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From: <KiAyker_at_aol.com>
subject: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Wed, 23 Apr 2003 21:17:10 EDT
>>I  just finished reading the 32 page ACA study "CRITICAL JUDGMENT: 

>>THIS REPORT DOES NOT 
>>SEPERATE KAYAK DEATH BY WHITEWATER OR FLATWATER.  

>>50% of fatal kayak accidents occurred while wearing a PFD, 44% while not 
>>wearing a PFD (no explanation for the other 6%). 

 
   When I first read this I thought, like you, that the numbers were probably 
skewed by the whitewater fatalities. I would sure like to see a study done of 
only sea kayaking related incidents. Unfortunately I do not know of any data 
base available for such a study --- or maybe I do! It occurred to me that I 
do have a collection of data, of sorts, in all of my back issues of "Sea 
Kayaker Magazine." Since the beginning SK has been putting out a safety 
column in which it regularly reports on sea kayaking mishaps. So on a whim I 
got out my back issues and went to work.
   While I have every issue of "Sea Kayaker Magazine," I'm afraid that my 
filing system leaves something to be desired, so I was unable to find seven 
issues. They are around someplace and will show up eventually, but in the 
meantime that leaves 87 issues for my "study." In those 87 issues I found 21 
stories of kayaking fatalities. Of those 21 stories there were 5 fatalities 
of which it could not be determined from the article whether or not the 
victims were wearing pfd's. What I found among the remaining 20 fatalities 
really surprised me.
   There were 2 people who died, one in a floater suit, and another in a 
survival suit which is rated by the Coast Guard as a flotation device, 
without pfd's. While I personally would include these in the "with pfd" 
category, I recognize that someone could argue that technically they were not 
wearing a pfd, so I put them in a category by themselves labeled "other." Now 
the surprising part --- 8 people died without a pfd and 10 died while wearing 
one! If you crunch the numbers then you find that according to my SK survey, 
50% died with the pfd, 40% died without and 10% are in the "other" category.
   So the question is, does my little SK survey accurately reflect what is 
happening in the world of sea kayaking? Probably not. But then again, my 
percentages are startlingly close to the ACA's findings of 50%, 44% and 6%! 
In both the ACA report and my own SK survey, which I would like to remind you 
deals only with sea kayaking related incidents, the percentage of people 
dying with their pfd on is higher then that of those who died without it! Why 
is that?
   While Steve may wax poetic about all of the people who are alive today as 
a result of being saved by their pfd's in a near miss, I would have to 
believe that if this was in fact the case then the numbers here would lean 
much more significantly towards the pfd's then they do. I find myself 
wondering if any, and how many, of the fatalities might have in fact occurred 
as the result of a swimmer being unable to reach shore, or even their own 
boat, as a result of their swimming efforts being impeded by the bulk of 
their own pfd. Or perhaps they chose not to attempt to make the swim to shore 
when that would have been the better option, having been seduced into 
believing that they were going to be OK since they were wearing their pfd. 
But of course neither my scenario's or Steve's are really worth any real 
consideration since they are both little more then groundless speculation.
   In putting together my SK survey I decided to concentrate only on the 
fatalities as I believe the near misses leave too many variables to be 
accounted for. For example, in Volume 2 Number 3 winter 1985 issue is a story 
of a husband and wife that capsized in a double. He was wearing a pfd and 
survived, while she was not wearing a pfd and died. While it would be easy to 
use this incident as proof of the effectiveness of pfd's, the details of the 
accident, I feel, seem to indicate that the woman may have succumb to sudden 
drowning syndrome, and could have ended up dead with or without a pfd on. 
There is no way we can know for sure. In another incident, Volume 6 Number 3 
winter 1989/1990, two brothers capsized in a double. The first brother was 
believed to have removed his pfd after the capsize in order to better swim to 
shore - he didn't make it. Again, it would be very easy to suggest that he 
may have fared much better had he kept his pfd on. Of course it must be noted 
that the second brother was found dead as well --- wearing his pfd.
   So just what does this all mean? I really don't know. But I think it's all 
very interesting. I must point out, however, that it would seem that both the 
ACA report and my SK survey seem to support, at least on the surface, what I 
have been saying all along. That is, in my opinion, the effectiveness of 
pfd's in your typical sea kayaking scenario is greatly over rated.

Scott
So.Cal.

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From: Geoff Jennings <geoff_at_sedakayak.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 09:09:39 -0700
[Moderator's Note: Content unaltered. Excessive quoting (i.e.  headers/footers/sig lines/extraneous text from previous posts, etc.) have been removed. Please edit quoted material in addition to removing header/trailers when replying to posts.]

Off course, the difficulty  is deeper than that.   It would also be
necessary to know what percentage of the people who didn't die were wearing
PFDs.   In whitewater, it's VERY rare to see a kayaker without a PFD on.
So I would imagine that the majority of deaths in ww would involve people
wearing PFDs.

In your sea Kayaker study, it would be interesting to know what percentage
of "sea Kayakers" are wearing PFDs. If 85% of Kayakers are wearing them, and
they only account for 56% of deaths, then it would suggest that you're
better off with them that without...

I'm not saying that the case, just that those numbers alone leave something
to be desired when drawing conclusions about their effectiveness.

