In following up on the latest in the group dynamics thread, I found myself wondering about the other side of the coin..... The thread seemed to start with discussion on pre-event risk assessment/analysis and the trip decision-making process. Other discussions have focused on post-event, near-miss deconstruction (a la DEEP TROUBLE). While the experience of fatal or near fatal events provides effective feedback on the preceding sequence of conscious or unconscious decision-making, there is another process and learning opportunity. Although less hair raising and dramatic, it comes from analysing those situations where you have planned for a trip (day trip or longer), were all set to launch, and then exercised judgement to not go, for some variety of reasons, or otherwise significantly deviated from the plan. In this type of scenario, you don't really know how close you might have come to guessing wrong....would launching still have resulted in an experience and outcome within yours or the group's comfort zone, or would it have resulted in a fatality or near-fatality (and I'll beg the question of what is a near-fatality!). But it seems to me that it requires certain skills to be able to reach a decison that says, in spite of the planning and commitment to this specific trip, (and any Conquer drive I might have to "JUST DO IT"), "I will not launch because....." Borrowing another cliche....learning when and how to "JUST SAY NO" may be just as essential a skill as paddling techniques and equipment. So, do you have stories of pre-event decison making that we can learn from...even if it less dramatic? One that comes to mind for me had 2 happy outcomes.... A few years ago my wife and I planned a trip to the Broken Islands (west coast Vancouver Island, British Columbia). In the week prior to the trip there were major storms and regular gale force winds crashing through the area. Up to the day before departure we were uncertain as to whether we would even bother, but then the weather started to improve. We headed up to Toquart Bay and launched and spent the next 5 dyas or so exloring the area under the blessing of pleasant weather. Nearing the end of the trip, we were still going to stay for another day or so, but we had been using our VHF several times per day to track the weather report changes. They began to sound more ominous through the Thursday and we got up early Friday morning to one that suggested a storm might be coming through by mid-afternoon. We decided to quickly de-camp and try to get back to the shelter of Toquart Bay before noon, rather than staying the extra day or two that we initially aimed for. Our paddle back was relatively uneventful, apart from frequent glances over our shoulders at the approaching storm front. It did turn out to be somewhat nasty, but by then we were off the water and trying to figure out what to do with the flat tire on our motor home. All in all...a boring story. Maybe we could have stayed another few hours, maybe we could have been stranded for 5 days, maybe we could have capsized after feeling forced to paddle in conditions we shouldn't have been in.... we will never know or have that feedback. On the other hand, assessing our skills and paddling abilities, considering the recent weather patterns, and listening closely to the weather resulted in a preventative decision, one that I feel we made wisely, even if it went against the original plan. The second happy outcome to this story, as an aside, is that we pulled out moments before another couple did. We had met them very briefly one one of our lunch pull-outs a few days previous. Not only did they have a tire pump we borrowed, we have become close friends and regular vacationers/paddlers. Timing is everything. Sam Isaacs saisaacs_at_netcom.ca *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
Sam and Ann Isaacs wrote: --snip-- > In this type of scenario, you don't really know how close you might > have > come to guessing wrong....would launching still have resulted in an > experience and outcome within yours or the group's comfort zone, or > would > it have resulted in a fatality or near-fatality (and I'll beg the > question > of what is a near-fatality!). > > But it seems to me that it requires certain skills to be able to reach > a > decison that says, in spite of the planning and commitment to this > specific > trip, (and any Conquer drive I might have to "JUST DO IT"), "I will > not > launch because....." > > Borrowing another cliche....learning when and how to "JUST SAY NO" may > be > just as essential a skill as paddling techniques and equipment. > > So, do you have stories of pre-event decison making that we can learn > from...even if it less dramatic? --snip of a couple of excellent examples of saying no-- Example of avoided problems? Lots and lots. They can be identified in two ways: first, if you pull out but someone else of similar ability and experience continues on; and second, if you can break down the objective risks, the relative skills of the paddlers, and then quantify the probability of their success. I am partial to this latter approach because it helps me decide how much risk I am willing to take. Probably one of the worst examples of pulling out while others continued in which I have been personally involved took place on the Petawawa River approximately twenty-five years ago. The river was in spate, but most of my gang still chose to run most of the rapids, even though they were being spattered. At the bottom of the Natch, a normally simple V, several of us took out rather than running. Others of our group proceeded and ran into trouble, including swims that caused hypothermia problems. The next group through that day had the same difficulties, and one person died. The correct decision given the conditions, our skills, and our equipment (god awful tubs for canoes and no wet suits) was to take out. It was proven by those who did not take out. You can read about it in Bill Mason's "Path of the Paddle" in his section on landing in a current. A less tragic example is Dave X's shoulder dislocation on the Kipawa's Elbow. Dave is technically competent in class IV, but for some reason he zombies every time on this rapid. He has attempted running it many times. More often than not, he has swam. When he has swam, more often than not he has been banged up. Therefore, given his past performance, it was probable that he would get hurt. He ignored the odds, attempted the run, and dislocated his shoulder. On a slightly sadistic level, when I teach wild water I have my students identify the various problems in the the rapid, identify the skills needed to mitigate these problems, evaluate the skills of each member in the group, and decide who has what chance of making the run successfully. Eventually they get pretty good at assigning probabilities. It's sort of fun to watch them make bets for and against each other. On a more serious level, it helps them develop faith in their analyses, for they see what happens if they do not make good decisions. The trick as an instructor is to encourage correct analyses and appropriate actions based on these analyses, rather than promote challenging the river. I reward my students if they act upon their analyses. I don't really care how quickly they progress in learning how to run rapids, but I do care that they only act according to their analyses. If they analyse a run and make it, or if the analyse a run and blow it, or if they analyse a run and portage it, I reward them equally. If they want to make a run, or if they wish to portage a run, they must go through their analysis with me and the rest of the group. The focus is on who can make the most reliable analysis, rather than who can run the most challenging water. The successful student is one who is able to show how he or she came to a decision, and then over time becomes confident in acting upon the decision -- what the decision was is not relevant. Richard Culpeper www.geocities.com/~culpeper *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
