority of deaths in ww would involve people
wearing PFDs.

In your sea Kayaker study, it would be interesting to know what percentage
of "sea Kayakers" are wearing PFDs. If 85% of Kayakers are wearing them, and
they only account for 56% of deaths, then it would suggest that you're
better off with them that without...

I'm not saying that the case, just that those numbers alone leave something
to be desired when drawing conclusions about their effectiveness. >>

Geoff has hit on one of the better ways to look at the data.  Certainly
whether a person is wearing a PFD at time of drowning  (or, __not__ wearing
a PFD at time of drowning) might be important.  But, it will take
sophisticated analysis to extract a __cause and effect__ relationship.  And,
perhaps, a sophisticated audience which will understand which analyses are
bogus and which are not [of course, _we_ are all sophisticated, aren't we?].

Now, put those data into the hands of the typical state legislature, and
apply the sophisticometer.  What do you get?  Half the time, some pretty
silly laws, some based in ignorance, some based in stupidity (inability to
use facts well).

What should we do?  Organize -- join ACA or a similar group that fits your
preferences.  Write our state legislator when obnoxious laws are proposed.
Go to town meetings that focus on such legislation.

It's a cinch that isolated voices will get short shrift in any legislative
tangle.  In Oregon, we avoided a really obnoxious law restricting use of
streambeds (e.g., walking __in__ the streambed -- navigable waters included,
IIRC) when a coalition of steelhead fishers, paddlers, and the like banded
together, spent their own money, and hit the legislature pretty hard.  I
might mention that frequent Paddlewise contributor Steve Scherrer and his
business (Alder Creek, Portland) were linchpins in that effort.

The ACA pamphlet is an important piece of literature in this fight.  It
identifies the problem (and, it ain't us -- it's mainly entry-level paddlers
untutored in handling their craft, PFD or no PFD) and proposes solutions,
__none__, that's __none__ of which include registration of boats or boat
taxes, or the like.  It is a great piece of educational material to hand
your state legislator when a law, mandating "training" before a person puts
paw to paddle, comes up

But, it is only a tool.  We will have to be vigilant or we will end up with
restrictions none of us can stomach.

And, no, I wear my PFD all the time while paddling.  If asked to wear a
conventional PFD while snorkeling, I'd have the same response as the initial
reporter:  stuff it!  I'd also have the same reponse in __some__ kinds of
surfing situations.  Certainly I would if I had to body surf -- can't do it
in a bulky PFD.

--
Dave Kruger
Astoria, OR
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From: Nick Schade <nick_at_guillemot-kayaks.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 16:04:58 -0400
On Thursday, April 24, 2003, at 02:31  PM, Dave Kruger wrote:

> "Geoff Jennings" <geoff_at_sedakayak.com> wrote:
>
>>> Off course, the difficulty  is deeper than that.   It would also be
> necessary to know what percentage of the people who didn't die were 
> wearing
> PFDs.   In whitewater, it's VERY rare to see a kayaker without a PFD 
> on.
> So I would imagine that the majority of deaths in ww would involve 
> people
> wearing PFDs.
> <snip>
> Geoff has hit on one of the better ways to look at the data.  Certainly
> whether a person is wearing a PFD at time of drowning  (or, __not__ 
> wearing
> a PFD at time of drowning) might be important.  But, it will take
> sophisticated analysis to extract a __cause and effect__ relationship. 
>  And,
> perhaps, a sophisticated audience which will understand which analyses 
> are
> bogus and which are not [of course, _we_ are all sophisticated, aren't 
> we?].

BTW, there is data out there that shows a correlation between boating 
safety classes and a reduction in fatalities. I think it is even harder 
to connect a cause and effect to this data, but legislators are happy 
to use it to justify mandatory boating safety classes.

> Now, put those data into the hands of the typical state legislature, 
> and
> apply the sophisticometer.  What do you get?  Half the time, some 
> pretty
> silly laws, some based in ignorance, some based in stupidity 
> (inability to
> use facts well).
>
> What should we do?  Organize -- join ACA or a similar group that fits 
> your
> preferences.  Write our state legislator when obnoxious laws are 
> proposed.
> Go to town meetings that focus on such legislation.