I almost always wear mine in my seakayak.  Always in the whitewater.
Sometimes in the surf.


Geoff Jennings 619-336-2444 800-322-SEDA geoff_at_sedakayak.com
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From: Wes Boyd <boydwe_at_dmci.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 20:22:45
At 09:17 PM 4/23/03 EDT, KiAyker_at_aol.com wrote:
>>>I  just finished reading the 32 page ACA study "CRITICAL JUDGMENT: 


(snip)
>   While Steve may wax poetic about all of the people who are alive today as 
>a result of being saved by their pfd's in a near miss, I would have to 
>believe that if this was in fact the case then the numbers here would lean 
>much more significantly towards the pfd's then they do. I find myself 
>wondering if any, and how many, of the fatalities might have in fact
occurred 
>as the result of a swimmer being unable to reach shore, or even their own 
>boat, as a result of their swimming efforts being impeded by the bulk of 
>their own pfd. Or perhaps they chose not to attempt to make the swim to
shore 
>when that would have been the better option, having been seduced into 
>believing that they were going to be OK since they were wearing their pfd. 
>But of course neither my scenario's or Steve's are really worth any real 
>consideration since they are both little more then groundless speculation.

I read this over this morning and it's been bugging me all day. It strikes
me that a lot of the real question lies buried in areas that just aren't
reported. 
That's pretty obvious, but sort of begs the question -- is it politically
correct to report the real facts?

The point that bugs me concerns auto accidents and seat belts. A little off
topic, perhaps, but bear with me. One of the downsides of my job running a
weekly country newspaper is that I have to go to more personal injury (PI)
accidents than I want to -- I've been to too many over the years. We had a
couple horrific ones late last year, in which, in two separate accidents,
people wearing seat belts were killed. In one case, the seat belt trapped a
young kid in a burning vehicle, bringing a horrible and painful death.
(Thank God I got there way late!) The other was a little more ambiguous,
and I didn't go to that one at all, but the cops and EMTs I talked to off
the record are pretty much of the opinion that the passenger might well
have survived had they not been wearing a seat belt.

But seat belts are good, right? The government tells us so. Why do they
think so?

Two or three times I've discussed similar incidents with the cops that
write the accident report, and the only part on the reporting form that
they have to fill out is whether the victim was wearing a seat belt or not.
Whether it contributed to the fatality isn't a subject on the form -- so
can't be easily pulled out from the reports. You have to dig into the
reports themselves, or go to coroners reports and the like, and often then
you don't get a clearcut figure.

We had, if I recall correctly, 12 fatal auto accidents in this county last
year. I don't know about the other accidents -- they were outside my
coverage area -- but 17% of those deaths might have been prevented by NOT
wearing a seat belt. But you'd face a hell of time trying to sell that
observation against all the lobbyies and whiners and handwringers and
bureaucrats that are convinced that they know what's best for you.

Sure would be interesting to know how many boating/water fatalities could
have been prevented by NOT wearing a PFD.

-- Wes

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Kayaks for Big Guys (And Gals) | Trip Reports | Places To Go | Boats & Gear
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From: Gary J. MacDonald <garyj_at_rogers.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Numbers Crunching
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 20:47:14 -0400
Wes Boyd wrote:

(snippery)

> The other was a little more ambiguous,
> and I didn't go to that one at all, but the cops and EMTs I talked to off
> the record are pretty much of the opinion that the passenger might well
> have survived had they not been wearing a seat belt.
> 
> But seat belts are good, right? The government tells us so. Why do they
> think so?

In analyses of large numbers of accidents, and injuries, seat belts are 
a net helper.  They reduce mortality and morbidity.  In some cases, they 
may increase injury.  But in many more they reduce it.  Few survive 
being ejected, but few are ejected if belted and belts save lives on 
that alone.  Low speed accidents can kill unbelted occupants, but 
practically never belted ones.  (I have often thought that if you are 
carjacked and he is unbleted, ram something at about 40-50 kph.)

Statistically seatbelts save lives, but some very few times they take 
them.  We have to go with saving many even if it might enhance the risk 
of the few, since all benefit equally from the statistical tradeoff.

Rear seat passengers ought to be belted too.  Was a well-publicised 
accident 20-odd yrs ago:  2 couples, guys in front with belts, wives in 
back without.  Frontal impact.  Guys snap ahead on belts and rebound to 
their seats just as unbelted wives are being catapulted forward and 
decapitate both men.  Yuck.

BTW, it is important to wear belts on hip-bones and not soft abdomen.

> Sure would be interesting to know how many boating/water fatalities could
> have been prevented by NOT wearing a PFD.

In whitewater the usual thought AIUI is that without you might be able 
to swim under a downed tree that is straining the flow (iff it has no 
branches underwater to snag you and drown you for sure) or dive out of a 
hydraulic if you can dive deep to the downstream flow.  Otherwise, the 
PFD helps.

I suppose in some cases you might be able to paddle faster without, and 
thus reach safety from a sorm or larege vessel.  You might be cooler and 
not suffer heatstroke or dehydration, but those are as extreme as the 
other situations, and we hear of few fatalities due to these causes.

GaryJ
-- 
Director, Family Canoeing Centre
Recreational canoeing courses for the whole family.

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