Karen Smith and I had an enjoyable paddle one afternoon earlier this week. We floated down Medway Creek, which is a class I run though the outskirts of Lonon. We came upon lots of white-tail deer, and even some green grass. What we could not get over was that it was still February, which for around here usually means solid ice, snowbanks and the like. I had no idea that the Canada-USA-Mexico free trade agreement would affect our climate so much. As much as I like paddling, I miss my winter. Should I appeal to the parallel accord's Committee for Environmental Cooperation to get things set back the way they were? Richard Culpeper www.geocities.com/~culpeper *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
Richard wrote; (SNIP) >I had no idea that the Canada-USA-Mexico free trade agreement would >affect our climate so much. As much as I like paddling, I miss my >winter. Should I appeal to the parallel accord's Committee for >Environmental Cooperation to get things set back the way they were? All you environmentalists are alike. Never willing to accept change. I bet that if you lived here 16,000 years ago you would be complaining that global arming was melting all the ice and would soon destroy the planet. John Winters Redwing Designs Specialists in Human Powered Watercraft http://home.ican.net/~735769/ *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
Sam wrote; (SNIP) >Borrowing another cliche....learning when and how to "JUST SAY NO" may be >just as essential a skill as paddling techniques and equipment. > (SNIP) This is the most important skill anyone can develop. Richard raises a good point about outside pressures to do something that you might not normally do. In conjunction with group pressures they form what I call group tyranny. We have all heard the stale jokes about Jewish mothers but guilt is a powerful motivation. Fear is transient, guilt stays with us. It is the fear of guilt that often compels us to act against out personal best interest. How powerful is it? Ben Shalit surveyed soldiers to find out what frightened them in war and it was not the death but of "letting others down" they feared most. It seem to me that this was at work for Diane. She knew better but still tagged along with Trisha. Richard wrote about clubs and their safety focus. Having been one of the early members of the WCA I can still recall the arguments over the "leader"/"organiser" thing while we were trying to define what the WCA should be. In substance I agree with Richard but I would like to offer another possibility and that is that clubs need to define their role better. Instead of being all things to all paddlers they might be better of to narrowly define what they do and will do. In the early days of the WCA many of us rejected the instructional format in favour of learning in the exploratory mode. I still recall one trip organised to learn how to pole a canoe. No one knew how to pole but people went to learn how the "hard way": We started at a low challenge level and worked our way up. We considered the spoon feeding of formal instruction beneath us. One can argue the point over which is best (I feel both methods, learn-by-doing and learn-through-instruction are valid for specific people) but it seems to me that clubs that try to do both get into trouble. The instruction people refuse to acknowledge anything that doesn't grant a certificate and the learn-by-doing people scoff at those who didn't come up through the ranks. I believe that one things we learned by doing it the hard way was to acknowledge and respond appropriately to fear. This, I believe is something the creditocracy method often neglects. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
John Winters wrote: --snip-- > I believe that one things we learned by doing it the hard way was to > acknowledge and respond appropriately to fear. This, I believe is > something > the creditocracy method often neglects. --snip-- About four years back a fellow came to the Sudbury Canoe Club looking for an internship (I can see where this post will be taken already). He needed to complete a practicum as part of his Outdoor Adventure Leadership degree. He said that he was certified by the Ontario Wild Water Affiliation (OWWA) as an instructor. To check him out, we brought him along with a novice trip on the Ottawa. To make a long story short, he swam eighteen times on the first day, and wisely chose not to paddle the second day. All the novices together over the weekend only swam under half a dozen times. For the drive home he was sharing a ride with one of the club's senior instructors. The last I saw of him before the drive, he was telling the instructor (a petite woman) how to tie on the boats. That evening I received a call from the instructor complaining that this fellow had been a back-seat driver for the entire five hour trip home. I had a chat with the fellow later in the week, and learned that this was his first time on wild water! It turns out that the OWWA had instituted a new series of hero-badges, including one which certifies folks to instruct in a pool. Needless to say, everyone at the club (except for the instructor who had to put up with him on the drive) had a good laugh over this, but we were also concerned that here was a fellow who was running about collecting hero-badges as part of his degree, and who hoped to gain professional employment based upon these qualifications, but who had never bothered to put in a few years "learning the hard way". Big mistake on his part, and a bigger mistake for anyone who trusts in hero-badges when hiring. Richard Culpeper www.geocities.com/~culpeper *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List Submissions: paddlewise_at_lists.intelenet.net Subscriptions: paddlewise-request_at_lists.intelenet.net Website: http://www.gasp-seakayak.net/paddlewise/ ***************************************************************************
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