The recommendation from the Coast Guard Recreational Boating Safety guy 
I talked to was to take actions that get the word out that there are 
risks with kayaking, and things like wearing a PFD and taking safety 
classes can help. It was his idea to invite the local news TV to paddle 
symposiums and give them telegenic pictures of people in the water 
struggling with getting back in. A short human interest spot on the 
local news discussing safety can reach a lot of people without much 
cost.

It is probably better to get out front promoting safety than to try and 
fight off every stupid piece of legislation that comes along.


Nick Schade

Guillemot Kayaks
824 Thompson St
Glastonbury, CT 06033
USA
Ph/Fx: (860) 659-8847
http://www.guillemot-kayaks.com/

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From: Dave Kruger <kdruger_at_pacifier.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 13:45:25 -0700
 "Nick Schade" <nick_at_guillemot-kayaks.com> wrote:

> It is probably better to get out front promoting safety than to try and
> fight off every stupid piece of legislation that comes along.

Agree.  Paddlers need to be proactive on this.  I'm not an organization guy,
but I see the value of organizations like ACA and the like to promote
education programs ahead of any hammer that a law-making body might shape.
I'm a long-time chemist, and my professional organization (ACS) has gone to
bat for me and my kind many times.  Well worth the $140/year I pay.

Nick's other comment [snipped away] about the effects of Power Squadron
classes and the like on reducing power boat casualties  is pertinent here,
also.  Those classes are not required to operate a power boat in Oregon,
AFAIK, but they may help to reduce the liability insurance cost for a power
boat operator/owner.

I am not suggesting they are an exact parallel for what we need or do, but
probably there needs to be some tangible motivator to get neophyte paddlers
to take similar classes.  I'm all for the carrot as a motivator, rather than
the stick.

It is seems certain that the increase in documented paddlesport deaths from
43 in 1996 to 103 in 2000 is likely to grab the attention of lawmakers in
many states.  Figures like that often prompt lawmakers to do something, and
they need guidance from us.

--
Dave Kruger
Astoria, OR

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From: Mark Sanders <sandmarks_at_attbi.com>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 13:47:46 -0700
> What do you get?  Half the time, some
> pretty silly laws,


At least California is trying to pass a law so I can't be discriminated
against when I'm wearing my spray skirt!   Mark Sanders

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From: Steve Brown <steve_at_brown-web.net>
subject: RE: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 17:39:29 -0700
This gets back to what I said. People not dying or needing outside help
is a non event that is never reported. One way of gather some
information is to take a poll on this list.
Basically, ask people to report incidents over the past year (or years)
that they witnessed or were a part of, in which wearing a PFD was a
decisive safety factor.
There is some subjectivity to this. For example, we were out surfing in
some storm surf recently when Vickie missed repeated roll attempts and
took a swim. By the time I saw it she was being recirculated by a strong
rip pulling her out, and 7+ foot plunging waves driving her back in.
Even with a PFD she was spending fairly long periods of time with her
head under water. I almost went after her, but she was gradually making
progress and seemed to be getting enough air. My subjective opinion is
that we would have had to intervene to keep her from drowning if she
were not wearing a PFD. FYI: She was wearing a dry top over a farmer
john.
Five minutes later the same thing happened to a man in our group who was
an experienced and current class 5 whitewater paddler. He was doing a
better job keeping his head above water, so it is not as clear what
would have happened had he not been wearing a PFD. I would probably ask
him how he felt about his prospects without a PFD before reporting it.
Someone would have to volunteer to take the information and compile in
some logical way. 
Any volunteer?

             Steve Brown

....It would also be necessary to know what percentage of the people who
didn't die were wearing PFDs.....
--
Dave Kruger
Astoria, OR



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From: <KiAyker_at_aol.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 20:58:05 EDT
> This gets back to what I said. People not dying or needing outside help
> is a non event that is never reported. One way of gather some
> information is to take a poll on this list.
> Basically, ask people to report incidents over the past year (or years)
> that they witnessed or were a part of, in which wearing a PFD was a
> decisive safety factor.

   Some time ago I was ill for a prolonged period of time, a couple of weeks. 
I finally decided to go see a doctor. Unfortunately the first appointment the 
doctor had open was a week and a half away. By the time the day of the 
appointment came around I was feeling much better and canceled it. Had I been 
able to promptly see the doctor I would have no doubt given him the credit 
for my recovery, despite the fact that, at least in this case, I would have 
recovered just the same without him.
   There is no way one can be subjective about the near misses.

Scott
So.Cal.

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